Probably the same but with North Carolina flipping and Joe Biden’s margin increasing a bit in some states that he both won and lost. Ohio, Iowa, and Texas in particular would have been a lot closer, maybe only Trump +4, Trump +5, and Trump +2 respectively.
Additionally, both Thom Tillis and Susan Collins both narrowly lose, which would have made it easier for the Democrats to pass more legislation in 2021 considering that they wouldn’t have had to deal with the turncoats Joe Manchin and Krysten Sinema (who both easily switch parties in this scenario). A slightly larger Democratic majority might have also resulted in several more Republicans such as Mike Rounds, Rob Portman, Mitch McConnell, Todd Young, Jerry Moran, John Thune, Roy Blunt, and Richard Shelby supporting Donald Trumps second impeachment as well.
If Collins and Tillis both lost, Dems would have already had control of the senate and there probably wouldn’t have been the Dem enthusiasm to push Ossoff and Warnock over the top in the GA runoffs.
