I'm going to offer a hot take, and that is that Whitmer's chances of re-election look materially better than Evers. As much as some ding her for her COVID response and argue it'll energize Republican turnout, which it probably will, it does also give her a distinct brand and Democratic-leaning voters see that she is actually doing something with the governorship, which very well may incentivize them to turnout. On the other hand, in neighboring Wisconsin, Evers is constantly involved in headlines of fighting with the Republican legislature, and does not really have this type of brand. There's a reason that I have this one at Tossup and I have WI at Lean R.
I don't think it was ever a hot take that Whitmer has much better reelection chances than Evers. Michigan is more Democratic and than Wisconsin.
