UVA: "We believe [one possibility is] it will be the largest Republican majority in the House..." (user search)
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  UVA: "We believe [one possibility is] it will be the largest Republican majority in the House..." (search mode)
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Author Topic: UVA: "We believe [one possibility is] it will be the largest Republican majority in the House..."  (Read 1000 times)
Minnesota Mike
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« on: January 14, 2022, 01:51:41 AM »

That's a misquote, but I also believe it to be very possible.

Not sure people realize how low the bar is. It doesn't require Republicans to win a single seat that's more than D+5. The NRCC target list currently has 70 seats (including a couple seats that are unreachable after redistricting and, as always, some ridiculous reaches).

They have a fortunate combination of a narrow minority and a massively unpopular incumbent government. Their problem is that a bunch of the seats they need are trending away from them, but it's very possible that a wave washes over those trends. That's how waves work.

PVI is misleading IMHO, a seat with a 0 PVI is a seat that leans about 3 points Democratic. We won't know exactly until redistricting is complete but to gain 35 seats Republicans would need to carry every seat Trump won and every seat Biden won by 8-9 points or less and that's very unlikely. Republicans have shorn up their incumbents a lot in redistricting but in doing so they also have really lowered their ceiling.
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