MI - Craig Internal: TIE
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Author Topic: MI - Craig Internal: TIE  (Read 1006 times)
BigSerg
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« on: January 13, 2022, 12:55:58 PM »

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kwabbit
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« Reply #1 on: January 13, 2022, 01:17:40 PM »

Honestly, this is decent news for Whitmer. A tie in an internal might be around +5 Whitmer in actuality, which isn't that far off from the Glengariff poll. We need some independent polling.
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THG
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« Reply #2 on: January 13, 2022, 01:20:15 PM »
« Edited: January 13, 2022, 01:23:50 PM by THG »

This is not great for an internal.

Either way, though I still feel that Craig pulls it off in the end, most general polling when it comes to this race seems like it will be completely random and schizophrenic. I've seen polls show everything from Craig+6 to Whitmer+10 or something, lol.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #3 on: January 13, 2022, 02:20:13 PM »

I know it's very popular here to go R internal = trash, add 5 points to Democrats. I would just ask those of you to provide some examples in 2020 (the most recent election) of this phenomenon actually being true.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #4 on: January 13, 2022, 02:25:01 PM »

She's not up 10 like the other poll had it
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President Johnson
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« Reply #5 on: January 13, 2022, 02:25:57 PM »

Well, the ten point margin for Whitmer in that other recent poll was certainly too optimistic or an outlier, but if Craig can only get a tie in an internal, he has some work to do. Whitmer is definitely far from DOA as suggested by some folks. Race remains a tossup or Tilt Democratic at best.
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S019
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« Reply #6 on: January 13, 2022, 03:09:28 PM »

I'm going to offer a hot take, and that is that Whitmer's chances of re-election look materially better than Evers. As much as some ding her for her COVID response and argue it'll energize Republican turnout, which it probably will, it does also give her a distinct brand and Democratic-leaning voters see that she is actually doing something with the governorship, which very well may incentivize them to turnout. On the other hand, in neighboring Wisconsin, Evers is constantly involved in headlines of fighting with the Republican legislature, and does not really have this type of brand. There's a reason that I have this one at Tossup and I have WI at Lean R.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #7 on: January 13, 2022, 03:14:19 PM »

I'm going to offer a hot take, and that is that Whitmer's chances of re-election look materially better than Evers. As much as some ding her for her COVID response and argue it'll energize Republican turnout, which it probably will, it does also give her a distinct brand and Democratic-leaning voters see that she is actually doing something with the governorship, which very well may incentivize them to turnout. On the other hand, in neighboring Wisconsin, Evers is constantly involved in headlines of fighting with the Republican legislature, and does not really have this type of brand. There's a reason that I have this one at Tossup and I have WI at Lean R.

I don't think it was ever a hot take that Whitmer has much better reelection chances than Evers. Michigan is more Democratic and than Wisconsin.
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #8 on: January 13, 2022, 03:50:47 PM »

Whitmer's gonna lose big.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #9 on: January 13, 2022, 03:51:44 PM »


I'm surprised that you think that!
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Schiff for Senate
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« Reply #10 on: January 13, 2022, 03:59:20 PM »

I know it's very popular here to go R internal = trash, add 5 points to Democrats. I would just ask those of you to provide some examples in 2020 (the most recent election) of this phenomenon actually being true.

Honestly, I'd point out that the 2021 governor elections were the most recent. The forum as a whole overestimated the Democrats in VA and NJ, but actual polling didn't really (enough polls in VA had Youngkin leading towards the end). And in my state's recall the GOP was overestimated both on the forum and in polling. And internals always tend to be biased towards the campaign they are conducted by. So...while 5 points is probably an exaggeration, it'd be reasonable to add about 3 points to the polling for equillibrium, which makes it Whitmer+3. Either way, unless you think an internal poll by his campaign actually underestimates him, Craig isn't doing better than Whitmer.


She might lose, but whether or not she wins the margin will be under 5 points and most likely under 3 points.

I'm going to offer a hot take, and that is that Whitmer's chances of re-election look materially better than Evers. As much as some ding her for her COVID response and argue it'll energize Republican turnout, which it probably will, it does also give her a distinct brand and Democratic-leaning voters see that she is actually doing something with the governorship, which very well may incentivize them to turnout. On the other hand, in neighboring Wisconsin, Evers is constantly involved in headlines of fighting with the Republican legislature, and does not really have this type of brand. There's a reason that I have this one at Tossup and I have WI at Lean R.

I agree. The MIGOP is more vocal and mad in their opposition, but redistricting at least was relatively quite. The WIGOP voters despise Evers almost as, or just as, strongly as the MIGOP despises Whitmer, they're just less vocal. And now he's become more polarized over the redistricting battle. Lastly, WI voted more than 2 points to the right of MI in 2020, and back in 2020 Whitmer won by 9.5% while Evers won by 1.1% (though to be fair, he did face an incumbent who had survived a recall). So I think MI-GOV 2022 will be friendlier to Democrats than WI-GOV 2022. As for which victory is more important overall, I'd say MI is more important since the WI legislature has weakened the powers of the governor (I think; they did that for other offices, at least) and MI also has way more people than WI.

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Unelectable Bystander
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« Reply #11 on: January 13, 2022, 04:12:15 PM »

I know it's very popular here to go R internal = trash, add 5 points to Democrats. I would just ask those of you to provide some examples in 2020 (the most recent election) of this phenomenon actually being true.

GOP internals consistently had Youngkin +1 to +3 and everybody was digging his grave because “he couldn’t even get an internal outside the MoE”
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #12 on: January 13, 2022, 04:36:30 PM »

Typically one can add roughly 6.5% for an incumbent seeking re-election to early support because once the incumbent starts campaigning (in this case she) gets to show why she was elected the first time. Remember: the electoral campaign is not yet started. 
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #13 on: January 13, 2022, 04:36:55 PM »


Lol it's a Neutral Environment IPSOS HAS BIDEN AT 50/48 THE QU POLL WAS AN OUTLIER
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THG
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« Reply #14 on: January 13, 2022, 06:59:26 PM »

I know it's very popular here to go R internal = trash, add 5 points to Democrats. I would just ask those of you to provide some examples in 2020 (the most recent election) of this phenomenon actually being true.

GOP internals consistently had Youngkin +1 to +3 and everybody was digging his grave because “he couldn’t even get an internal outside the MoE”

Like I pointed out, while this internal isn't brilliant for Craig, it isn't hopeless either.

I distinctly recall that everyone thought Collins was DOA because she was tied in her internals.
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GregTheGreat657
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« Reply #15 on: January 13, 2022, 07:58:47 PM »

My rating for this race has changed:

Tilt R → Tossup
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Xing
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« Reply #16 on: January 13, 2022, 08:33:38 PM »

Believable. While I think Whitmer goes down in the end, I don’t think it will be by that much. Same goes for Evers.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #17 on: January 14, 2022, 09:39:39 AM »

Believable. While I think Whitmer goes down in the end, I don’t think it will be by that much. Same goes for Evers.

Sure, it's 3.9 percent unemployment and the economy is going good and incumbents do t lose when the economy is headed in right direction
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Person Man
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« Reply #18 on: January 14, 2022, 09:44:43 AM »

Which bodes well in two out of three scenarios we maybe be facing in November. If Omicron really is this death knell to the pandemic, things will start to normalize. On the other hand, this would probably be accurate if things are more or less than same in 10 months. Then again, things could totally fall apart between then and now.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #19 on: January 14, 2022, 09:47:27 AM »

Internals should be treated with extreme caution, though this is possible. Race remains a Tossup. My current prediction has Whitmer losing by ~ 2 pts, though she still has a decent chance to win.
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beesley
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« Reply #20 on: January 14, 2022, 01:20:40 PM »

I know it's very popular here to go R internal = trash, add 5 points to Democrats. I would just ask those of you to provide some examples in 2020 (the most recent election) of this phenomenon actually being true.

Not only that but everyone seems to ignore Margin of Error for internal polls.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #21 on: January 14, 2022, 01:25:14 PM »

Just because Whitmer's opponents may be more vocal than Evers's doesn’t mean that the GOP base is less energized in WI than in MI or particularly tolerant of Evers (who is more constrained by the Court than Whitmer but of course just as partisan as her), and just because Wolf, whose approval numbers have been even worse than Whitmer's in recent polling, can’t run again in 2022, doesn’t mean the GOP base in PA is less energized than in MI or that the issues driving down Whitmer's/Wolf's popularity won’t hurt Shapiro's prospects. I expect all three states to have very similar results in the end, with no race considerably more likely to flip than the other two. Republicans are slightly to moderately favored in all three states but it’s not that hard to see Democrats very narrowly holding one of them.
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« Reply #22 on: January 14, 2022, 01:32:23 PM »

Just because Whitmer's opponents may be more vocal than Evers's doesn’t mean that the GOP base is less energized in WI than in MI or particularly tolerant of Evers (who is more constrained by the Court than Whitmer but of course just as partisan as her), and just because Wolf, whose approval numbers have been even worse than Whitmer's in recent polling, can’t run again in 2022, doesn’t mean the GOP base in PA is less energized than in MI or that the issues driving down Whitmer's/Wolf's popularity won’t hurt Shapiro's prospects. I expect all three states to have very similar results in the end, with no race considerably more likely to flip than the other two. Republicans are slightly to moderately favored in all three states but it’s not that hard to see Democrats very narrowly holding one of them.

Is anyone honestly saying that Evers is less vulnerable than Whitmer? The more prevailing wisdom here seems to be that Evers is DOA while Whitmer's race is a Toss-Up. My point is that I expect Republicans to win both races by less than 5%, and while Whitmer might do a point or two better than Evers, I don't see the two races going that differently.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #23 on: January 14, 2022, 03:37:34 PM »

Is anyone honestly saying that Evers is less vulnerable than Whitmer? The more prevailing wisdom here seems to be that Evers is DOA while Whitmer's race is a Toss-Up. My point is that I expect Republicans to win both races by less than 5%, and while Whitmer might do a point or two better than Evers, I don't see the two races going that differently.

I don’t actually disagree with you here. I was mostly referring to the popular opinion on here that PA is notably more winnable for Democrats than MI even though the R candidates in those two states are employing similar playbooks and both D governors are equally 'popular.' While I agree that PA is probably the race most likely to stay D, I’m not quite as sure about it going D (esp. before MI) as some others, even with a supposedly 'weaker' Republican candidate like Barletta.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #24 on: January 14, 2022, 07:26:13 PM »

Just because Whitmer's opponents may be more vocal than Evers's doesn’t mean that the GOP base is less energized in WI than in MI or particularly tolerant of Evers (who is more constrained by the Court than Whitmer but of course just as partisan as her), and just because Wolf, whose approval numbers have been even worse than Whitmer's in recent polling, can’t run again in 2022, doesn’t mean the GOP base in PA is less energized than in MI or that the issues driving down Whitmer's/Wolf's popularity won’t hurt Shapiro's prospects. I expect all three states to have very similar results in the end, with no race considerably more likely to flip than the other two. Republicans are slightly to moderately favored in all three states but it’s not that hard to see Democrats very narrowly holding one of them.

Is anyone honestly saying that Evers is less vulnerable than Whitmer? The more prevailing wisdom here seems to be that Evers is DOA while Whitmer's race is a Toss-Up. My point is that I expect Republicans to win both races by less than 5%, and while Whitmer might do a point or two better than Evers, I don't see the two races going that differently.


Where is the poll that has Evers losing you keep saying  that WI is Lean R but there isn't any evidence of polls
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