MD Senate - Hogan internal: Hogan +12

[Senator Incitatus]

63% won’t vote for Van Hollen

Former Senator Robert Casey Jr.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Not happening with Tom Perez as a shoe in for Gov Hogan winning by 12, Van Hollen will win

[redjohn]

Lol, this would be disastrous for Democrats. Who knows how realistic this is, but a 56-44 Republican Senate balance (which this would presumably indicate) would destroy any chances at a unified Democratic government for quite a while.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lol, this would be disastrous for Democrats. Who knows how realistic this is, but a 56-44 Republican Senate balance (which this would presumably indicate) would destroy any chances at a unified Democratic government for quite a while.

Lol Van Hollen isn't Loosing with Tom Perez a shoe in for Gov😁😁😁

3.0 Unemployment is good enough for a 289 EC map

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

I'd like to believe this, but I just don't.

[Pericles]

Lol, this would be disastrous for Democrats. Who knows how realistic this is, but a 56-44 Republican Senate balance (which this would presumably indicate) would destroy any chances at a unified Democratic government for quite a while.

If Democrats lose the Senate in 2022 at all, because of the 2024 Senate map, they aren't getting it back for many years.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lol, this would be disastrous for Democrats. Who knows how realistic this is, but a 56-44 Republican Senate balance (which this would presumably indicate) would destroy any chances at a unified Democratic government for quite a while.

If Democrats lose the Senate in 2022 at all, because of the 2024 Senate map, they aren't getting it back for many years.

As I have stated 3 times already Van Hollen isn't losing with Perez winning Gov race

[MT Treasurer]

"Hogan and Whitmer both win imo"

In all seriousness, a Generic R is more likely to win a Senate race in IL and VT than in MD. Even if we assume that Hogan is a uniquely strong challenger who will retain most of his crossover appeal in an extremely challenging campaign without alienating a large portion of the R base or seeing his strength among Democrats collapse (very doubtful), all that would do is make the race more competitive than those states, which isn’t saying much in a state Biden won by 33 percentage points and more than one million votes — in fact, only VT, CO, and NH had stronger Democratic trends than in MD in 2020. At the end of the day, I’d still expect any Democrat to win a solid 56-43 victory over Hogan, somewhat similar to how TN-SEN 2018 played out. I don’t even think it’s a given that Hogan would come closer to winning than 'weaker' Republican challengers in OR, WA, and IL.

Of course this is still the best possible environment for Hogan to launch a Senate bid, but if this seat is in actual danger of flipping on election night, 2022 will make 2010 look like a Republican ripple. For now, however, this is yet another race where it’s better to go with the fundamentals — still Safe D.

[Miked0920]

Good Points MT Treasurer, do you actually believe Hogan will run for Senate at this point, or do you see this as more of a "kabuki dance" and that he is more likely to run for president in 24 if he runs for anything again?

[RRusso1982]

Hogan running for Senate against Van Hollen would shake out like Weld/Kerry in 1996.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Hogan hasn't declared anything, don't get your hopes up on this race

[Holmes]

Giving TN-SEN 2018 vibes.

[MillennialModerate]

I was on the main page and saw….

“MD-SEN Hogan Internal”

Nearly had a heart attack

[Schiff for Senate]

If Hogan decides to run, he will lose decisively, just like former Governors Bayh, Strickland, Bredesen, and Bullock did in their Senatorial races. This seems suspiciously similar, in fact, to early polls we saw in Indiana and in Tennessee, where Bayh and Bredesen led by substantial margins, only for Young and Blackburn to close the gap (if there ever was one) and to win by high single to low double digits on Election Day. Hogan might be able to crack 40%, but he would still lose to Van Hollen by 12-20 points.

This. Hogan will probably break 40% but breaking 45% will be much harder and probably won't happen.

[Schiff for Senate]

Yeah Hogan's bowed out so this is all a moot point. Safe D ----> Safe D

I was on the main page and saw….

“MD-SEN Hogan Internal”

Nearly had a heart attack

I hope this is hyperbolic. If not, I'd advise you take a break from politics for a bit. (As a sidenote though, while I get what you're saying, considering that this is a board dedicated to polling, it'd make more sense for such a thread to be in the Congressional Elections board.)