MI - Craig Internal: TIE

[MT Treasurer]

Just because Whitmer's opponents may be more vocal than Evers's doesn’t mean that the GOP base is less energized in WI than in MI or particularly tolerant of Evers (who is more constrained by the Court than Whitmer but of course just as partisan as her), and just because Wolf, whose approval numbers have been even worse than Whitmer's in recent polling, can’t run again in 2022, doesn’t mean the GOP base in PA is less energized than in MI or that the issues driving down Whitmer's/Wolf's popularity won’t hurt Shapiro's prospects. I expect all three states to have very similar results in the end, with no race considerably more likely to flip than the other two. Republicans are slightly to moderately favored in all three states but it’s not that hard to see Democrats very narrowly holding one of them.

[MT Treasurer]

Is anyone honestly saying that Evers is less vulnerable than Whitmer? The more prevailing wisdom here seems to be that Evers is DOA while Whitmer's race is a Toss-Up. My point is that I expect Republicans to win both races by less than 5%, and while Whitmer might do a point or two better than Evers, I don't see the two races going that differently.

I don’t actually disagree with you here. I was mostly referring to the popular opinion on here that PA is notably more winnable for Democrats than MI even though the R candidates in those two states are employing similar playbooks and both D governors are equally 'popular.' While I agree that PA is probably the race most likely to stay D, I’m not quite as sure about it going D (esp. before MI) as some others, even with a supposedly 'weaker' Republican candidate like Barletta.