Not sure people realize how low the bar is. It doesn't require Republicans to win a single seat that's more than D+5.
Read the article, folks, because this is also not true.
It is entirely true; in fact, it was too generous by a point. The Republicans don't currently have to win a seat that's worse than D+4, though they would in practice because, as you note, even in waves the winning party will drop a winnable seat or five. They'll also probably drop a seat or two once the New York map is finalized, though that wouldn't push the 35th seat up another point.
We're looking at the same analysis, which I conducted independently myself to verify. Mrvan's district is D+4 according to Cook (before and after redistricting), as would be the 35th pickup seat. (Actually, Mrvan's district is probably more winnable for the Republicans than most D+4 seats and even a couple D+3, so it'd be more like the 27th pickup.)
If the Republican Party actually won every D+5 seat without a loss, it would gain more like 45 seats.
Okay so you’re using Cook PVI not 538 as I had mistakenly assumed. Regardless, as others pointed out below, a seat that is Cool PVI +5 leans as much as 8 or 9 points to the left of an average seat in a neutral environment. So, again, the bar is not low it’s high.
Republicans are so certain this election is gonna be Virginia and NJ, but I’m not. In California, I didn’t even vote in the recall and neither did anybody I know. But Newsom won anyway because the GOP clown car got in the way of their messaging. Again, I’m not saying that the 35 seat scenario is impossible, just very unlikely barring some kind of unforeseen event.
The scenario in this article says republicans have to win 100% of Nevada house seats for this to happen. I don’t think that’s happening, let alone dozens of other lucky breaks just like it.
