DC Political Report TX 23: Bonilla(R) has lopsided lead on Rodriguez(D)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

D: 24%, R: 44%

http://www.coldheartedtruth.com/index.php/Senate?cat=72

[Adlai Stevenson]

Can that many people really be undecided? 

[okstate]

TX-23 is going to have a runoff election system this year, so Bonilla has to hit 51 percent to win.

Here's the actual poll:

"In TX-23, Henry Bonilla's district, DC's Political Report indicates that polling shows Bonilla below 50% in the 8-person race for his seat, although I don't know what the source of his information is, and 4 of the 8 candidates he lists (including one in third place who gets 11% support) aren't actually on the ballot.

44% Henry Bonilla (R) (Inc.)
24% Ciro Rodriguez (D)
24% 6 other candidates"

[Sam Spade]

The only problem with this poll and this post is that there are only seven candidates in the race since Rick Bolanos dropped out Lukin Gilliland and endorsed and the numbers quoted here look too eerily similar to the only poll we've ever had of the race, conducted by the D firm Greenberg, Quinlan, Rosner back in mid-August, which were:

Henry Bonilla 44% (incumbent Republican)
Ciro Rodriguez 24% (former congressman in District 28)
Pete Gallego 11% (Democratic state representative from Alpine)
Albert Uresti 7% (brother of Democratic senate primary winner Carlos Uresti, of San Antonio)
Richard Perez 3% (San Antonio city council member)
Rick Bolanos 1% (won the '06 Democratic primary in the old District 23, of El Pas0)
Virgil Yanta 1% (losing candidate in the '04 Democratic primary)
Libertarian 1%
Undecided 6%

http://www.texasmonthly.com/community/blog/paulburka/2006/08/heard-from-23rd.php

[Adlai Stevenson]

Why is there a runoff this year?  I didn't really there was any precedent for one Congressional District having a runoff? 

[Sam Spade]

Why is there a runoff this year?  I didn't really there was any precedent for one Congressional District having a runoff? 

Look at Texas in 1996.

Five CDs are having open primaries where if you don't get over 50% you go to a runoff because of the USSC's force redrawing of the CD.  Those are: TX-15, TX-21, TX-23, TX-25, TX-28.