Was 1976 being as close as it was more stunning than 2020 being as close as it was
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  Was 1976 being as close as it was more stunning than 2020 being as close as it was
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Author Topic: Was 1976 being as close as it was more stunning than 2020 being as close as it was  (Read 1147 times)
OSR stands with Israel
Computer89
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« on: January 13, 2022, 02:49:41 AM »

Keep in mind in 1976:

- The Republican Incumbent was not elected to that role and barely was renominated

- The Democratic Party was far more structurally stronger in 1976 than 2020 and the Republican Party was far more structurally weaker

- While those polls showing Biden +17 in Wisconsin and double digits nationally may seem to have been big, keep in mind Carter was up 33 points on Ford

-  It was a far less polarized era


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Liberalrocks
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« Reply #1 on: January 13, 2022, 04:08:52 PM »

Ford coming so close to winning I think was more stunning, considering the Nixon pardon and his early polling deficit. His debate gaffe "No Soviet Domination in Eastern Europe" proably cost him Ohio and Wisconsin and thus the election.  I think if the vote was maybe even a few days later, Ford proably wins the electoral vote, but not the popular vote.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #2 on: January 13, 2022, 04:31:20 PM »

Absolutely. I think either without the "no Soviet domination" gaffe or if the campaign just went on for another week, Ford would have probably have won the election. At least enough electoral votes. Or if Ford just picked another running mate, either keeping Rocky on the ticket or going with Reagan (Rockefeller secures at least New York, Reagan may have delivered Texas and Florida).

Not sure you can really cite the polls, as they were often far less accurate than today. Ford was never going to lose by 33 points, obviously. Or take 1980, Reagan was still trailing 39-45% in an October survey.

No offense against Jimmy Carter as person, but really wish Ford would have won this election.
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Liberalrocks
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« Reply #3 on: January 14, 2022, 01:22:53 AM »

Absolutely. I think either without the "no Soviet domination" gaffe or if the campaign just went on for another week, Ford would have probably have won the election. At least enough electoral votes. Or if Ford just picked another running mate, either keeping Rocky on the ticket or going with Reagan (Rockefeller secures at least New York, Reagan may have delivered Texas and Florida).

Not sure you can really cite the polls, as they were often far less accurate than today. Ford was never going to lose by 33 points, obviously. Or take 1980, Reagan was still trailing 39-45% in an October survey.

No offense against Jimmy Carter as person, but really wish Ford would have won this election.
Agreed Jerry Ford was a good guy overall and a moderate. Ford in 76 proably means no Reagan in the 80’s and maybe a more centrist GOP less dominated by the Religious right.
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OSR stands with Israel
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« Reply #4 on: January 14, 2022, 01:24:31 AM »

Absolutely. I think either without the "no Soviet domination" gaffe or if the campaign just went on for another week, Ford would have probably have won the election. At least enough electoral votes. Or if Ford just picked another running mate, either keeping Rocky on the ticket or going with Reagan (Rockefeller secures at least New York, Reagan may have delivered Texas and Florida).

Not sure you can really cite the polls, as they were often far less accurate than today. Ford was never going to lose by 33 points, obviously. Or take 1980, Reagan was still trailing 39-45% in an October survey.

No offense against Jimmy Carter as person, but really wish Ford would have won this election.
Agreed Jerry Ford was a good guy overall and a moderate. Ford in 76 proably means no Reagan in the 80’s and maybe a more centrist GOP less dominated by the Religious right.

I think the Neoliberal consensus does get formed at some point anyway maybe beginning in 1992 instead.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #5 on: January 14, 2022, 10:20:53 AM »

Absolutely. I think either without the "no Soviet domination" gaffe or if the campaign just went on for another week, Ford would have probably have won the election. At least enough electoral votes. Or if Ford just picked another running mate, either keeping Rocky on the ticket or going with Reagan (Rockefeller secures at least New York, Reagan may have delivered Texas and Florida).

Not sure you can really cite the polls, as they were often far less accurate than today. Ford was never going to lose by 33 points, obviously. Or take 1980, Reagan was still trailing 39-45% in an October survey.

No offense against Jimmy Carter as person, but really wish Ford would have won this election.
Agreed Jerry Ford was a good guy overall and a moderate. Ford in 76 proably means no Reagan in the 80’s and maybe a more centrist GOP less dominated by the Religious right.

I think the Neoliberal consensus does get formed at some point anyway maybe beginning in 1992 instead.

I would say that depends on how successful the prez elected in 1980 is. Very likely that would have been a Dem, scoring an easy victory over VP Bob Dole. If he's successful and the economy on a good track, the New Deal era may have continued in one form or another. One of the main reasons people turned away from the New Deal consensus was the Stagflation of the 1970s, that were caused by other factors.

That said, I think the GOP's rightward shift was inevitable and another term of Ford as POTUS would have delayed that for a few more years at best.
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OSR stands with Israel
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« Reply #6 on: January 14, 2022, 10:30:04 AM »

Absolutely. I think either without the "no Soviet domination" gaffe or if the campaign just went on for another week, Ford would have probably have won the election. At least enough electoral votes. Or if Ford just picked another running mate, either keeping Rocky on the ticket or going with Reagan (Rockefeller secures at least New York, Reagan may have delivered Texas and Florida).

Not sure you can really cite the polls, as they were often far less accurate than today. Ford was never going to lose by 33 points, obviously. Or take 1980, Reagan was still trailing 39-45% in an October survey.

No offense against Jimmy Carter as person, but really wish Ford would have won this election.
Agreed Jerry Ford was a good guy overall and a moderate. Ford in 76 proably means no Reagan in the 80’s and maybe a more centrist GOP less dominated by the Religious right.

I think the Neoliberal consensus does get formed at some point anyway maybe beginning in 1992 instead.

I would say that depends on how successful the prez elected in 1980 is. Very likely that would have been a Dem, scoring an easy victory over VP Bob Dole. If he's successful and the economy on a good track, the New Deal era may have continued in one form or another. One of the main reasons people turned away from the New Deal consensus was the Stagflation of the 1970s, that were caused by other factors.

That said, I think the GOP's rightward shift was inevitable and another term of Ford as POTUS would have delayed that for a few more years at best.

Keep in mind much of the trends that happened in the 1980s here happened in many nations across the English speaking world so I think it’s probably inevitable the gop rightward shift happens at some point .


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dw93
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« Reply #7 on: January 17, 2022, 06:44:44 PM »

Absolutely. I think either without the "no Soviet domination" gaffe or if the campaign just went on for another week, Ford would have probably have won the election. At least enough electoral votes. Or if Ford just picked another running mate, either keeping Rocky on the ticket or going with Reagan (Rockefeller secures at least New York, Reagan may have delivered Texas and Florida).

Not sure you can really cite the polls, as they were often far less accurate than today. Ford was never going to lose by 33 points, obviously. Or take 1980, Reagan was still trailing 39-45% in an October survey.

No offense against Jimmy Carter as person, but really wish Ford would have won this election.
Agreed Jerry Ford was a good guy overall and a moderate. Ford in 76 proably means no Reagan in the 80’s and maybe a more centrist GOP less dominated by the Religious right.

I think the Neoliberal consensus does get formed at some point anyway maybe beginning in 1992 instead.

I would say that depends on how successful the prez elected in 1980 is. Very likely that would have been a Dem, scoring an easy victory over VP Bob Dole. If he's successful and the economy on a good track, the New Deal era may have continued in one form or another. One of the main reasons people turned away from the New Deal consensus was the Stagflation of the 1970s, that were caused by other factors.

That said, I think the GOP's rightward shift was inevitable and another term of Ford as POTUS would have delayed that for a few more years at best.

Keep in mind much of the trends that happened in the 1980s here happened in many nations across the English speaking world so I think it’s probably inevitable the gop rightward shift happens at some point .




In an economic sense, I don't disagree with you. That said, I think in a world where Ford is elected in 1976, I think both parties are moderate socially/culturally (GOP being center-right, Dems being center-left) than they have been over the course of the last forty years, nor do I think we'd be as polarized as we have been over the last few decades. The Democrats winning '76 not only had negative lasting consequences on the Democratic party, it had negative consequences on the country as a whole, particularly political discourse over the last 40 years.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #8 on: January 17, 2022, 07:51:21 PM »
« Edited: January 17, 2022, 07:55:31 PM by MT Treasurer »

Both of these elections should have been major warning signs to the victorious party that their narrow victory might have concealed an underlying and ongoing rightward shift of the nation, which they only defied because of the unpopularity of the incumbent President and a culturally acceptable Democratic nominee who managed a last hurrah in a lot of R-trending areas. If Biden doesn’t see those parallels (esp. after a resounding 2022 defeat) and refuses to adjust his governing style, it’s not that hard to see him ending up like Carter against a skilled R opponent (yes, he obviously wouldn’t lose nowhere near as badly as Carter, but a decisive EC victory + substantial gains in the Senate are both very much possible, just like in 1980).
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The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ
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« Reply #9 on: January 18, 2022, 11:10:45 AM »

In the discussion about 1976, people always remember that Ford pardoned Nixon, wasn't very popular, and made that gaffe. What people often don't realize is that 1976 was also a year of economic growth. The GDP grew by 5.4% that year, and naturally, Ford got a lot of credit for that. This was also a period of Republican ascendance. The Southern Strategy obviously wouldn't work very well against a guy like Carter, but the fast-growing suburbs of the northeast, midwest, and California were the other bedrock of GOP support that created an era of Republican dominance of the White House from Nixon through HW.

Really, the fundamentals should have been there for a Republican presidential win in 1976, but after Watergate, people wanted to punish the GOP, and the Democrats nominating a religious southerner sealed the deal. But against a Northern Democrat, Ford probably would have won, irrespective of Watergate.
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« Reply #10 on: January 20, 2022, 02:07:48 AM »

In the discussion about 1976, people always remember that Ford pardoned Nixon, wasn't very popular, and made that gaffe. What people often don't realize is that 1976 was also a year of economic growth. The GDP grew by 5.4% that year, and naturally, Ford got a lot of credit for that. This was also a period of Republican ascendance. The Southern Strategy obviously wouldn't work very well against a guy like Carter, but the fast-growing suburbs of the northeast, midwest, and California were the other bedrock of GOP support that created an era of Republican dominance of the White House from Nixon through HW.

Really, the fundamentals should have been there for a Republican presidential win in 1976, but after Watergate, people wanted to punish the GOP, and the Democrats nominating a religious southerner sealed the deal. But against a Northern Democrat, Ford probably would have won, irrespective of Watergate.

Unemployment was still 7.8% in November 1976 while it was 6.7% in November of 2020 and was rapidly going down by then as well.

https://www.multpl.com/unemployment/table/by-month

Also Inflation was much higher in November of 1976 than November of 2020 as well
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« Reply #11 on: January 20, 2022, 09:51:12 AM »

In the discussion about 1976, people always remember that Ford pardoned Nixon, wasn't very popular, and made that gaffe. What people often don't realize is that 1976 was also a year of economic growth. The GDP grew by 5.4% that year, and naturally, Ford got a lot of credit for that. This was also a period of Republican ascendance. The Southern Strategy obviously wouldn't work very well against a guy like Carter, but the fast-growing suburbs of the northeast, midwest, and California were the other bedrock of GOP support that created an era of Republican dominance of the White House from Nixon through HW.

Really, the fundamentals should have been there for a Republican presidential win in 1976, but after Watergate, people wanted to punish the GOP, and the Democrats nominating a religious southerner sealed the deal. But against a Northern Democrat, Ford probably would have won, irrespective of Watergate.

Unemployment was still 7.8% in November 1976 while it was 6.7% in November of 2020 and was rapidly going down by then as well.

https://www.multpl.com/unemployment/table/by-month

Also Inflation was much higher in November of 1976 than November of 2020 as well

True, but voters in 1976 wouldn't have been comparing to 2020.1974/75 were recession years, but 1976 saw the US coming out of the recession while inflation was going down.
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darklordoftech
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« Reply #12 on: January 21, 2022, 06:32:58 PM »

Absolutely. I think either without the "no Soviet domination" gaffe or if the campaign just went on for another week, Ford would have probably have won the election. At least enough electoral votes. Or if Ford just picked another running mate, either keeping Rocky on the ticket or going with Reagan (Rockefeller secures at least New York, Reagan may have delivered Texas and Florida).

Not sure you can really cite the polls, as they were often far less accurate than today. Ford was never going to lose by 33 points, obviously. Or take 1980, Reagan was still trailing 39-45% in an October survey.

No offense against Jimmy Carter as person, but really wish Ford would have won this election.
Agreed Jerry Ford was a good guy overall and a moderate. Ford in 76 proably means no Reagan in the 80’s and maybe a more centrist GOP less dominated by the Religious right.

I think the Neoliberal consensus does get formed at some point anyway maybe beginning in 1992 instead.

I would say that depends on how successful the prez elected in 1980 is. Very likely that would have been a Dem, scoring an easy victory over VP Bob Dole. If he's successful and the economy on a good track, the New Deal era may have continued in one form or another. One of the main reasons people turned away from the New Deal consensus was the Stagflation of the 1970s, that were caused by other factors.

That said, I think the GOP's rightward shift was inevitable and another term of Ford as POTUS would have delayed that for a few more years at best.

Keep in mind much of the trends that happened in the 1980s here happened in many nations across the English speaking world so I think it’s probably inevitable the gop rightward shift happens at some point .




In an economic sense, I don't disagree with you. That said, I think in a world where Ford is elected in 1976, I think both parties are moderate socially/culturally (GOP being center-right, Dems being center-left) than they have been over the course of the last forty years, nor do I think we'd be as polarized as we have been over the last few decades. The Democrats winning '76 not only had negative lasting consequences on the Democratic party, it had negative consequences on the country as a whole, particularly political discourse over the last 40 years.
In addition to what Reagan himself did as President, Reagan’s coattails flipped the Senate in 1980, making Strom Thurmond Chair of the Judiciary Committee and setting the stage for the War on Drugs.
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dw93
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« Reply #13 on: January 21, 2022, 09:55:38 PM »

Absolutely. I think either without the "no Soviet domination" gaffe or if the campaign just went on for another week, Ford would have probably have won the election. At least enough electoral votes. Or if Ford just picked another running mate, either keeping Rocky on the ticket or going with Reagan (Rockefeller secures at least New York, Reagan may have delivered Texas and Florida).

Not sure you can really cite the polls, as they were often far less accurate than today. Ford was never going to lose by 33 points, obviously. Or take 1980, Reagan was still trailing 39-45% in an October survey.

No offense against Jimmy Carter as person, but really wish Ford would have won this election.
Agreed Jerry Ford was a good guy overall and a moderate. Ford in 76 proably means no Reagan in the 80’s and maybe a more centrist GOP less dominated by the Religious right.

I think the Neoliberal consensus does get formed at some point anyway maybe beginning in 1992 instead.

I would say that depends on how successful the prez elected in 1980 is. Very likely that would have been a Dem, scoring an easy victory over VP Bob Dole. If he's successful and the economy on a good track, the New Deal era may have continued in one form or another. One of the main reasons people turned away from the New Deal consensus was the Stagflation of the 1970s, that were caused by other factors.

That said, I think the GOP's rightward shift was inevitable and another term of Ford as POTUS would have delayed that for a few more years at best.

Keep in mind much of the trends that happened in the 1980s here happened in many nations across the English speaking world so I think it’s probably inevitable the gop rightward shift happens at some point .




In an economic sense, I don't disagree with you. That said, I think in a world where Ford is elected in 1976, I think both parties are moderate socially/culturally (GOP being center-right, Dems being center-left) than they have been over the course of the last forty years, nor do I think we'd be as polarized as we have been over the last few decades. The Democrats winning '76 not only had negative lasting consequences on the Democratic party, it had negative consequences on the country as a whole, particularly political discourse over the last 40 years.
In addition to what Reagan himself did as President, Reagan’s coattails flipped the Senate in 1980, making Strom Thurmond Chair of the Judiciary Committee and setting the stage for the War on Drugs.

To be fair, the War on Drugs did start with Nixon, but I agree it wouldn't have intensified as much as it did with Reagan. The Senate could potentially flip in 1982 if a Democrat has a bad midterm though.
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darklordoftech
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« Reply #14 on: January 21, 2022, 10:07:24 PM »

Absolutely. I think either without the "no Soviet domination" gaffe or if the campaign just went on for another week, Ford would have probably have won the election. At least enough electoral votes. Or if Ford just picked another running mate, either keeping Rocky on the ticket or going with Reagan (Rockefeller secures at least New York, Reagan may have delivered Texas and Florida).

Not sure you can really cite the polls, as they were often far less accurate than today. Ford was never going to lose by 33 points, obviously. Or take 1980, Reagan was still trailing 39-45% in an October survey.

No offense against Jimmy Carter as person, but really wish Ford would have won this election.
Agreed Jerry Ford was a good guy overall and a moderate. Ford in 76 proably means no Reagan in the 80’s and maybe a more centrist GOP less dominated by the Religious right.

I think the Neoliberal consensus does get formed at some point anyway maybe beginning in 1992 instead.

I would say that depends on how successful the prez elected in 1980 is. Very likely that would have been a Dem, scoring an easy victory over VP Bob Dole. If he's successful and the economy on a good track, the New Deal era may have continued in one form or another. One of the main reasons people turned away from the New Deal consensus was the Stagflation of the 1970s, that were caused by other factors.

That said, I think the GOP's rightward shift was inevitable and another term of Ford as POTUS would have delayed that for a few more years at best.

Keep in mind much of the trends that happened in the 1980s here happened in many nations across the English speaking world so I think it’s probably inevitable the gop rightward shift happens at some point .




In an economic sense, I don't disagree with you. That said, I think in a world where Ford is elected in 1976, I think both parties are moderate socially/culturally (GOP being center-right, Dems being center-left) than they have been over the course of the last forty years, nor do I think we'd be as polarized as we have been over the last few decades. The Democrats winning '76 not only had negative lasting consequences on the Democratic party, it had negative consequences on the country as a whole, particularly political discourse over the last 40 years.
In addition to what Reagan himself did as President, Reagan’s coattails flipped the Senate in 1980, making Strom Thurmond Chair of the Judiciary Committee and setting the stage for the War on Drugs.

To be fair, the War on Drugs did start with Nixon, but I agree it wouldn't have intensified as much as it did with Reagan. The Senate could potentially flip in 1982 if a Democrat has a bad midterm though.
When Nixon was President, James Eastland was Chair of the Judiciary Committee. Eastland didn’t run for re-election in 1978, so Ted Kennedy took over as Chair of the Judiciary Committee, a job he would have held for longer had Democrats kept control of the Senate longer.
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