Generic Ballot Observations

[Unelectable Bystander]

I noticed a couple of things related to the generic ballot released by morning consult and am interested in other reactions:
1) The congressional undecideds are overwhelmingly Biden disapprovers. This seems to be a theme in most generic ballots, but I thought this one was interesting because it had cross tabs. There were roughly 300 undecideds in the poll. About 100 were Biden STRONG disapprovers, 100 more were Biden somewhat disapprovers, and the remaining 100 were Biden approvers (with about 70% somewhat approving). I’m not sure if these people are undercover republicans or are truly undecided, but I think it’s fair to assume they will break hard republican if their opinion of Biden does not change. For this reason, looking at the Dem vote share in the generic ballot might be better than looking at margin.

2) 18-35 voters have been consistently more hostile towards Biden and more likely to vote republican than 35-44. Any guesses on why this is, or are we just headed towards a smaller age gap?

[Matty]

Youth turnout for the dems is going to be odious in 2022, worse than 2010 and 2014 probably (as % of the vote)

Biden was never the candidate of the youth, and he really hasn't delivered much for them.

[ElectionsGuy]

This says it all in the Morning Consult poll

Among Independents: 34% approve, 59% disapprove
Among Independents: 30% Democrat, 29% Republican

The generic ballot at this point is more ridiculously misleading than it has been in any other election.

In November 2018, Trump's approval was -9, and Dems led in the generic ballot by 7-8 points. Now, Biden's approval is -12, and R's only lead by... 1? Ok Jan. For whatever reason, these people just do not want to say they'd rather vote Republican, unlike in 2017-2018 when they were perfectly comfortable saying they'd vote Democrat. I can understand with how much dems and the media are going in with their shaming and social desirability campaign, but it's fairly obvious to those of us who've seen this movie before that these people will break overwhelmingly one way. It's just a shame because the misleading polling is going to be used by political hacks to craft a false narrative.

[BoiseBoy]

This says it all in the Morning Consult poll

Among Independents: 34% approve, 59% disapprove
Among Independents: 30% Democrat, 29% Republican

The generic ballot at this point is more ridiculously misleading than it has been in any other election.

In November 2018, Trump's approval was -9, and Dems led in the generic ballot by 7-8 points. Now, Biden's approval is -12, and R's only lead by... 1? Ok Jan. For whatever reason, these people just do not want to say they'd rather vote Republican, unlike in 2017-2018 when they were perfectly comfortable saying they'd vote Democrat. I can understand with how much dems and the media are going in with their shaming and social desirability campaign, but it's fairly obvious to those of us who've seen this movie before that these people will break overwhelmingly one way. It's just a shame because the misleading polling is going to be used by political hacks to craft a false narrative.

Speaking of political hacks…

[ElectionsGuy]

This says it all in the Morning Consult poll

Among Independents: 34% approve, 59% disapprove
Among Independents: 30% Democrat, 29% Republican

The generic ballot at this point is more ridiculously misleading than it has been in any other election.

In November 2018, Trump's approval was -9, and Dems led in the generic ballot by 7-8 points. Now, Biden's approval is -12, and R's only lead by... 1? Ok Jan. For whatever reason, these people just do not want to say they'd rather vote Republican, unlike in 2017-2018 when they were perfectly comfortable saying they'd vote Democrat. I can understand with how much dems and the media are going in with their shaming and social desirability campaign, but it's fairly obvious to those of us who've seen this movie before that these people will break overwhelmingly one way. It's just a shame because the misleading polling is going to be used by political hacks to craft a false narrative.

Speaking of political hacks…

Do you have a point you'd like to make?

[Mr.Phips]

Youth turnout for the dems is going to be odious in 2022, worse than 2010 and 2014 probably (as % of the vote)

Biden was never the candidate of the youth, and he really hasn't delivered much for them.

Youth turnout was pretty much rock bottom in 2010/2014.  Hard to get much worse than that.

[coloradocowboi]

Youth turnout for the dems is going to be odious in 2022, worse than 2010 and 2014 probably (as % of the vote)

Biden was never the candidate of the youth, and he really hasn't delivered much for them.

Youth turnout was pretty much rock bottom in 2010/2014.  Hard to get much worse than that.

Really depends on who Dems nominate in key races and whether Biden can turn it around with this demographic. No, lol, 18-35 are not swinging GOP. They are not gonna turn out though if Biden doesn't cancel student loans, and do more to reach this demo if Congress c*** blocks him.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We still have 10 Months before the Election Newsom and T Mac got the same amount of voted as Biden got in they're state we will get 8o M votes, but will the Rs whom represent as I said on the Biden Approval get 75 M votes again without Trump nope, they might get 70 or 65 M, but we Ds are 50 percent of the country

How can we hit Rick bottom in youth vote and Newsom and T Mac got the same amount of votes Biden got, Youngkin obviously, got more but that may not happen across the country as Elder lost


Anyways the youth vote will be energized, Breyer is expected to retire in June and that will throw a monkey wrench on R yakeover


Stop comparing 2010/14 we had 10 percent and 8 percent unemployment

[Ferguson97]

This says it all in the Morning Consult poll

Among Independents: 34% approve, 59% disapprove
Among Independents: 30% Democrat, 29% Republican

The generic ballot at this point is more ridiculously misleading than it has been in any other election.

In November 2018, Trump's approval was -9, and Dems led in the generic ballot by 7-8 points. Now, Biden's approval is -12, and R's only lead by... 1? Ok Jan. For whatever reason, these people just do not want to say they'd rather vote Republican, unlike in 2017-2018 when they were perfectly comfortable saying they'd vote Democrat. I can understand with how much dems and the media are going in with their shaming and social desirability campaign, but it's fairly obvious to those of us who've seen this movie before that these people will break overwhelmingly one way. It's just a shame because the misleading polling is going to be used by political hacks to craft a false narrative.

Is it possible people really dislike Biden's presidency but aren't ready to hand the keys back to the Republicans?

[SnowLabrador]

This says it all in the Morning Consult poll

Among Independents: 34% approve, 59% disapprove
Among Independents: 30% Democrat, 29% Republican

The generic ballot at this point is more ridiculously misleading than it has been in any other election.

In November 2018, Trump's approval was -9, and Dems led in the generic ballot by 7-8 points. Now, Biden's approval is -12, and R's only lead by... 1? Ok Jan. For whatever reason, these people just do not want to say they'd rather vote Republican, unlike in 2017-2018 when they were perfectly comfortable saying they'd vote Democrat. I can understand with how much dems and the media are going in with their shaming and social desirability campaign, but it's fairly obvious to those of us who've seen this movie before that these people will break overwhelmingly one way. It's just a shame because the misleading polling is going to be used by political hacks to craft a false narrative.

Is it possible people really dislike Biden's presidency but aren't ready to hand the keys back to the Republicans?

Of course. I'm one of these people.

[Mr.Phips]

This says it all in the Morning Consult poll

Among Independents: 34% approve, 59% disapprove
Among Independents: 30% Democrat, 29% Republican

The generic ballot at this point is more ridiculously misleading than it has been in any other election.

In November 2018, Trump's approval was -9, and Dems led in the generic ballot by 7-8 points. Now, Biden's approval is -12, and R's only lead by... 1? Ok Jan. For whatever reason, these people just do not want to say they'd rather vote Republican, unlike in 2017-2018 when they were perfectly comfortable saying they'd vote Democrat. I can understand with how much dems and the media are going in with their shaming and social desirability campaign, but it's fairly obvious to those of us who've seen this movie before that these people will break overwhelmingly one way. It's just a shame because the misleading polling is going to be used by political hacks to craft a false narrative.

Is it possible people really dislike Biden's presidency but aren't ready to hand the keys back to the Republicans?

Of course. I'm one of these people.

As am I.

[ElectionsGuy]

This says it all in the Morning Consult poll

Among Independents: 34% approve, 59% disapprove
Among Independents: 30% Democrat, 29% Republican

The generic ballot at this point is more ridiculously misleading than it has been in any other election.

In November 2018, Trump's approval was -9, and Dems led in the generic ballot by 7-8 points. Now, Biden's approval is -12, and R's only lead by... 1? Ok Jan. For whatever reason, these people just do not want to say they'd rather vote Republican, unlike in 2017-2018 when they were perfectly comfortable saying they'd vote Democrat. I can understand with how much dems and the media are going in with their shaming and social desirability campaign, but it's fairly obvious to those of us who've seen this movie before that these people will break overwhelmingly one way. It's just a shame because the misleading polling is going to be used by political hacks to craft a false narrative.

Is it possible people really dislike Biden's presidency but aren't ready to hand the keys back to the Republicans?

Of course. I'm one of these people.

As am I.

The people who are undecided about 2022 are not partisan Democrats like yourselves who are upset with Biden's lack of accomplishments (they are closer to the #VoteBlueNoMatterWho types because "Trumpism is an existential threat"), they are independents who have nuanced priorities and perspectives, who care about economic issues (not "voting rights" - a partisan Dem issue), people who voted for Biden but have soured greatly on him. Barely anybody on this forum fits that description, but the best fit would be Cathrina (who, is still far more favorable of Dems than the average voter).

[Unelectable Bystander]

This says it all in the Morning Consult poll

Among Independents: 34% approve, 59% disapprove
Among Independents: 30% Democrat, 29% Republican

The generic ballot at this point is more ridiculously misleading than it has been in any other election.

In November 2018, Trump's approval was -9, and Dems led in the generic ballot by 7-8 points. Now, Biden's approval is -12, and R's only lead by... 1? Ok Jan. For whatever reason, these people just do not want to say they'd rather vote Republican, unlike in 2017-2018 when they were perfectly comfortable saying they'd vote Democrat. I can understand with how much dems and the media are going in with their shaming and social desirability campaign, but it's fairly obvious to those of us who've seen this movie before that these people will break overwhelmingly one way. It's just a shame because the misleading polling is going to be used by political hacks to craft a false narrative.

Is it possible people really dislike Biden's presidency but aren't ready to hand the keys back to the Republicans?

These people probably do exist in small numbers, but the fact that they dislike Biden makes them less likely to turn out. We see this in the voting enthusiasm question, where 33% of conservatives, 26% of liberals, and 14% of moderates are extremely enthusiastic about voting in the midterm.

But on a separate issue, the poll claims that 28% of moderates are undecided, while only 9% of liberals and 8% of conservatives are undecided. Given the enthusiasm gap and the fact that liberals only make up ~25% of the general electorate, that means about 3% (at most) of the poll can be classified as Biden-disapproving liberals undecided on midterm choice. The other 14-15% still undecided are either moderates or conservatives, who are overwhelmingly Biden-disapproving independents

[Calthrina950]

This says it all in the Morning Consult poll

Among Independents: 34% approve, 59% disapprove
Among Independents: 30% Democrat, 29% Republican

The generic ballot at this point is more ridiculously misleading than it has been in any other election.

In November 2018, Trump's approval was -9, and Dems led in the generic ballot by 7-8 points. Now, Biden's approval is -12, and R's only lead by... 1? Ok Jan. For whatever reason, these people just do not want to say they'd rather vote Republican, unlike in 2017-2018 when they were perfectly comfortable saying they'd vote Democrat. I can understand with how much dems and the media are going in with their shaming and social desirability campaign, but it's fairly obvious to those of us who've seen this movie before that these people will break overwhelmingly one way. It's just a shame because the misleading polling is going to be used by political hacks to craft a false narrative.

Is it possible people really dislike Biden's presidency but aren't ready to hand the keys back to the Republicans?

Of course. I'm one of these people.

As am I.

The people who are undecided about 2022 are not partisan Democrats like yourselves who are upset with Biden's lack of accomplishments (they are closer to the #VoteBlueNoMatterWho types because "Trumpism is an existential threat"), they are independents who have nuanced priorities and perspectives, who care about economic issues (not "voting rights" - a partisan Dem issue), people who voted for Biden but have soured greatly on him. Barely anybody on this forum fits that description, but the best fit would be Cathrina (who, is still far more favorable of Dems than the average voter).

This is an accurate description of me. I'm not someone who is bonded to either political party, and I tend to vote for the individual, the person who I view as most competent or as most effective at doing the job (although I do have some biases against some politicians). I am concerned about the economy and about pandemic restrictions, and those are the primary issues for me. And as you note, I disapprove of Biden now and can't stand Harris or many of the other people in his Administration.

[Mr.Phips]

This says it all in the Morning Consult poll

Among Independents: 34% approve, 59% disapprove
Among Independents: 30% Democrat, 29% Republican

The generic ballot at this point is more ridiculously misleading than it has been in any other election.

In November 2018, Trump's approval was -9, and Dems led in the generic ballot by 7-8 points. Now, Biden's approval is -12, and R's only lead by... 1? Ok Jan. For whatever reason, these people just do not want to say they'd rather vote Republican, unlike in 2017-2018 when they were perfectly comfortable saying they'd vote Democrat. I can understand with how much dems and the media are going in with their shaming and social desirability campaign, but it's fairly obvious to those of us who've seen this movie before that these people will break overwhelmingly one way. It's just a shame because the misleading polling is going to be used by political hacks to craft a false narrative.

Is it possible people really dislike Biden's presidency but aren't ready to hand the keys back to the Republicans?

Of course. I'm one of these people.

As am I.

The people who are undecided about 2022 are not partisan Democrats like yourselves who are upset with Biden's lack of accomplishments (they are closer to the #VoteBlueNoMatterWho types because "Trumpism is an existential threat"), they are independents who have nuanced priorities and perspectives, who care about economic issues (not "voting rights" - a partisan Dem issue), people who voted for Biden but have soured greatly on him. Barely anybody on this forum fits that description, but the best fit would be Cathrina (who, is still far more favorable of Dems than the average voter).

This is an accurate description of me. I'm not someone who is bonded to either political party, and I tend to vote for the individual, the person who I view as most competent or as most effective at doing the job (although I do have some biases against some politicians). I am concerned about the economy and about pandemic restrictions, and those are the primary issues for me. And as you note, I disapprove of Biden now and can't stand Harris or many of the other people in his Administration.

So you are actually going to vote Republican?

[Calthrina950]

This says it all in the Morning Consult poll

Among Independents: 34% approve, 59% disapprove
Among Independents: 30% Democrat, 29% Republican

The generic ballot at this point is more ridiculously misleading than it has been in any other election.

In November 2018, Trump's approval was -9, and Dems led in the generic ballot by 7-8 points. Now, Biden's approval is -12, and R's only lead by... 1? Ok Jan. For whatever reason, these people just do not want to say they'd rather vote Republican, unlike in 2017-2018 when they were perfectly comfortable saying they'd vote Democrat. I can understand with how much dems and the media are going in with their shaming and social desirability campaign, but it's fairly obvious to those of us who've seen this movie before that these people will break overwhelmingly one way. It's just a shame because the misleading polling is going to be used by political hacks to craft a false narrative.

Is it possible people really dislike Biden's presidency but aren't ready to hand the keys back to the Republicans?

Of course. I'm one of these people.

As am I.

The people who are undecided about 2022 are not partisan Democrats like yourselves who are upset with Biden's lack of accomplishments (they are closer to the #VoteBlueNoMatterWho types because "Trumpism is an existential threat"), they are independents who have nuanced priorities and perspectives, who care about economic issues (not "voting rights" - a partisan Dem issue), people who voted for Biden but have soured greatly on him. Barely anybody on this forum fits that description, but the best fit would be Cathrina (who, is still far more favorable of Dems than the average voter).

This is an accurate description of me. I'm not someone who is bonded to either political party, and I tend to vote for the individual, the person who I view as most competent or as most effective at doing the job (although I do have some biases against some politicians). I am concerned about the economy and about pandemic restrictions, and those are the primary issues for me. And as you note, I disapprove of Biden now and can't stand Harris or many of the other people in his Administration.

So you are actually going to vote Republican?

For local-level offices, yes. Maybe for one of the row offices, though I will vote to reelect Bennet and Polis.