React to this polling map on 11/04/2024

[Sir Mohamed]

What would be your reaction/prediction to this polling map on eve before the election? Tickets are Joe Biden/Kamala Harris (D, inc.) vs. Donald Trump/Kristi Noem (R)

90% shading: Polling average lead > 10 pts.
50% shading: Polling average lead 3-10 pts.
30% shading: Polling average lead < 3 pts.
Tossup: Tie

National polling: Joe Biden 50.5%, Donald Trump 46.6%

[Tekken_Guy]

All Trump needs is a polling error in Texas and to sweep the red and toss-up states to tie. Republicans will likely have at least 27 delegations (25 Trump 2020 states + Wisconsin, Georgia) so Trump wins.

[Sir Mohamed]

All Trump needs is a polling error in Texas and to sweep the red and toss-up states to tie. Republicans will likely have at least 27 delegations (25 Trump 2020 states + Wisconsin, Georgia) so Trump wins.

Yup, though polling NV often overestimated GOP support. And I still think NV goes blue if AZ does so.

[Tekken_Guy]

We should have gone with DeSantis.

[Person Man]

He would then probably be in the shape he was exactly 4 years ago. Probably worse because the polls will be more fitted for Trump. Biden probably holds Trump to no more than one light blue state and probably wins at least one grey state. Biden gets at least 284 Electoral Votes (+NC -WI, PA).

[S019]

Trends are real, TX+NC being at least Biden+3 means he’d probably survive a polling error there. In any case, a very close election, also some takeaways, WI is clearly gone for the Democrats, GA is clearly gone for the GOP and TX/AZ aren’t far behind

[EastwoodS]

That it’s BS😂

[Xing]

I like the state polling that looks good for my party and therefore those polls are obviously correct, but the state polling which doesn't is obviously fake news and biased.

[Unelectable Bystander]

Does anybody remember that Texas polls were like R+0.5 in 2020?

[SnowLabrador]

It means Trump's got a good chance thanks to the likely polling error.

[Tekken_Guy]

It means Trump's got a good chance thanks to the likely polling error.

What do you mean by that?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Texas isn't going D before WI with Tammy Baldwin on the ballot

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

Not happy that Biden and Trump are still on the D/R tickets. This is how I would correct for likely polling bias, wasn't sure if I should make PA a tossup. FL is only >3% R because I replaced Don Giovanni with Ronaldo Dion.

[Galeel]

I would probably think Trump is favored ngl

[Skill and Chance]

All Trump needs is a polling error in Texas and to sweep the red and toss-up states to tie. Republicans will likely have at least 27 delegations (25 Trump 2020 states + Wisconsin, Georgia) so Trump wins.

Eh... TX isn't the place to count on a pro-R polling error though.  It just barely had one in 2020 vs. a huge pro-R error nationwide and had significant pro-D polling errors in both 2018 and 2016. 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

All Trump needs is a polling error in Texas and to sweep the red and toss-up states to tie. Republicans will likely have at least 27 delegations (25 Trump 2020 states + Wisconsin, Georgia) so Trump wins.

Eh... TX isn't the place to count on a pro-R polling error though.  It just barely had one in 2020 vs. a huge pro-R error nationwide and had significant pro-D polling errors in both 2018 and 2016.  

We had 2018 Valdez and 2020 HEGAR running for GOV and Sen, Beto is a STRONG CANDIDATE

The only two females to win Sen or Gov are Ann Richards and Kay Bailey Huchinson and Huchinson wasn't that conservative that's why she gave it up to Cruz

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Pretty clear Trump win

[Sir Mohamed]

Pretty clear Trump win

Tbh, this would finally finish polling in the US. After they got 2 elections wrong or were that much off, and the polls again being so inaccurate would destroy and kind of credibility that's left for the this industry.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden isn't gonna be at 41 percent on Election night 22 or 24 so forget about a Trump win even at 41 Trump is only beating him  45/41

[THG]

1) We are in a hopeless situation (and I mean we as a Republic, not just my party).

2) We should've gone with the DeSantis/Youngkin ticket, as a party.

3) So assuming that the PV really is identical to 2020 (and that polling is better than that election cycle), I shall assume that Trump is probably doing even worse in the sunbelt that expected, whereas Biden might be underperforming his rust belt numbers in 2020. Unless this poll is underestimating Biden in the rust belt or Trump in the sun belt, in which case nothing makes sense.

Either way, this makes for an interesting election, even if I'd be severely depressed at another Trump-Biden rematch.

[MT Treasurer]

Even in states where polls used to consistently underestimate Democrats (NV, AZ, TX, etc.), Republican performance in 2020 (and in some cases already in 2018) was underestimated. This was also evident in NJ-GOV 2021, even though NJ polls had been extremely accurate in the past.

The bottom line is that this has increasingly become a cross-state phenomenon where old patterns no longer apply, as overall/national coalition changes are more powerful than any traditional or peculiar local traditions at this point (New England is still somewhat of an exception to this, but that may be changing soon). This trend will only accelerate as the D base becomes more affluent, suburban, and engaged and Republicans rely more on non-college-educated, lower-propensity, minority, and even urban voters in addition to their rural/small-town base (which many pollsters already struggle to reach, especially in the Midwest). Ironically, those same groups contributed to the pro-D bias in (often) the exact same states during the Obama era. You’re going to have an increasingly harder time pointing to even one state in which polls are likely to "underestimate" Democrats under our current realignment of party coalitions.

[Skill and Chance]

Even in states where polls used to consistently underestimate Democrats (NV, AZ, TX, etc.), Republican performance in 2020 (and in some cases already in 2018) was underestimated. This was also evident in NJ-GOV 2021, even though NJ polls had been extremely accurate in the past.

The bottom line is that this has increasingly become a cross-state phenomenon where old patterns no longer apply, as overall/national coalition changes are more powerful than any traditional or peculiar local traditions at this point (New England is still somewhat of an exception to this, but that may be changing soon). This trend will only accelerate as the D base becomes more affluent, suburban, and engaged and Republicans rely more on non-college-educated, lower-propensity, minority, and even urban voters in addition to their rural/small-town base (which many pollsters already struggle to reach, especially in the Midwest). Ironically, those same groups contributed to the pro-D bias in (often) the exact same states during the Obama era. You’re going to have an increasingly harder time pointing to even one state in which polls are likely to "underestimate" Democrats under our current realignment of party coalitions.

There's clearly a pro-Dem polling bias nationwide, but I would be careful with extrapolating 2020.  D's were considerably less likely to leave their homes than R's during the summer/fall of 2020, which probably accentuated the polling bias.  A step back to 2016/18 level modest pro-Dem polling bias post-COVID is plausible and fairly consistent with CA/VA/NJ results this year. 

[Kleine Scheiße]

the election map all said and done would probably just be 2020 minus wisconsin and either michigan or pennsylvania

so, anywhere from 274D-264R to 278D-260R

nonzero chance georgia is stolen however

[Vice President Christian Man]

Could be plausible at this rate. Before Trump insulted NH, I predicted NH would vote to the right of Texas which didn't happen.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Trends are real, TX+NC being at least Biden+3 means he’d probably survive a polling error there. In any case, a very close election, also some takeaways, WI is clearly gone for the Democrats, GA is clearly gone for the GOP and TX/AZ aren’t far behind

It's shaded in 30% categories which means Biden isn't polled at least +3 in TX+NC but has a lead of 0 points to 3 points.

This could mean the lead in Texas is something like +0.2. And Texas polling has overestimated support for Democrats in the past esp. 2020. (in 2018 Beto maybe overperformed kinda? but Cruz wasn't popular either).

Even a polling error of like 5 points is possible, so GA could still go red. If you don't believe me, look at 2016 Rust Belt.