Best guess regarding the Senate - October 29th, 2006

[The Vorlon]

Hi Folks;

Here is my quick take on the Senate.

Sorry I haven’t been around much, I am busy, busy on a couple races. 

Up here in Alberta Canada we are changing Premiers (+/- the Governor of our Province) which takes up vast swaths of my time, and I am also remote control polling/number crunching for one race in the US, so I have not been posting much…

Here is my quick take on all the competitive races… I'll add more stuff as the day goes on...

Pennsylvania

Santorum is actually in better shape than he looks… He has sh*tloads of money, a solid base, a great turnout operation… That being said, Bush is so unpopular in Pennsylvania that if Bush opened a mortuary in Pennsylvania folks in Philadelphia folks would stop dying….

I don’t think this race will be quite a blowout (as in 15%) but Casey is solidly ahead by a lead just nudging up to double digits.  If the GOP faithful give up hope it could easliy go to 15%, but it's not there yet...

I like Rick personally, I worked for him in 1994, but sorry guy – in 2006 it’s “Hasta la Vista Baby…”

Democratic Pickup

Ohio

Dewine is imploding, it’s over.

Democratic Pickup

Rhode island

Chaffee is headed for a respectable loss, say 53/46 or so.

The GOP base hates Chaffee more than the Democrats dislike him.  I think this one has a very odd turnout dynamic.  Democrats will not stampede to the polls in favor of Whitehouse (or to throw out Chaffee for that matter), but I expect more than a few of the GOP faithful will just stay home.

Karl Rove and the boys are flogging the GOP base very, very, very, hard in this one (quietly of course, but they are on the ground, as the VP might say "Big Time") - If Rove can get the GOP base out in big numbers to support the very same candidate the base voted AGAINST in the primary - well - then Rove is indeed a true political genius. - I'll believe it when I see it, and frankly, I don't think I'll see it. - Rove is smart, he is not a magician.  You can't repeal the law of Gravity, and Bush is a political black hole in Rhode Island - anything that gets too close gets sucked in beyond the event horizon and disappears never to be seen again.

A GOP senator in Rhode Island is an anomaly at the best of times for the GOP, and these are clearly not the best of times.  Baring some major scandal dramatically hurting the Dem candidate, this one is over.

Democratic Pickup

Montana

Burns should be utterly dead.  Tarred with the Jack Abramoff scandal, generally being an aloof and arrogant pr*ck who is well past his “best before date”, combined with the fact that Tester is a generally sane and lucid fellow, and Burns should be toast.

On the other hand, Montana is still a pretty strong GOP state.  I think the public polling showing Tester up 3ish % is pretty close actually (A little bird tells me it is actually 4-5%)

Right now I think Tester has the edge, but if the GOP catches half a break in the last week, Burns still has an outside shot.

Democratic Pickup

New Jersey

In some ways, New Jersey is almost a flip side of the national race.  The Democrats in New Jersey are so old, tired, and scandal plagued that a solid GOP candidate can almost be seen as a breath of fresh air.

Internal polling for the GOP has picked up in New Jersey, and this is about a 2-3% race right now, and measures of voter intensity show a big GOP edge on this one (almost the only place in the US where the GOP has an edge)

Given the voter fatigue of New Jersey Democrats and the real excitement in the ranks of the GOP in New Jersey, this is a winnable race for the GOP.  Watch the GOP Senate and RNC money, if you see BIG buys New York and Philly to hit New Jersey,  then the GOP had decided this race is within range.

If this was 2004 I would say Kean would actually have a modest edge, but this is 2006 so a very mild Democratic advantage.

Democratic Hold

Missouri

I will go against the conventional wisdom here and say the Talent is just a little bit behind, it’s close, and the race could go either way, but I have McCaskill barely ahead.  Talk to me tomorrow and I may change my mind, but that's my best guess right now.

Firstly, Talent has historically, as an individual, always slightly over polled. – Not huge, but a few %. - He's a decent fellow, but has a smallish personal base.

Secondly, Talent just is not the kind of guy the GOP base walks through walls for. – This one will be won/lost on the ground and on election day, and I am not sure Talent has the personal strength of character to inspire the battle weary faithful to go that last mile that may be needed.

Talent's turnout operation in 2002 just plain stunk the joint out - The GOP says they have fixed it.  I am not fully convinced.

There is always a “breeze” on election day, when the whole world shifts 2 or 3% in one direction or another.  This year that breeze is more likely to be in the Dems direction than the GOP. – McCaskill in a photo finish.

Democratic Pickup

Maryland

In some ways, similar to New Jersey.. ..

The fun and games of Maryland Democrats are pretty well documented.

Steele is articulate and an African American.  Cardin is a long way from Mr. Personality.

If this was 2004 I would say Steele would still be behind, but it would be a close race worth watching.

But this is 2006, and this is a Democratic year, in a very Democratic state.

Closer than expected - maybe 5-7%, but still in the Dem column quite safely.

Democratic Hold

Tennessee

It’s close, with Corker having a modest edge.  The GOP base is waking up in Tennessee, and the New Jersey Gay Marriage court case may be just enough red meat to flog the GOP religious right faithful to the polls in enough numbers to salvage Bill Frist’s seat for the GOP.

Corker is ahead, (not by much, but he is ahead) and the GOP is throwing MASSIVE resources at this seat in a firewall strategy to keep it that way. - A bunch of paid GOP staff have been qietly redeployed from Ohio (The GOP has written Dewine off, public protests to the contrary)

Fords campaign has been running on a sugar high of early success, but at the end of the day I don't think they have the bodies, roots, and organization to get their folks to the polls on election day, while the GOP has all those things, in spades, in Tennessee.

GOP Hold

Virginia

It’s close, with Allen having a modest but semi-solid edge.  The GOP base is waking up big time in Virginia and the New Jersey Gay Marriage court case plus Mr. Webb’s colorful writing style will be enough to motivate the GOP religious right faithful to the polls.  – Allen is now ahead semi-comfortable in the 6% or so range. – The fact that this race is still close is an indicator of how tough a year this is for the GOP.

GOP Hold

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

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[Gustaf]

Interesting that you have Missouri going Democrat. I guess Tennessee has become the key race now when it comes to senate control.

[Tender Branson]

As of today, my prediction would be (winning margin incl.):

Virginia -> GOP Hold - 0-5%

Tennessee -> GOP Hold - 0-5%

Arizona -> GOP Hold - 5-10%

Nevada -> GOP Hold - 10%+


Missouri -> Dem. Pickup - 0-5%

Montana -> Dem. Pickup - 0-5%

Rhode Island -> Dem. Pickup - 5-10%

Ohio -> Dem. Pickup - 5-10%

Pennsylvania -> Dem. Pickup - 5-10%


New Jersey -> Dem. Hold - 0-5%

Maryland -> Dem. Hold - 5-10%

Washington -> Dem. Hold - 10%+

Minnesota -> Dem. Hold - 10%+

Michigan -> Dem. Hold - 10%+


Connecticut -> Ind. Pickup - 10%+

[opebo]

Absolutely correct, Valon, and also you HarrHaller, but Valon you forgot to mention the absolute nail in the coffin of the Ford campaign in Tennesee - race.

[gorkay]

I agree with all of Vorlon's predictions except for Missouri. I see a Republican hold there.

[The Vorlon]

I agree with all of Vorlon's predictions except for Missouri. I see a Republican hold there.

Missouri is very, very, very close right now.

This one literally goes down to whomever wins the last week of the campaign.

You have about a 50% chance of being right in Missouri.

Absolutely correct, Vorlon, and also you HarrHaller, but Vorlon you forgot to mention the absolute nail in the coffin of the Ford campaign in Tennesee - race.

There is some evidence to suggest that non-white candidates marginally overpoll in the South.

Bobby Jindal in Louisianna when he ran statewide is a good example.

Santorum is actually in better shape than he looks… He has sh*tloads of money, ........

Very good predictions, and I agree with most of them, but Bob Casey actually has more money now than Santorum does, and he also outraised Santorum in the first 18 days of October.

regarding money....

After a certain point, money doesn't matter actually.

If I run 100 TV ads and you run 3, I have a huge advantage.

If I run 3,467,342 TV spots and you run 4,096,324, it really doesn't matter.

Both sides have massive financial overkill in that race, there is so much money, there is no "advantage" in practical terms...

[Deano963]

Santorum is actually in better shape than he looks… He has sh*tloads of money, ........

Very good predictions, and I agree with most of them, but Bob Casey actually has more money now than Santorum does, and he also outraised Santorum in the first 18 days of October.

[Flying Dog]

My predictions:

Rhode Island:
(D) Whitehouse 54%
(R) Chaffee 44%
DEM PICKUP

Connecticut:
(I) Lieberman 48%
(D)Lamont 42%
(R)Schlesinger 8%
INDEPENDENT PICKUP(Caucases with Democrats)

New Jersey:
(D)Menendez 49%
(R)Kean Jr 48%
DEM HOLD

Maryland:
(D)Cardin 53%
(R)Steele 45%
DEM HOLD

Pennslyvania:
(D)Casey Jr 54%
(R)Santorum 45%
DEM PICKUP

Virginia:
(R)Allen 51%
(D)Webb 47%
GOP HOLD

Tennessee:
(R)Corker 50%
(D)Ford Jr. 49%
GOP HOLD

Ohio:
(D) Brown 54%
(R) Dewine 46%
DEM PICKUP

Michigan:
(D) Stabenow 55%
(R) Bouchard 43%
DEM HOLD

Minnesota:
(D)Klobuchar 54%
(R)Kennedy 43%
DEM HOLD

Missouri:
(D)McCaskill 50%
(R)Talent 48%
DEM PICKUP

Nebraska:
(D)Nelson 56%
(R)Ricketts 43%
DEM HOLD

Montana:
(D)Tester 52%
(R)Burns 47%
DEM PICKUP

Arizona:
(R)Kyl 53%
(D)Pederson 45%
GOP HOLD

Nevada:
(R)Ensign 56%
(D)Carter 42%

Washington:
(D)Cantwell 54%
(R)McGavick 44%

[Keystone Phil]

I like Rick personally, I worked for him in 1994

God bless you.

[Sam Spade]

Looks good.  We disagree on MO, but I think that's really an easy one to argue about.  It's good to see you around again.

[cp]

Good analysis, but I think you're overestimating the Corker campaign in Tennessee. They've had persistent problems with getting their message out - few voters there can identify his position on issues, even the Republicans!. As well, he's doing badly in the spin war. The Ford campaign is setting the tone for the public discourse about the election, and it's taking away advantages Corker needs to win.

The best example of this is the NJ same-sex marriage ruling: it should have been a boon for Corker, but it hasn't affected the numbers at all. Corker isn't getting a boost for being a 'defender of traditional marriage' (possible because Ford has been so effective in getting his opposition to same-sex marriage so well publicized).

[Adlai Stevenson]

Good analysis, but I think you're overestimating the Corker campaign in Tennessee. They've had persistent problems with getting their message out - few voters there can identify his position on issues, even the Republicans!. As well, he's doing badly in the spin war. The Ford campaign is setting the tone for the public discourse about the election, and it's taking away advantages Corker needs to win.

The best example of this is the NJ same-sex marriage ruling: it should have been a boon for Corker, but it hasn't affected the numbers at all. Corker isn't getting a boost for being a 'defender of traditional marriage' (possible because Ford has been so effective in getting his opposition to same-sex marriage so well publicized).

I think Ford will be helped by Bredesen as well.  The NJ Same Sex Marriage ruling is somewhat neutralised as an advantage for Corker because Ford is basically in the same position as he is on it.  It took ages for Corker to finally swing into action as well.  And the RNC ad shows some signs of desperation. 

[Sam Spade]

I meant to ask this question at an earlier time, but will choose to now.  What's your generic view on the House numbers are going to turn out?  Generic numbers are fine, nothing specific needed, unless you want to.

[Gabu]

Virginia

It’s close, with Allen having a modest but semi-solid edge.  The GOP base is waking up big time in Virginia and the New Jersey Gay Marriage court case plus Mr. Webb’s colorful writing style will be enough to motivate the GOP religious right faithful to the polls.  – Allen is now ahead semi-comfortable in the 6% or so range. – The fact that this race is still close is an indicator of how tough a year this is for the GOP.

GOP Hold

This is the only one that I have a question about, mostly regarding your statement that Allen is "ahead ... in the 6% or so range".  There hasn't been a single poll released from Virginia in nearly three weeks (and since the start of October if you ignore Zogby) that show Allen with a lead greater than 4, with the bulk of them showing Allen +2 or +3, and Rasmussen just came up with a poll showing Webb +2, or Webb +5 with leaners included.  I'm not saying you're wrong, I'm just wondering why you feel that Allen is ahead by more than essentially any poll has stated since the start of October.

[GOP = Terrorists]

Virginia -> Democratic Pickup - Webb wins in a sqeeker.  Tossup.
Tennessee -> GOP Hold - Corker wins by less than 5%.
Arizona -> GOP Hold - Whatcha gonna do can't win um all.
Nevada -> GOP Hold - Whatcha gonna do can't win them all.
Missouri -> Dem. Pickup - Talent loses by the tightest of margins.  IMO this is still a tossup.
Montana -> Dem. Pickup - Burns should have retired.  If I was a GOPer I'd be pissed that he didn't.  The man is barely awake.
Rhode Island -> Dem. Pickup - Lincoln is a good guy but his vote for majority leader just can't be accepted.
Ohio -> Dem. Pickup - Dewine isn't all bad but I'm glad he is out the door.
Pennsylvania -> Dem. Pickup - Santorum might very well be one of the worst human beings alive.  If there is an anti-christ on earth and it isn't Bin Laden, Bush, or Ahmadinejad, it is probably Rick Santorum.  An evil human being through and through.  If he was the only Dem pickup it would make my day. 
New Jersey -> Dem. Hold - Kean turns out to be more slimey than Menendez which is pretty hard to due.  People predict a bright future for him.  I don't at all.
Maryland -> Dem. Hold
Washington -> Dem. Hold
Minnesota -> Dem. Hold
Michigan -> Dem. Hold
Connecticut -> Ind. Pickup by a razor thin margin.  If Lieberman wins by 10 points as some have said above I'll eat my hat.  With Rell on the ticket and Gold on the same line and with the trend going Lieberman to Gold I wouldn't be shocked if Lamont won this race but I realize most of you would.

[Boris]

Dems take PA (Casey by ten), RI (Whitehouse by eight), OH (Brown by nine), and MT (Tester by three). GOP retains Missouri (Talent by 0.7%), TN (Corker by 2%), and Virginia (Allen by 2%). Democrats retain New Jersey (Menendez by four). Lieberman beats Lamont by thirteen.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

TN, VA, and MO are basically total tossups right now. Whoever wins 2/3 controls the Senate.

I'm going to say

TN - Corker by 1
MO - Someone by 0
VA - Webb by 1

Other races.

AZ - Kyl by 8
NV - Ensign by 12
MT - Tester by 5
RI - Whitehouse by 7
OH - Brown by 10
PA - Casey by 14
NJ - Menendez by 4
MD - Cardin by 5
WA - Cantwell by 11
MN - Klobuchar by 15
MI - Stabenow by 11
CT - Lieberman by 4

[Sam Spade]

Virginia

It’s close, with Allen having a modest but semi-solid edge.  The GOP base is waking up big time in Virginia and the New Jersey Gay Marriage court case plus Mr. Webb’s colorful writing style will be enough to motivate the GOP religious right faithful to the polls.  – Allen is now ahead semi-comfortable in the 6% or so range. – The fact that this race is still close is an indicator of how tough a year this is for the GOP.

GOP Hold

This is the only one that I have a question about, mostly regarding your statement that Allen is "ahead ... in the 6% or so range".  There hasn't been a single poll released from Virginia in nearly three weeks (and since the start of October if you ignore Zogby) that show Allen with a lead greater than 4, with the bulk of them showing Allen +2 or +3, and Rasmussen just came up with a poll showing Webb +2, or Webb +5 with leaners included.  I'm not saying you're wrong, I'm just wondering why you feel that Allen is ahead by more than essentially any poll has stated since the start of October.

I'd like to echo this question myself and also ask another very generic question. 

Other than MO, which of these Senate races do you feel like could provide the biggest surprise on election day?  In other words, I guess, which race do you feel the least confident about?

Also, I would be curious to hear post-election which US race you've been working on and how it turned out.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

IMO, Dems are gonna pick up RI, PA, OH, TN, and MT. 

[The Vorlon]

Virginia

It’s close, with Allen having a modest but semi-solid edge.  The GOP base is waking up big time in Virginia and the New Jersey Gay Marriage court case plus Mr. Webb’s colorful writing style will be enough to motivate the GOP religious right faithful to the polls.  – Allen is now ahead semi-comfortable in the 6% or so range. – The fact that this race is still close is an indicator of how tough a year this is for the GOP.

GOP Hold

This is the only one that I have a question about, mostly regarding your statement that Allen is "ahead ... in the 6% or so range".  There hasn't been a single poll released from Virginia in nearly three weeks (and since the start of October if you ignore Zogby) that show Allen with a lead greater than 4, with the bulk of them showing Allen +2 or +3, and Rasmussen just came up with a poll showing Webb +2, or Webb +5 with leaners included.  I'm not saying you're wrong, I'm just wondering why you feel that Allen is ahead by more than essentially any poll has stated since the start of October.

As you may recall, in 2004 I also had bush up 4-6% in Florida the entire race, which nobody believed.. untill the end

Allen's literary boobytrap appears to have backfired by the way and I have revised my sense of Virginia BTW, but generically, in a semi-stringly partisan state likely voter polls always make it seem closer than it really is.

In New jersey, for example, the GOP always polls quite close (say with in 5%) and then on election day all the Dems who have been ignoring the race show up and the Dem wins by 9%.. same effect except pro GOP this time..

[The Vorlon]

OH - Brown by 10

Might surprise and be a good bit more than 10 actually... 15 is in sight

[Nym90]

Virginia

It’s close, with Allen having a modest but semi-solid edge.  The GOP base is waking up big time in Virginia and the New Jersey Gay Marriage court case plus Mr. Webb’s colorful writing style will be enough to motivate the GOP religious right faithful to the polls.  – Allen is now ahead semi-comfortable in the 6% or so range. – The fact that this race is still close is an indicator of how tough a year this is for the GOP.

GOP Hold

This is the only one that I have a question about, mostly regarding your statement that Allen is "ahead ... in the 6% or so range".  There hasn't been a single poll released from Virginia in nearly three weeks (and since the start of October if you ignore Zogby) that show Allen with a lead greater than 4, with the bulk of them showing Allen +2 or +3, and Rasmussen just came up with a poll showing Webb +2, or Webb +5 with leaners included.  I'm not saying you're wrong, I'm just wondering why you feel that Allen is ahead by more than essentially any poll has stated since the start of October.

As you may recall, in 2004 I also had bush up 4-6% in Florida the entire race, which nobody believed.. untill the end

Allen's literary boobytrap appears to have backfired by the way and I have revised my sense of Virginia BTW, but generically, in a semi-stringly partisan state likely voter polls always make it seem closer than it really is.

In New jersey, for example, the GOP always polls quite close (say with in 5%) and then on election day all the Dems who have been ignoring the race show up and the Dem wins by 9%.. same effect except pro GOP this time..

Well Rasmussen, Strategic Vision, and Mason Dixon all had Bush up 4 or 5 in Florida in their final polls, so the analogy doesn't really hold up. In Virginia, no reputable pollster has had Allen up by as much as 6 since September (Zogby had him up 11 ). And I realize you are now lowering Allen's lead in your estimation, but it was still true when you originally made the call.

As for the argument that the GOP historically underpolls in Virginia, I agree this was slightly true in 2004, but in 2005 the opposite ended up being the case; it was Kaine who did better than pretty much everyone was expecting. Maybe that was due to a large late Kaine surge that overwhelmed the GOP underpolling in the state and more than made up for it, who knows, but it still is evidence to argue against the idea that the GOP underpolls in VA.

So I think that's what Sam Spade was getting at, that since absolutely no one has Allen up by as much as 6 (and some new polls now have Webb up 4 or 5, not that I believe those either), that you must know something nobody else does.

[Monty]

Virginia

It’s close, with Allen having a modest but semi-solid edge.  The GOP base is waking up big time in Virginia and the New Jersey Gay Marriage court case plus Mr. Webb’s colorful writing style will be enough to motivate the GOP religious right faithful to the polls.  – Allen is now ahead semi-comfortable in the 6% or so range. – The fact that this race is still close is an indicator of how tough a year this is for the GOP.

GOP Hold

This is the only one that I have a question about, mostly regarding your statement that Allen is "ahead ... in the 6% or so range".  There hasn't been a single poll released from Virginia in nearly three weeks (and since the start of October if you ignore Zogby) that show Allen with a lead greater than 4, with the bulk of them showing Allen +2 or +3, and Rasmussen just came up with a poll showing Webb +2, or Webb +5 with leaners included.  I'm not saying you're wrong, I'm just wondering why you feel that Allen is ahead by more than essentially any poll has stated since the start of October.

As you may recall, in 2004 I also had bush up 4-6% in Florida the entire race, which nobody believed.. untill the end

Allen's literary boobytrap appears to have backfired by the way and I have revised my sense of Virginia BTW, but generically, in a semi-stringly partisan state likely voter polls always make it seem closer than it really is.

In New jersey, for example, the GOP always polls quite close (say with in 5%) and then on election day all the Dems who have been ignoring the race show up and the Dem wins by 9%.. same effect except pro GOP this time..

I disagree.  Allen is sinking like a rock. 

As for Tennessee, the impression I'm getting is that most people think Ford and Corker are both slimeballs.  So that's probably means Corker will win by 2 or 3. 


In order of highest % for Dems, Dems win OH, PA, RI, MD, NJ, MT, VA, and MO. 

[Deano963]

Not so much a guess or a prediction but just an observation:

It now appears at least somewhat likely(some would say very likely) that Dewine will lose by a bigger margin than Santorum will. That just amazes me, and I am as aware of the Ohio GOP's woes as anyone. Who would have thought it possible at the beginning of this cycle that Dewine would lose so badly?

[Gabu]

As you may recall, in 2004 I also had bush up 4-6% in Florida the entire race, which nobody believed.. untill the end

Allen's literary boobytrap appears to have backfired by the way and I have revised my sense of Virginia BTW, but generically, in a semi-stringly partisan state likely voter polls always make it seem closer than it really is.

Fair enough... but you do realizing you're pulling a Zogby by trying to take that into consideration, yes?