UVA: "We believe [one possibility is] it will be the largest Republican majority in the House..."
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  UVA: "We believe [one possibility is] it will be the largest Republican majority in the House..."
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Author Topic: UVA: "We believe [one possibility is] it will be the largest Republican majority in the House..."  (Read 956 times)
BigSerg
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« on: January 13, 2022, 02:31:04 PM »
« edited: January 14, 2022, 08:28:07 AM by Brittain33 »

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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #1 on: January 13, 2022, 02:40:43 PM »

This is meant to be a “what if?” scenario, not a prediction.
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BoiseBoy
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« Reply #2 on: January 13, 2022, 02:49:22 PM »

Big Serg has weird fetish for posting dumb sh**t? No surprise.
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #3 on: January 13, 2022, 02:58:07 PM »

If Biden doesn't cancel student loan debt by executive order, it's almost inevitable.
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Xing
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« Reply #4 on: January 13, 2022, 03:14:23 PM »

Republicans are definitely taking back the House, but it will be very difficult for them to get to 248 seats or more without winning the PV by double digits or almost that much. It's much more plausible for them to get to 2013 levels, or perhaps somewhere in between 2011 and 2013 levels.
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coloradocowboi
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« Reply #5 on: January 13, 2022, 04:19:55 PM »

Yeah please read the article. They are saying it could under the absolute best case for the GOP. Reading it convinced me for sure they won't lol
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swf541
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« Reply #6 on: January 13, 2022, 04:29:37 PM »

My feeling when people dont read what they link.
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Senator Incitatus
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« Reply #7 on: January 13, 2022, 04:32:13 PM »
« Edited: January 13, 2022, 04:41:39 PM by RoboWop »

That's a misquote, but I also believe it to be very possible.

Not sure people realize how low the bar is. It doesn't require Republicans to win a single seat that's more than D+5. The NRCC target list currently has 70 seats (including a couple seats that are unreachable after redistricting and, as always, some ridiculous reaches).

They have a fortunate combination of a narrow minority and a massively unpopular incumbent government. Their problem is that a bunch of the seats they need are trending away from them, but it's very possible that a wave washes over those trends. That's how waves work.
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coloradocowboi
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« Reply #8 on: January 13, 2022, 10:25:46 PM »

Not sure people realize how low the bar is. It doesn't require Republicans to win a single seat that's more than D+5.

Read the article, folks, because this is also not true. According to Kondik and Coleman, the GOP has to win Frank Mrvan's (off the top of my head) seat and plenty of others like it to net this majority. Their path to 35 seats is contingent on the GOP winning every single winnable race, and thus not nominating a lunatic in any of these contests (which they will) lol

The odds right now, per the logic of this article, are high for a GOP takeover, but merely possible in one scenario for the largest GOP majority since the 20s. The bar is therefore somewhere between one inch off the ground and an unattainable height. We can't infer the likelihood of this scenario through supposition
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Senator Incitatus
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« Reply #9 on: January 13, 2022, 10:39:14 PM »
« Edited: January 13, 2022, 10:46:26 PM by RoboWop »

Not sure people realize how low the bar is. It doesn't require Republicans to win a single seat that's more than D+5.

Read the article, folks, because this is also not true.

It is entirely true; in fact, it was too generous by a point. The Republicans don't currently have to win a seat that's worse than D+4, though they would in practice because, as you note, even in waves the winning party will drop a winnable seat or five. They'll also probably drop a seat or two once the New York map is finalized, though that wouldn't push the 35th seat up another point.

We're looking at the same analysis, which I conducted independently myself to verify. Mrvan's district is D+4 according to Cook (before and after redistricting), as would be the 35th pickup seat. (Actually, Mrvan's district is probably more winnable for the Republicans than most D+4 seats and even a couple D+3, so it'd be more like the 27th pickup.)

If the Republican Party actually won every D+5 seat without a loss, it would gain more like 45 seats.
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Unelectable Bystander
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« Reply #10 on: January 13, 2022, 10:49:45 PM »

I don’t get how the D’s on this board are so dismissive in thinking that every D-leaning seat has no chance of ever flipping. Not every congressional race is as simple as Biden vs Trump. There is a 99% chance that at least one of these far-fetched double digit Biden districts will fall and if the election was held today, there would be dozens of such cases.
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #11 on: January 13, 2022, 10:57:49 PM »

That already happened in 2010. We're too polarized at this point for such a move...not that it matters anymore. 218 is all that's needed, and the GOP will definitely get to that.
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Badger
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« Reply #12 on: January 14, 2022, 01:13:53 AM »

Big Serg has weird fetish for posting dumb sh**t? No surprise.
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Minnesota Mike
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« Reply #13 on: January 14, 2022, 01:51:41 AM »

That's a misquote, but I also believe it to be very possible.

Not sure people realize how low the bar is. It doesn't require Republicans to win a single seat that's more than D+5. The NRCC target list currently has 70 seats (including a couple seats that are unreachable after redistricting and, as always, some ridiculous reaches).

They have a fortunate combination of a narrow minority and a massively unpopular incumbent government. Their problem is that a bunch of the seats they need are trending away from them, but it's very possible that a wave washes over those trends. That's how waves work.

PVI is misleading IMHO, a seat with a 0 PVI is a seat that leans about 3 points Democratic. We won't know exactly until redistricting is complete but to gain 35 seats Republicans would need to carry every seat Trump won and every seat Biden won by 8-9 points or less and that's very unlikely. Republicans have shorn up their incumbents a lot in redistricting but in doing so they also have really lowered their ceiling.
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coloradocowboi
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« Reply #14 on: January 14, 2022, 11:05:33 AM »

Not sure people realize how low the bar is. It doesn't require Republicans to win a single seat that's more than D+5.

Read the article, folks, because this is also not true.

It is entirely true; in fact, it was too generous by a point. The Republicans don't currently have to win a seat that's worse than D+4, though they would in practice because, as you note, even in waves the winning party will drop a winnable seat or five. They'll also probably drop a seat or two once the New York map is finalized, though that wouldn't push the 35th seat up another point.

We're looking at the same analysis, which I conducted independently myself to verify. Mrvan's district is D+4 according to Cook (before and after redistricting), as would be the 35th pickup seat. (Actually, Mrvan's district is probably more winnable for the Republicans than most D+4 seats and even a couple D+3, so it'd be more like the 27th pickup.)

If the Republican Party actually won every D+5 seat without a loss, it would gain more like 45 seats.

Okay so you’re using Cook PVI not 538 as I had mistakenly assumed. Regardless, as others pointed out below, a seat that is Cool PVI +5 leans as much as 8 or 9 points to the left of an average seat in a neutral environment. So, again, the bar is not low it’s high.

Republicans are so certain this election is gonna be Virginia and NJ, but I’m not. In California, I didn’t even vote in the recall and neither did anybody I know. But Newsom won anyway because the GOP clown car got in the way of their messaging. Again, I’m not saying that the 35 seat scenario is impossible, just very unlikely barring some kind of unforeseen event.

The scenario in this article says republicans have to win 100% of Nevada house seats for this to happen. I don’t think that’s happening, let alone dozens of other lucky breaks just like it.
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Torie
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« Reply #15 on: January 14, 2022, 11:59:53 AM »

Maybe when a poster deliberately puts up a false and misleading title, to generate buzz ot to troll, the Mods should just delete the whole thread, and let another poster if the poster so chooses put it up with an accurate headline.

If that idea is appealing, I might bring it up in the Cave.

I do thinking putting up false headlines is a breach of trust to other posters, and hurts this site, and degrades its mission, and is a self indulgence that should not be tolerated.
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progressive85
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« Reply #16 on: January 14, 2022, 01:37:40 PM »

I think it'll be more than 250.  What was the highest in the past 40 years?  The Democrats under Speaker Tip in the 80's?
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StateBoiler
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« Reply #17 on: January 28, 2022, 09:34:59 AM »



It's not saying THAT much considering the Depression was Democrat-dominated and then the Democrats had the Chamber for 40 straight years from 1954 to 1994. We're really just comparing to a handful of post-World War II years and then the decade after the Republican Revolution and the late Obama presidency.
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The Mikado
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« Reply #18 on: January 28, 2022, 11:57:56 AM »



It's not saying THAT much considering the Depression was Democrat-dominated and then the Democrats had the Chamber for 40 straight years from 1954 to 1994. We're really just comparing to a handful of post-World War II years and then the decade after the Republican Revolution and the late Obama presidency.

Specifically, the current record of post-1930 GOP House Majorities was set in 2014 at 247 seats, which is why this project set figuring out 248 seats as its goal.

I'm currently thinking the GOP picks up between 15 and 30 House seats (15 would be a pretty good night for Dems, putting it at 228-207 GOP, while 30 would be a really good night for the GOP, putting it at 243-192 GOP). I guess my median prediction is towards the more GOP friendly end of that, say 25 seats (238-197 GOP), which would be a very solid majority, though smaller than 3 out of the 4 Boehner-Ryan era majorities, only barely being larger than the 234-201 majority they had after the 2012 election.

I think the Democratic Party has a significantly higher floor than it once did and it may be hard to get to 218 majority status again but it'll also be hard for Democrats to drop below 195 again.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #19 on: January 29, 2022, 12:04:32 AM »

I still this would take a lot more than people think. There is a pretty severe lack of competitive seats after redistricting so it'd probably mean them winning a bunch of Biden + double-digit seats which isn't impossible, but it'd take a pretty big wave.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #20 on: January 29, 2022, 07:32:04 AM »

I still this would take a lot more than people think. There is a pretty severe lack of competitive seats after redistricting so it'd probably mean them winning a bunch of Biden + double-digit seats which isn't impossible, but it'd take a pretty big wave.

Would like take a double digit popular vote win in the House.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #21 on: January 29, 2022, 10:37:50 AM »
« Edited: January 29, 2022, 10:43:31 AM by SOCIALIST MR BAKARI SELLERS »

The Current prediction is 10 seats R H and a 53)47 D Senate D's netting LA, WI and PA and parity in Govs 25 D/2I/13 Rs if Beshear is at 60 percent in rural KY Kelly can win as an incumbent in rural KS, incumbency in red states is an advantage than challenger look at Sherrod Brown he has bucked the trend in R OH

Guess what the last poll in KS was Kelly up 5 but Rs are cheating by not passing Voting Rights and LA and GA are going to Runoffs it's Jan 2022 not October

It's the end result that matters not the polls look at now, I know the Rs are excited but anxiety isn't gonna get you closer to Election between now and October and D's can recover too Biden polls are already going up most of the Civiq polls which are pure TRASH has Biden at 40/45 percent not 35 and the next QU poll isn't gonna be Biden 33 PERCENT
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