2020 Election without Ginsburg Death
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 07:33:11 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs? (Moderator: Dereich)
  2020 Election without Ginsburg Death
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: 2020 Election without Ginsburg Death  (Read 764 times)
WPADEM
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 258
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: January 16, 2022, 11:01:56 AM »

Another 2020 scenario.  In this scenario Ruth Bader Ginsburg's seat on the Supreme Court does not become vacant.  You can interpret it as her living longer, or having retired in 2013 or 2014.  Assume that everything else is the same, including Trump getting Covid in the late stages of the campaign, but it happens under different circumstances.
Logged
GregTheGreat657
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,920
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.77, S: -1.04

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: January 16, 2022, 03:57:03 PM »



Trump's appointment of ACB further fired up the base in OTL, so turnout is slightly down on both sides, but more of the lower turnout is on the Republican side
Logged
MATTROSE94
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,803
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -5.29, S: -6.43

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: January 17, 2022, 11:53:57 AM »

Probably the same but with North Carolina flipping and Joe Biden’s margin increasing a bit in some states that he both won and lost. Ohio, Iowa, and Texas in particular would have been a lot closer, maybe only Trump +4, Trump +5, and Trump +2 respectively. 

Additionally, both Thom Tillis and Susan Collins both narrowly lose, which would have made it easier for the Democrats to pass more legislation in 2021 considering that they wouldn’t have had to deal with the turncoats Joe Manchin and Krysten Sinema (who both easily switch parties in this scenario). A slightly larger Democratic majority might have also resulted in several more Republicans such as Mike Rounds, Rob Portman, Mitch McConnell, Todd Young, Jerry Moran, John Thune, Roy Blunt, and Richard Shelby supporting Donald Trumps second impeachment as well.
Logged
Mr.Phips
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,543


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: January 17, 2022, 12:26:27 PM »

Probably the same but with North Carolina flipping and Joe Biden’s margin increasing a bit in some states that he both won and lost. Ohio, Iowa, and Texas in particular would have been a lot closer, maybe only Trump +4, Trump +5, and Trump +2 respectively. 

Additionally, both Thom Tillis and Susan Collins both narrowly lose, which would have made it easier for the Democrats to pass more legislation in 2021 considering that they wouldn’t have had to deal with the turncoats Joe Manchin and Krysten Sinema (who both easily switch parties in this scenario). A slightly larger Democratic majority might have also resulted in several more Republicans such as Mike Rounds, Rob Portman, Mitch McConnell, Todd Young, Jerry Moran, John Thune, Roy Blunt, and Richard Shelby supporting Donald Trumps second impeachment as well.

If Collins and Tillis both lost, Dems would have already had control of the senate and there probably wouldn’t have been the Dem enthusiasm to push Ossoff and Warnock over the top in the GA runoffs.
Logged
paxamericana
Rookie
**
Posts: 82


Political Matrix
E: 1.10, S: 5.30

P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: January 17, 2022, 05:08:31 PM »

The exact same. I don't think it had any big effect and I'd be willing to bet most people forgot about it come election day.
Logged
Pericles
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,066


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: January 17, 2022, 07:31:17 PM »

The White House wouldn't have held a super spreader event and Trump would not have gotten hospitalised as a result. Provided he could avoid getting Covid until after the election, his margin is just under 1% better-so he wins Arizona, Georgia, and barely Wisconsin. This means neither Biden or Trump receive the 270 electoral votes needed to win but get 269 each, so the election goes to the House. There, no races go differently, and despite the Democratic majority, a majority of House delegations vote to re-elect Trump. On a uniform swing, David Perdue would have won a majority without a runoff and so the Senate would elect Mike Pence as Vice President.

Of course, without the butterfly elect, the effect of the RBG vacancy was minimal and it just made people even angrier and energised on both sides.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.036 seconds with 11 queries.