Was 1976 being as close as it was more stunning than 2020 being as close as it was

[dw93]

Absolutely. I think either without the "no Soviet domination" gaffe or if the campaign just went on for another week, Ford would have probably have won the election. At least enough electoral votes. Or if Ford just picked another running mate, either keeping Rocky on the ticket or going with Reagan (Rockefeller secures at least New York, Reagan may have delivered Texas and Florida).

Not sure you can really cite the polls, as they were often far less accurate than today. Ford was never going to lose by 33 points, obviously. Or take 1980, Reagan was still trailing 39-45% in an October survey.

No offense against Jimmy Carter as person, but really wish Ford would have won this election.

Agreed Jerry Ford was a good guy overall and a moderate. Ford in 76 proably means no Reagan in the 80’s and maybe a more centrist GOP less dominated by the Religious right.

I think the Neoliberal consensus does get formed at some point anyway maybe beginning in 1992 instead.

I would say that depends on how successful the prez elected in 1980 is. Very likely that would have been a Dem, scoring an easy victory over VP Bob Dole. If he's successful and the economy on a good track, the New Deal era may have continued in one form or another. One of the main reasons people turned away from the New Deal consensus was the Stagflation of the 1970s, that were caused by other factors.

That said, I think the GOP's rightward shift was inevitable and another term of Ford as POTUS would have delayed that for a few more years at best.

Keep in mind much of the trends that happened in the 1980s here happened in many nations across the English speaking world so I think it’s probably inevitable the gop rightward shift happens at some point .

In an economic sense, I don't disagree with you. That said, I think in a world where Ford is elected in 1976, I think both parties are moderate socially/culturally (GOP being center-right, Dems being center-left) than they have been over the course of the last forty years, nor do I think we'd be as polarized as we have been over the last few decades. The Democrats winning '76 not only had negative lasting consequences on the Democratic party, it had negative consequences on the country as a whole, particularly political discourse over the last 40 years.

[dw93]

Absolutely. I think either without the "no Soviet domination" gaffe or if the campaign just went on for another week, Ford would have probably have won the election. At least enough electoral votes. Or if Ford just picked another running mate, either keeping Rocky on the ticket or going with Reagan (Rockefeller secures at least New York, Reagan may have delivered Texas and Florida).

Not sure you can really cite the polls, as they were often far less accurate than today. Ford was never going to lose by 33 points, obviously. Or take 1980, Reagan was still trailing 39-45% in an October survey.

No offense against Jimmy Carter as person, but really wish Ford would have won this election.

Agreed Jerry Ford was a good guy overall and a moderate. Ford in 76 proably means no Reagan in the 80’s and maybe a more centrist GOP less dominated by the Religious right.

I think the Neoliberal consensus does get formed at some point anyway maybe beginning in 1992 instead.

I would say that depends on how successful the prez elected in 1980 is. Very likely that would have been a Dem, scoring an easy victory over VP Bob Dole. If he's successful and the economy on a good track, the New Deal era may have continued in one form or another. One of the main reasons people turned away from the New Deal consensus was the Stagflation of the 1970s, that were caused by other factors.

That said, I think the GOP's rightward shift was inevitable and another term of Ford as POTUS would have delayed that for a few more years at best.

Keep in mind much of the trends that happened in the 1980s here happened in many nations across the English speaking world so I think it’s probably inevitable the gop rightward shift happens at some point .

In an economic sense, I don't disagree with you. That said, I think in a world where Ford is elected in 1976, I think both parties are moderate socially/culturally (GOP being center-right, Dems being center-left) than they have been over the course of the last forty years, nor do I think we'd be as polarized as we have been over the last few decades. The Democrats winning '76 not only had negative lasting consequences on the Democratic party, it had negative consequences on the country as a whole, particularly political discourse over the last 40 years.

In addition to what Reagan himself did as President, Reagan’s coattails flipped the Senate in 1980, making Strom Thurmond Chair of the Judiciary Committee and setting the stage for the War on Drugs.

To be fair, the War on Drugs did start with Nixon, but I agree it wouldn't have intensified as much as it did with Reagan. The Senate could potentially flip in 1982 if a Democrat has a bad midterm though.