UVA: "We believe [one possibility is] it will be the largest Republican majority in the House..."

[Senator Incitatus]

That's a misquote, but I also believe it to be very possible.

Not sure people realize how low the bar is. It doesn't require Republicans to win a single seat that's more than D+5. The NRCC target list currently has 70 seats (including a couple seats that are unreachable after redistricting and, as always, some ridiculous reaches).

They have a fortunate combination of a narrow minority and a massively unpopular incumbent government. Their problem is that a bunch of the seats they need are trending away from them, but it's very possible that a wave washes over those trends. That's how waves work.

[Senator Incitatus]

Not sure people realize how low the bar is. It doesn't require Republicans to win a single seat that's more than D+5.

Read the article, folks, because this is also not true.

It is entirely true; in fact, it was too generous by a point. The Republicans don't currently have to win a seat that's worse than D+4, though they would in practice because, as you note, even in waves the winning party will drop a winnable seat or five. They'll also probably drop a seat or two once the New York map is finalized, though that wouldn't push the 35th seat up another point.

We're looking at the same analysis, which I conducted independently myself to verify. Mrvan's district is D+4 according to Cook (before and after redistricting), as would be the 35th pickup seat. (Actually, Mrvan's district is probably more winnable for the Republicans than most D+4 seats and even a couple D+3, so it'd be more like the 27th pickup.)

If the Republican Party actually won every D+5 seat without a loss, it would gain more like 45 seats.