Which seat is more likely to go Democratic: WY-AL or OH-02?

[MarkWarner08]

Both seats are occupied by "odd" Republican women with a penchant for making controversial remarks. They are both heavily Republican and they are both only competitive because of thew personal vulnerabilities of the incumbents and because of the national climate.

Any predictions on these races? I think Gary Trauner will fall just short and Victoria Wulsin will narrowly upset Jean Schimdt. As Ms. Wulsin said at one of her rallies, "the voters of the 2nd district are tired of all Schmidt in Washington."

[MarkWarner08]

ID-01, CA-11, CA-04 and KS-02 are some more races that will fall if there's what Charlie Cook calls a "Category 5 Political Hurricane."

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

ID-01, CA-11, CA-04 and KS-02 are some more races that will fall if there's what Charlie Cook calls a "Category 5 Political Hurricane."

I don't think CA-11 needs catagory 5.

[Sam Spade]

ID-01, CA-11, CA-04 and KS-02 are some more races that will fall if there's what Charlie Cook calls a "Category 5 Political Hurricane."

ID-01 and CA-11 are in a different realm than CA-04 and KS-02.

[MarkWarner08]

ID-01, CA-11, CA-04 and KS-02 are some more races that will fall if there's what Charlie Cook calls a "Category 5 Political Hurricane."

ID-01 and CA-11 are in a different realm than CA-04 and KS-02.

A Category 1 means the GOP holds Congress by a nearly unscathed margin.
Category 2 is a 6-8 seat gain for Democrats in the House and a 2-3 seat gain in the Senate.
Category 3 clocks in at 12-14 in the House and 3-5 in the Senate.
Category 4 gives the Democrats a 15-20 seat gain in the House and a 4-5 seat gain in the Senate
Category 5 is 20+ in the House and 5-7 in the Senate.

ID-01 once another crazy Republican candidate for Congress. Remember who it was? Helen Chenoweth, a Republican who well-respected lawyer Dan Williams narrowly lost to in 1996 and 1998.  That was when the district was less Republican. The problem for Grant is that the district has a built in 15-20 point cushion for Bill Sali to still win.


CA-11 is another gerrymandered monstrosity that will need a Cat 5 political hurricane to go Democratic.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

So the same Category that Katrina was when it hit New Orleans keeps the far right-wing Republicans in control of the House?

[DownWithTheLeft]

Catergory 2 or 3 is most likely

[Deano963]

I say OH-02 because Mean Jean will be getting absolutely no help whatsoever from the top of the statewide Republican ticket. In fact, it will hurt her. Blackwell's landslide loss and Dewine's defeat will hurt all of the threatened Republican incumbents statewide, actually.

Hell, if Blackwell keeps imploding up until Election Day, OH-12 might even flip, on top pf OH-18, OH-15, OH-01 and of course OH-02. As of right now I do think the 2nd and 12th Disttricts stay GOP though.

[Deano963]

ID-01, CA-11, CA-04 and KS-02 are some more races that will fall if there's what Charlie Cook calls a "Category 5 Political Hurricane."

Don't forget NE-03.

[MarkWarner08]

So the same Category that Katrina was when it hit New Orleans keeps the far right-wing Republicans in control of the House?

15-20 seats give the Democrats the House. That range doesn't include the indy seat in VT which will likely go to Peter Welch. This means the true gain is 15 +1 meaning the math is 202 +16  = 218 seats.

[MarkWarner08]

ID-01, CA-11, CA-04 and KS-02 are some more races that will fall if there's what Charlie Cook calls a "Category 5 Political Hurricane."

Don't forget NE-03.

Good point. That's a race that is solely competitive because of Scott Kleeb's strong campaign. My prediction is Adrian Smith wins by 7%.

[Sam Spade]

ID-01, CA-11, CA-04 and KS-02 are some more races that will fall if there's what Charlie Cook calls a "Category 5 Political Hurricane."

ID-01 and CA-11 are in a different realm than CA-04 and KS-02.

A Category 1 means the GOP holds Congress by a nearly unscathed margin.
Category 2 is a 6-8 seat gain for Democrats in the House and a 2-3 seat gain in the Senate.
Category 3 clocks in at 12-14 in the House and 3-5 in the Senate.
Category 4 gives the Democrats a 15-20 seat gain in the House and a 4-5 seat gain in the Senate
Category 5 is 20+ in the House and 5-7 in the Senate.

ID-01 once another crazy Republican candidate for Congress. Remember who it was? Helen Chenoweth, a Republican who well-respected lawyer Dan Williams narrowly lost to in 1996 and 1998.  That was when the district was less Republican. The problem for Grant is that the district has a built in 15-20 point cushion for Bill Sali to still win.


CA-11 is another gerrymandered monstrosity that will need a Cat 5 political hurricane to go Democratic.

Your categories are all wrong.  In terms of politics, the categories are relative.

In this political cycle, here's what the categories mean:

Tropical Storm:  "NJ Hack's" fantasy.
Category 1:  8-10 House seats are lost for the GOP and 2-3 Senate seats.
Category 2:  13-17 House seats are lost for the GOP and 3-4 Senate seats
Category 3:  20-25 House seats are lost for the GOP and 4-5 Senate seats
Category 4:  30-35 House seats are lost for the GOP and 5-7 Senate seats
Category 5:  40-45 House seats are lost for the GOP and 7-8 Senate seats. 

Even though Stuart Rothenberg's list indicates Category 3, he maintains it will Category 5 for some reason.  I can't explain this.

Right now, it's a light category 3 hurricane and its about 100 miles from shore.  Every weather projection has it heading your way.  Maybe the forecasters are incorrectly calling the strength and direction of this thing, but it seems obvious to everyone else (like Katrina).

[Sam Spade]

ID-01, CA-11, CA-04 and KS-02 are some more races that will fall if there's what Charlie Cook calls a "Category 5 Political Hurricane."

Don't forget NE-03.

Good point. That's a race that is solely competitive because of Scott Kleeb's strong campaign. My prediction is Adrian Smith wins by 7%.

The race is solely competitive because Adrian Smith goes out and touts that he's against farm subsidies in an extremely rural district.  Add to that he's taking money for Club for Growth and outsiders aren't looked at positively here.

[MarkWarner08]

ID-01, CA-11, CA-04 and KS-02 are some more races that will fall if there's what Charlie Cook calls a "Category 5 Political Hurricane."

Don't forget NE-03.

Good point. That's a race that is solely competitive because of Scott Kleeb's strong campaign. My prediction is Adrian Smith wins by 7%.

The race is solely competitive because Adrian Smith goes out and touts that he's against farm subsidies in an extremely rural district.  Add to that he's taking money for Club for Growth and outsiders aren't looked at positively here.

I'm disappoint that you won't admit that a Democrat who raises 700k in a blood red district is at least somewhat responsible for the competitiveness of this race.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The race is solely competitive because Adrian Smith goes out and touts that he's against farm subsidies in an extremely rural district.

A candidate really is that stupid? Amazing...

[MarkWarner08]

ID-01, CA-11, CA-04 and KS-02 are some more races that will fall if there's what Charlie Cook calls a "Category 5 Political Hurricane."

ID-01 and CA-11 are in a different realm than CA-04 and KS-02.

A Category 1 means the GOP holds Congress by a nearly unscathed margin.
Category 2 is a 6-8 seat gain for Democrats in the House and a 2-3 seat gain in the Senate.
Category 3 clocks in at 12-14 in the House and 3-5 in the Senate.
Category 4 gives the Democrats a 15-20 seat gain in the House and a 4-5 seat gain in the Senate
Category 5 is 20+ in the House and 5-7 in the Senate.

ID-01 once another crazy Republican candidate for Congress. Remember who it was? Helen Chenoweth, a Republican who well-respected lawyer Dan Williams narrowly lost to in 1996 and 1998.  That was when the district was less Republican. The problem for Grant is that the district has a built in 15-20 point cushion for Bill Sali to still win.


CA-11 is another gerrymandered monstrosity that will need a Cat 5 political hurricane to go Democratic.

Your categories are all wrong.  In terms of politics, the categories are relative.

In this political cycle, here's what the categories mean:

Tropical Storm:  "NJ Hack's" fantasy.
Category 1:  8-10 House seats are lost for the GOP and 2-3 Senate seats.
Category 2:  13-17 House seats are lost for the GOP and 3-4 Senate seats
Category 3:  20-25 House seats are lost for the GOP and 4-5 Senate seats
Category 4:  30-35 House seats are lost for the GOP and 5-7 Senate seats
Category 5:  40-45 House seats are lost for the GOP and 7-8 Senate seats. 

Even though Stuart Rothenberg's list indicates Category 3, he maintains it will Category 5 for some reason.  I can't explain this.

Right now, it's a light category 3 hurricane and its about 100 miles from shore.  Every weather projection has it heading your way.  Maybe the forecasters are incorrectly calling the strength and direction of this thing, but it seems obvious to everyone else (like Katrina).

I'm happy to hear that you've delineated the number seats in what is a highly arbitrary way to measure an election.  I try to look at races from both a local standpoint (what are the local factors) and a national viewpoint. From my vantage point in Oregon, I see Democrats winning 5-7 Senate seats and 20+ House seats. The reason I don't elaborate further on the number of House seats is because of the volatility of many races. We all know that if there's a Cat 5 wave, we'll see a a handful of David Funderbunk or Michael Flanagan types elected to Congress.

Zack Space, Chris Carney, Joe Donnelly and Nick Lampson all come to mind as Democrats who shouldn't win in '06 and will lose in '08.

[MarkWarner08]

The race is solely competitive because Adrian Smith goes out and touts that he's against farm subsidies in an extremely rural district.

A candidate really is that stupid? Amazing...

See Jean Schmidt in OH-02 on Nuclear Waste. This is what happens when Republicans put ideology over common sense.

[Sam Spade]

ID-01, CA-11, CA-04 and KS-02 are some more races that will fall if there's what Charlie Cook calls a "Category 5 Political Hurricane."

ID-01 and CA-11 are in a different realm than CA-04 and KS-02.

A Category 1 means the GOP holds Congress by a nearly unscathed margin.
Category 2 is a 6-8 seat gain for Democrats in the House and a 2-3 seat gain in the Senate.
Category 3 clocks in at 12-14 in the House and 3-5 in the Senate.
Category 4 gives the Democrats a 15-20 seat gain in the House and a 4-5 seat gain in the Senate
Category 5 is 20+ in the House and 5-7 in the Senate.

ID-01 once another crazy Republican candidate for Congress. Remember who it was? Helen Chenoweth, a Republican who well-respected lawyer Dan Williams narrowly lost to in 1996 and 1998.  That was when the district was less Republican. The problem for Grant is that the district has a built in 15-20 point cushion for Bill Sali to still win.


CA-11 is another gerrymandered monstrosity that will need a Cat 5 political hurricane to go Democratic.

Your categories are all wrong.  In terms of politics, the categories are relative.

In this political cycle, here's what the categories mean:

Tropical Storm:  "NJ Hack's" fantasy.
Category 1:  8-10 House seats are lost for the GOP and 2-3 Senate seats.
Category 2:  13-17 House seats are lost for the GOP and 3-4 Senate seats
Category 3:  20-25 House seats are lost for the GOP and 4-5 Senate seats
Category 4:  30-35 House seats are lost for the GOP and 5-7 Senate seats
Category 5:  40-45 House seats are lost for the GOP and 7-8 Senate seats. 

Even though Stuart Rothenberg's list indicates Category 3, he maintains it will Category 5 for some reason.  I can't explain this.

Right now, it's a light category 3 hurricane and its about 100 miles from shore.  Every weather projection has it heading your way.  Maybe the forecasters are incorrectly calling the strength and direction of this thing, but it seems obvious to everyone else (like Katrina).

I'm happy to hear that you've delineated the number seats in what is a highly arbitrary way to measure an election.  I try to look at races from both a local standpoint (what are the local factors) and a national viewpoint. From my vantage point in Oregon, I see Democrats winning 5-7 Senate seats and 20+ House seats. The reason I don't elaborate further on the number of House seats is because of the volatility of many races. We all know that if there's a Cat 5 wave, we'll see a a handful of David Funderbunk or Michael Flanagan types elected to Congress.

Zack Space, Chris Carney, Joe Donnelly and Nick Lampson all come to mind as Democrats who shouldn't win in '06 and will lose in '08.

It is interesting that you see the GOP more likely to lose Senate seats than House ones.  I see the House in much worse shape than the Senate presently and I think it is much more likely we'd see a 27 seat House loss and a 4 seat Senate loss, as opposed to seeing an 18 seat House loss and a 6 seat Senate loss.  Whenever I finish my House update, you'll see me at where Novak is, strangely enough.  -21 in the House for the GOP, -4 in the Senate.

Of the House incumbents I see losing, these seats stand a >50% of being lost back to the GOP in 2008: TX-22, PA-10, OH-18.  There are a number of other seats that could go back, but the odds won't start off dead set against them.

[MarkWarner08]

ID-01, CA-11, CA-04 and KS-02 are some more races that will fall if there's what Charlie Cook calls a "Category 5 Political Hurricane."

ID-01 and CA-11 are in a different realm than CA-04 and KS-02.

A Category 1 means the GOP holds Congress by a nearly unscathed margin.
Category 2 is a 6-8 seat gain for Democrats in the House and a 2-3 seat gain in the Senate.
Category 3 clocks in at 12-14 in the House and 3-5 in the Senate.
Category 4 gives the Democrats a 15-20 seat gain in the House and a 4-5 seat gain in the Senate
Category 5 is 20+ in the House and 5-7 in the Senate.

ID-01 once another crazy Republican candidate for Congress. Remember who it was? Helen Chenoweth, a Republican who well-respected lawyer Dan Williams narrowly lost to in 1996 and 1998.  That was when the district was less Republican. The problem for Grant is that the district has a built in 15-20 point cushion for Bill Sali to still win.


CA-11 is another gerrymandered monstrosity that will need a Cat 5 political hurricane to go Democratic.

Your categories are all wrong.  In terms of politics, the categories are relative.

In this political cycle, here's what the categories mean:

Tropical Storm:  "NJ Hack's" fantasy.
Category 1:  8-10 House seats are lost for the GOP and 2-3 Senate seats.
Category 2:  13-17 House seats are lost for the GOP and 3-4 Senate seats
Category 3:  20-25 House seats are lost for the GOP and 4-5 Senate seats
Category 4:  30-35 House seats are lost for the GOP and 5-7 Senate seats
Category 5:  40-45 House seats are lost for the GOP and 7-8 Senate seats. 

Even though Stuart Rothenberg's list indicates Category 3, he maintains it will Category 5 for some reason.  I can't explain this.

Right now, it's a light category 3 hurricane and its about 100 miles from shore.  Every weather projection has it heading your way.  Maybe the forecasters are incorrectly calling the strength and direction of this thing, but it seems obvious to everyone else (like Katrina).

I'm happy to hear that you've delineated the number seats in what is a highly arbitrary way to measure an election.  I try to look at races from both a local standpoint (what are the local factors) and a national viewpoint. From my vantage point in Oregon, I see Democrats winning 5-7 Senate seats and 20+ House seats. The reason I don't elaborate further on the number of House seats is because of the volatility of many races. We all know that if there's a Cat 5 wave, we'll see a a handful of David Funderbunk or Michael Flanagan types elected to Congress.

Zack Space, Chris Carney, Joe Donnelly and Nick Lampson all come to mind as Democrats who shouldn't win in '06 and will lose in '08.

It is interesting that you see the GOP more likely to lose Senate seats than House ones.  I see the House in much worse shape than the Senate presently and I think it is much more likely we'd see a 27 seat House loss and a 4 seat Senate loss, as opposed to seeing an 18 seat House loss and a 6 seat Senate loss.  Whenever I finish my House update, you'll see me at where Novak is, strangely enough.  -21 in the House for the GOP, -4 in the Senate.

Of the House incumbents I see losing, these seats stand a >50% of being lost back to the GOP in 2008: TX-22, PA-10, OH-18.  There are a number of other seats that could go back, but the odds won't start off dead set against them.

The Senate is more likely to shift party control than the House. The reason is that entire states are more likely to feel the national wave than individual House districts. The Senate has flipped control five times since 1990; the House has flipped once. The Senate flipped in 1995, January 2001 as Gore broke the tie, again in January as Cheney broke the tie, then in May 2001 when Jeffords jumped parties, then in 2003 when the GOP won back control.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

ID-01, CA-11, CA-04 and KS-02 are some more races that will fall if there's what Charlie Cook calls a "Category 5 Political Hurricane."

ID-01 and CA-11 are in a different realm than CA-04 and KS-02.

A Category 1 means the GOP holds Congress by a nearly unscathed margin.
Category 2 is a 6-8 seat gain for Democrats in the House and a 2-3 seat gain in the Senate.
Category 3 clocks in at 12-14 in the House and 3-5 in the Senate.
Category 4 gives the Democrats a 15-20 seat gain in the House and a 4-5 seat gain in the Senate
Category 5 is 20+ in the House and 5-7 in the Senate.

ID-01 once another crazy Republican candidate for Congress. Remember who it was? Helen Chenoweth, a Republican who well-respected lawyer Dan Williams narrowly lost to in 1996 and 1998.  That was when the district was less Republican. The problem for Grant is that the district has a built in 15-20 point cushion for Bill Sali to still win.


CA-11 is another gerrymandered monstrosity that will need a Cat 5 political hurricane to go Democratic.

Your categories are all wrong.  In terms of politics, the categories are relative.

In this political cycle, here's what the categories mean:

Tropical Storm:  "NJ Hack's" fantasy.
Category 1:  8-10 House seats are lost for the GOP and 2-3 Senate seats.
Category 2:  13-17 House seats are lost for the GOP and 3-4 Senate seats
Category 3:  20-25 House seats are lost for the GOP and 4-5 Senate seats
Category 4:  30-35 House seats are lost for the GOP and 5-7 Senate seats
Category 5:  40-45 House seats are lost for the GOP and 7-8 Senate seats. 

Even though Stuart Rothenberg's list indicates Category 3, he maintains it will Category 5 for some reason.  I can't explain this.

Right now, it's a light category 3 hurricane and its about 100 miles from shore.  Every weather projection has it heading your way.  Maybe the forecasters are incorrectly calling the strength and direction of this thing, but it seems obvious to everyone else (like Katrina).

I'm happy to hear that you've delineated the number seats in what is a highly arbitrary way to measure an election.  I try to look at races from both a local standpoint (what are the local factors) and a national viewpoint. From my vantage point in Oregon, I see Democrats winning 5-7 Senate seats and 20+ House seats. The reason I don't elaborate further on the number of House seats is because of the volatility of many races. We all know that if there's a Cat 5 wave, we'll see a a handful of David Funderbunk or Michael Flanagan types elected to Congress.

Zack Space, Chris Carney, Joe Donnelly and Nick Lampson all come to mind as Democrats who shouldn't win in '06 and will lose in '08.

Space, Carney and Donnelly could all hold on if they don't go that far to the left. It'll be tough races though.

Lampson is pretty much done unless DeLay decides to move back to the district and run again.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Donnelly's district was Democratic before 2002.

[Sam Spade]

The Senate is more likely to shift party control than the House. The reason is that entire states are more likely to feel the national wave than individual House districts. The Senate has flipped control five times since 1990; the House has flipped once. The Senate flipped in 1995, January 2001 as Gore broke the tie, again in January as Cheney broke the tie, then in May 2001 when Jeffords jumped parties, then in 2003 when the GOP won back control.

2000 was a rare election, in more ways than one.  But even that election didn't cause a flip.  Historically, the Senate has been more likely to flip than the House.  But why?

Because historically, and we can go back pretty far on this one, the chamber with the majority party holding the lesser percentage has usually been the one more likely to flip (and actually 2000 didn't flip it, as we both well know).  Only in very rare occasions (and I'd have to look up when) in the past 50-75 years has that chamber been the Senate and this is one of those rare occasions.

Percentages such as this do matter in my analysis.

[Sam Spade]

Space, Carney and Donnelly could all hold on if they don't go that far to the left. It'll be tough races though.

Lampson is pretty much done unless DeLay decides to move back to the district and run again.

Donnelly is not comparable with the other two (Al points out why).  The other two are closer to DeLay than pretty much all other CDs I see the GOP losing right now.

[MarkWarner08]

The Senate is more likely to shift party control than the House. The reason is that entire states are more likely to feel the national wave than individual House districts. The Senate has flipped control five times since 1990; the House has flipped once. The Senate flipped in 1995, January 2001 as Gore broke the tie, again in January as Cheney broke the tie, then in May 2001 when Jeffords jumped parties, then in 2003 when the GOP won back control.

1986 and 1980 are some more examples of the Senate flipping.  The House has flipped just 3 times in the last 74 years. The Senate did flip in 2001, albeit for a couple of weeks.

2000 was a rare election, in more ways than one.  But even that election didn't cause a flip.  Historically, the Senate has been more likely to flip than the House.  But why?

Because historically, and we can go back pretty far on this one, the chamber with the majority party holding the lesser percentage has usually been the one more likely to flip (and actually 2000 didn't flip it, as we both well know).  Only in very rare occasions (and I'd have to look up when) in the past 50-75 years has that chamber been the Senate and this is one of those rare occasions.

Percentages such as this do matter in my analysis.

[MarkWarner08]

Space, Carney and Donnelly could all hold on if they don't go that far to the left. It'll be tough races though.

Lampson is pretty much done unless DeLay decides to move back to the district and run again.

Donnelly is not comparable with the other two (Al points out why).  The other two are closer to DeLay than pretty much all other CDs I see the GOP losing right now.

Donnelly could lose for a couple of reasons. Indiana normally votes heavily Republican during Presidential years, Donnelly is a rather weak candidate who's lucky to be leading in this race and because of the large number of credible GOP challengers in that race. Donnelly will be a weaker freshman than Ellsworth who fits IN-08 like a glove or Hill who's a good fit for IN-9