Was 1976 being as close as it was more stunning than 2020 being as close as it was

[OSR stands with Israel]

Keep in mind in 1976:

- The Republican Incumbent was not elected to that role and barely was renominated

- The Democratic Party was far more structurally stronger in 1976 than 2020 and the Republican Party was far more structurally weaker

- While those polls showing Biden +17 in Wisconsin and double digits nationally may seem to have been big, keep in mind Carter was up 33 points on Ford

-  It was a far less polarized era

[OSR stands with Israel]

Absolutely. I think either without the "no Soviet domination" gaffe or if the campaign just went on for another week, Ford would have probably have won the election. At least enough electoral votes. Or if Ford just picked another running mate, either keeping Rocky on the ticket or going with Reagan (Rockefeller secures at least New York, Reagan may have delivered Texas and Florida).

Not sure you can really cite the polls, as they were often far less accurate than today. Ford was never going to lose by 33 points, obviously. Or take 1980, Reagan was still trailing 39-45% in an October survey.

No offense against Jimmy Carter as person, but really wish Ford would have won this election.

Agreed Jerry Ford was a good guy overall and a moderate. Ford in 76 proably means no Reagan in the 80’s and maybe a more centrist GOP less dominated by the Religious right.

I think the Neoliberal consensus does get formed at some point anyway maybe beginning in 1992 instead.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Absolutely. I think either without the "no Soviet domination" gaffe or if the campaign just went on for another week, Ford would have probably have won the election. At least enough electoral votes. Or if Ford just picked another running mate, either keeping Rocky on the ticket or going with Reagan (Rockefeller secures at least New York, Reagan may have delivered Texas and Florida).

Not sure you can really cite the polls, as they were often far less accurate than today. Ford was never going to lose by 33 points, obviously. Or take 1980, Reagan was still trailing 39-45% in an October survey.

No offense against Jimmy Carter as person, but really wish Ford would have won this election.

Agreed Jerry Ford was a good guy overall and a moderate. Ford in 76 proably means no Reagan in the 80’s and maybe a more centrist GOP less dominated by the Religious right.

I think the Neoliberal consensus does get formed at some point anyway maybe beginning in 1992 instead.

I would say that depends on how successful the prez elected in 1980 is. Very likely that would have been a Dem, scoring an easy victory over VP Bob Dole. If he's successful and the economy on a good track, the New Deal era may have continued in one form or another. One of the main reasons people turned away from the New Deal consensus was the Stagflation of the 1970s, that were caused by other factors.

That said, I think the GOP's rightward shift was inevitable and another term of Ford as POTUS would have delayed that for a few more years at best.

Keep in mind much of the trends that happened in the 1980s here happened in many nations across the English speaking world so I think it’s probably inevitable the gop rightward shift happens at some point .

[OSR stands with Israel]

In the discussion about 1976, people always remember that Ford pardoned Nixon, wasn't very popular, and made that gaffe. What people often don't realize is that 1976 was also a year of economic growth. The GDP grew by 5.4% that year, and naturally, Ford got a lot of credit for that. This was also a period of Republican ascendance. The Southern Strategy obviously wouldn't work very well against a guy like Carter, but the fast-growing suburbs of the northeast, midwest, and California were the other bedrock of GOP support that created an era of Republican dominance of the White House from Nixon through HW.

Really, the fundamentals should have been there for a Republican presidential win in 1976, but after Watergate, people wanted to punish the GOP, and the Democrats nominating a religious southerner sealed the deal. But against a Northern Democrat, Ford probably would have won, irrespective of Watergate.

Unemployment was still 7.8% in November 1976 while it was 6.7% in November of 2020 and was rapidly going down by then as well.

https://www.multpl.com/unemployment/table/by-month

Also Inflation was much higher in November of 1976 than November of 2020 as well