🇳🇱 Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: General Election (Nov 22)

[Vosem]

I know I'm a dumb American, but don't big-tent anti- (insert party here) coalitions generally seem to result in said party gaining ground? Like I know part of the reason FdI surged so much between 2018 and 2022 was because they were the only party always in the opposition.

I could easily see an anti-PVV coalition collapsing and Wilders getting 50 seats in the next election.

Wait, are you not Norwegian?

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

I know I'm a dumb American, but don't big-tent anti- (insert party here) coalitions generally seem to result in said party gaining ground? Like I know part of the reason FdI surged so much between 2018 and 2022 was because they were the only party always in the opposition.

I could easily see an anti-PVV coalition collapsing and Wilders getting 50 seats in the next election.

Yeah. If an unstable anti-PVV coalition takes power and things don't massively improve, Wilders will do insanely well next time around.
This is the same reason why the AfD doesn't necessarily present a threat in Germany yet, but if they do well enough to push every other party into a chaotic coalition, they would be the de-facto opposition and very likely do way better in the election after that.

[Aurelius2]

I know I'm a dumb American, but don't big-tent anti- (insert party here) coalitions generally seem to result in said party gaining ground? Like I know part of the reason FdI surged so much between 2018 and 2022 was because they were the only party always in the opposition.

I could easily see an anti-PVV coalition collapsing and Wilders getting 50 seats in the next election.

Yeah. If an unstable anti-PVV coalition takes power and things don't massively improve, Wilders will do insanely well next time around.
This is the same reason why the AfD doesn't necessarily present a threat in Germany yet, but if they do well enough to push every other party into a chaotic coalition, they would be the de-facto opposition and very likely do way better in the election after that.

Hot take time: my suspicion regarding Germany is that at some point push will come to shove and the AfD will split into two parties, der Flugel (the far-right Bjorn Hocke faction) and the rest of the party. The non-Flugel part will then break the cordon - they'll be the PVV to Hocke's FvD. The coalitions required to keep AfD out of government are just getting too weird and unstable for the status quo to continue indefinitely. At the same time, no one in their right mind will willingly coalition with a political movement as extreme as Hocke's faction, especially in a country like Germany where the shadow of history is especially heavy.

Right now if you're on the Right and not a neoliberal/libertarian (thus ruling out FDP), your only options (unless you're in Bavaria, where the FW are an option and where their CSU is a bit more right-wing thsn the CDU it substitutes for) are the CDU, which barely even makes a pretense of being right of center these days, and the AFD, which contains the single most extreme-right faction in western European politics. I don't see how this can (or should) hold.

[Vosem]

My suspicion in Germany is that Die Linke is going to get sane-washed before AfD does; if it really is replaced by a wholly new Wagenknecht-led party which the SPD and Greens are broadly willing to form a coalition with, then an actually left-wing coalition becomes an option again, and the "negative majority" scenario of AfD and Linke is placed much further away.

I agree that there's obviously room for a party between where the current CDU is and where the current AfD is (and the polls showing the CSU going national would do well demonstrate this), but I don't think such a party is all that close to actually forming while the CDU is polling so well for the next election, and I think when it does form it would be likelier to do well if it were a further-right breakoff from the CDU/CSU rather than if it were the AfD splitting in half. It's kind of forgotten now outside the Netherlands, but PVV was originally a split-off from the VVD (and it also benefited from the general legacy of Pim Fortuyn making the cordon sanitaire against the far-right much less of a thing than it was in most places), and I think this made them more credible to certain voters.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Many point to Australia and Canada as examples of high immigration countries with no backlash

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

My suspicion in Germany is that Die Linke is going to get sane-washed before AfD does; if it really is replaced by a wholly new Wagenknecht-led party which the SPD and Greens are broadly willing to form a coalition with, then an actually left-wing coalition becomes an option again, and the "negative majority" scenario of AfD and Linke is placed much further away.

I agree that there's obviously room for a party between where the current CDU is and where the current AfD is (and the polls showing the CSU going national would do well demonstrate this), but I don't think such a party is all that close to actually forming while the CDU is polling so well for the next election, and I think when it does form it would be likelier to do well if it were a further-right breakoff from the CDU/CSU rather than if it were the AfD splitting in half. It's kind of forgotten now outside the Netherlands, but PVV was originally a split-off from the VVD (and it also benefited from the general legacy of Pim Fortuyn making the cordon sanitaire against the far-right much less of a thing than it was in most places), and I think this made them more credible to certain voters.

Isnt the Wagenknecht party viewed as more out of the mainstream than Die Linke?

[DavidB.]

Back to the Netherlands: turnout among voters between 18 and 35 years old decreased from 80% to 73%. If only the votes of the ones who did turn out were counted, the PVV would be even bigger:



Meanwhile, pressure on the VVD to change their minds and open up to coalition talks is increasing. Not only PVV, but also NSC and BBB have condemned Yesilgöz' stance. Today's Telegraaf's headline is "The VVD dropping out is baffling" and the first four pages of the newspaper are filled with articles condemning this decision. The leader of the VVD in The Hague, Lotte van Basten Batenburg, also speaks out in favor of cooperating with the PVV. The (factually correct) frame that the VVD let the government collapse over immigration, is now finally in the position to do something about it but is walking away from taking responsibility is effective. With the vast majority of VVD voters supporting them entering a coalition with the PVV, I fully expect them to change their minds.

[Pick Up the Phone]

My suspicion in Germany is that Die Linke is going to get sane-washed before AfD does; if it really is replaced by a wholly new Wagenknecht-led party which the SPD and Greens are broadly willing to form a coalition with, then an actually left-wing coalition becomes an option again, and the "negative majority" scenario of AfD and Linke is placed much further away.

I agree that there's obviously room for a party between where the current CDU is and where the current AfD is (and the polls showing the CSU going national would do well demonstrate this), but I don't think such a party is all that close to actually forming while the CDU is polling so well for the next election, and I think when it does form it would be likelier to do well if it were a further-right breakoff from the CDU/CSU rather than if it were the AfD splitting in half. It's kind of forgotten now outside the Netherlands, but PVV was originally a split-off from the VVD (and it also benefited from the general legacy of Pim Fortuyn making the cordon sanitaire against the far-right much less of a thing than it was in most places), and I think this made them more credible to certain voters.

Isnt the Wagenknecht party viewed as more out of the mainstream than Die Linke?

Depends on what you see as mainstream and what the party will actually look like. (It has not been founded yet.) But in general, the main problem with the LINKE is its SED legacy, its “woke” tendencies, and its open door immigration policy, which is clearly not in line with German public opinion in 2023. Just look at who they have nominated for the upcoming European elections. The main problem with Wagenknecht’s party will most likely be its foreign policy positions, its lack of support for European integration, and… well, the fact that it will be Wagenknecht’s party and there is a deep political distrust of this kind of hyper-personalistic politics.

[wnwnwn]

Back to the Netherlands: turnout among voters between 18 and 35 years old decreased from 80% to 73%. If only the votes of the ones who did turn out were counted, the PVV would be even bigger:



Meanwhile, pressure on the VVD to change their minds and open up to coalition talks is increasing. Not only PVV, but also NSC and BBB have condemned Yesilgöz' stance. Today's Telegraaf's headline is "The VVD dropping out is baffling" and the first three pages of the newspaper are filled with articles condemning this decision. The leader of the VVD in The Hague, Lotte van Basten Batenburg, also speaks out in favor of cooperating with the PVV. The (factually correct) frame that the VVD let the government collapse over immigration, is now finally in the position to do something about it but is walking away from taking responsibility is effective. With the vast majority of VVD voters supporting them entering a coalition with the PVV, I fully expect them to change their minds.

A non negible number of people have anti inmigration stances but are otherwise moderate.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

Back to the Netherlands: turnout among voters between 18 and 35 years old decreased from 80% to 73%. If only the votes of the ones who did turn out were counted, the PVV would be even bigger:



Meanwhile, pressure on the VVD to change their minds and open up to coalition talks is increasing. Not only PVV, but also NSC and BBB have condemned Yesilgöz' stance. Today's Telegraaf's headline is "The VVD dropping out is baffling" and the first three pages of the newspaper are filled with articles condemning this decision. The leader of the VVD in The Hague, Lotte van Basten Batenburg, also speaks out in favor of cooperating with the PVV. The (factually correct) frame that the VVD let the government collapse over immigration, is now finally in the position to do something about it but is walking away from taking responsibility is effective. With the vast majority of VVD voters supporting them entering a coalition with the PVV, I fully expect them to change their minds.

That 3 > 9 seat increase for DENK is pretty sad, are migrant youth more likely to be part of such parties or is it simply because they form a larger percentage of the 18-35 age demographic presumably? I would've hoped it would be the opposite effect, since I really do think such parties are very unhealthy for a society. And probably, whether rightfully or not, fuel the sentiment that makes even liberal-minded people vote PVV.

[DavidB.]

That 3 > 9 seat increase for DENK is pretty sad, are migrant youth more likely to be part of such parties or is it simply because they form a larger percentage of the 18-35 age demographic presumably? I would've hoped it would be the opposite effect, since I really do think such parties are very unhealthy for a society. And probably, whether rightfully or not, fuel the sentiment that makes even liberal-minded people vote PVV.

It's both. The primary reason is that a larger percentage of the younger population is Muslim, but younger Muslims are also more likely to vote for DENK than older Muslims.

Amsterdam:

28.8% GL-PvdA (+11.2)
10.2% VVD (-2.8 )
  8.5% D66 (-14.2)
  8.2% PVV (+3.1)
  6.2% DENK (-0.4)
  5.6% NSC (new)
  4.0% PVdD (-3.0)
  3.4% Volt (-2.5)
  2.7% SP (-2.2)
  2.2% FvD (-0.5)

Amsterdam was counted 100% only today. In the end, GL-PvdA received almost 34% of the vote and thereby snatched the 150th seat from D66. Full results for Amsterdam here: https://onderzoek.amsterdam.nl/artikel/uitslag-tweede-kamerverkiezingen-2023.

Unfortunately BRTD still won't be able to visit, because Schiphol Airport is located in the municipality of Haarlemmermeer, which went PVV.

[KaiserDave]

I know I'm a dumb American, but don't big-tent anti- (insert party here) coalitions generally seem to result in said party gaining ground? Like I know part of the reason FdI surged so much between 2018 and 2022 was because they were the only party always in the opposition.

I could easily see an anti-PVV coalition collapsing and Wilders getting 50 seats in the next election.

Yeah. If an unstable anti-PVV coalition takes power and things don't massively improve, Wilders will do insanely well next time around.
This is the same reason why the AfD doesn't necessarily present a threat in Germany yet, but if they do well enough to push every other party into a chaotic coalition, they would be the de-facto opposition and very likely do way better in the election after that.

Hot take time: my suspicion regarding Germany is that at some point push will come to shove and the AfD will split into two parties, der Flugel (the far-right Bjorn Hocke faction) and the rest of the party. The non-Flugel part will then break the cordon - they'll be the PVV to Hocke's FvD. The coalitions required to keep AfD out of government are just getting too weird and unstable for the status quo to continue indefinitely. At the same time, no one in their right mind will willingly coalition with a political movement as extreme as Hocke's faction, especially in a country like Germany where the shadow of history is especially heavy.

Right now if you're on the Right and not a neoliberal/libertarian (thus ruling out FDP), your only options (unless you're in Bavaria, where the FW are an option and where their CSU is a bit more right-wing thsn the CDU it substitutes for) are the CDU, which barely even makes a pretense of being right of center these days, and the AFD, which contains the single most extreme-right faction in western European politics. I don't see how this can (or should) hold.

The AfD has already split twice. Bernd Lucke left the party due to its rightward shift in 2015 and founded the center-right Liberal-Konservative Reformer, and in 2017 Frauke Petry left the party, claiming it had become ungovernable, and founded the national-conservative right-wing Die blaue Partei. Both parties died, and the AfD survives. This is because the central gravity of the party is Der Flügel and people who want a conservative party that isn't totally insane have one, it is called the CDU (which under Merz, is strongly right of center). Chrupalla and Weidel are not from this faction themselves, but they are unrecognizable right-wing compared to the vision of the founders of the AfD. The core of the party is the neo-fascist tendency, they are the strongest and they have come to dominate the party, those who aren't comfortable with them already left and are non-factors.

[JimJamUK]

It's both. The primary reason is that a larger percentage of the younger population is Muslim, but younger Muslims are also more likely to vote for DENK than older Muslims.

What’s the gender split like for Denk?

[Vosem]

Calvinist hellhole (Urk)
SGP 48.3% (-6.2)
PVV 25.8% (+12)
NSC 6.0% (new)
BBB 5.0% (+4.9)
CU 4.1% (-4)
CDA 3.7% (-4.1)
FvD 3.7% (-5.9)
VVD 0.9% (-0.8 )
GL-PvdA 0.7% (+0.2)

First time SGP under 50% here?

slow die-off of people, SGP are mostly people who vote for that their entire life.

I'm not sure whether the fun fact that the SGP is the party with the largest youth wing is still true (I distinctly recall that it was at the time of the 2012 election), but in general in the First World, in countries which have these hyper-Protestant subcultures, they're virtually always growing through differential fertility rates. SGP had an extra seat among the 18-35 demographic, in spite of obviously losing a substantial fraction of their normal base to the PVV surge.

[DavidB.]

It's both. The primary reason is that a larger percentage of the younger population is Muslim, but younger Muslims are also more likely to vote for DENK than older Muslims.

What’s the gender split like for Denk?

Haven't seen these statistics for this election yet, but in 2021 it was 60/40 male/female, I assume because Muslim men are more conservative and Muslim women vote for parties like D66/GL (Kauthar Bouchallikht?)/PvdA more often.

[H. Ross Peron]

It's both. The primary reason is that a larger percentage of the younger population is Muslim, but younger Muslims are also more likely to vote for DENK than older Muslims.

What’s the gender split like for Denk?

Haven't seen these statistics for this election yet, but in 2021 it was 60/40 male/female, I assume because Muslim men are more conservative and Muslim women vote for parties like D66/GL (Kauthar Bouchallikht?)/PvdA more often.

Is there a reason for the party doing better with younger Muslims? Is it sort of the same phenomenon where Muslims raised in less observant households become more observant?

[lfromnj]

Mvd says that there's a decent amount of DENK FVD swing voters actually.

[Flyersfan232]

off topic but is the king still flying commerical planes?

[DavidB.]

Is there a reason for the party doing better with younger Muslims? Is it sort of the same phenomenon where Muslims raised in less observant households become more observant?

My assumption is that older Muslims voters often have more of a 'don't rock the boat' attitude, which would make them prefer the option for which they usually voted (often PvdA). They are also often less informed about Dutch politics in general and don't always understand Dutch very well (their turnout is probably very low). They are also unlikely to see any of DENK's stuff on social media; like FVD, their outreach is really aimed at young people. Among those older Muslims who do vote, DENK should still do well, though.

Younger Muslims were born in the Netherlands and command the language either perfectly or at least well enough to understand what's going on. As a minority group whose identity stands out from the Dutch mainstream, they care about 'Muslim issues' and they don't mind DENK's more radical tone; in fact, many of them would probably be even more radical. They also see DENK's posts on social media.

Mvd says that there's a decent amount of DENK FVD swing voters actually.

This is true. DENK won them over this time because of the Israel/Gaza issue, which in hindsight was handled unintelligently by FVD by taking a point of view that pisses off pro-Israel PVV-FVD swing voters (many more nationalist right voters in the Netherlands care about being pro-Israel than in most other European countries; the video of Baudet calling Israel's attacks 'disproportionate' was happily retweeted by PVV candidates) but also doesn't quite convince voters who are virulently anti-Israel. Still, FVD have big potential here in elections to come.

Worth noting that the PVV won over some Muslims this time too. First I refused to believe it - the PVV has done well with non-native voters for a long time, but those were always non-Muslim immigrants. But I am seeing more and more evidence (in newspapers, in voxpops, on social media) that this time they won over some Muslim voters too. The reasoning would be quite similar to that of many native Dutch voters: they don't agree with everything he says, but the system is corrupt, Wilders stands for the people, there is too much poverty, and only Wilders wants to do things radically differently which is what the Netherlands needs now. The most radical things in his manifesto won't happen anyway.

Also worth noting that Wilders has been quite tame about Islam for a while. First-time voters don't remember the 2006-2015 era that well because they were children, which affects their perception of Wilders. In the nationally organized mock elections in high schools all over the country, PVV came first and FVD second.

And another thing I've seen in many comment sections on Muslim pages is that many are mostly happy Yesilgöz didn't win, who many seem to dislike more than Wilders - either because she's non-religious/right-wing/'anti-immigration' as an immigrant, or (by Turks) because she's Kurdish.

[DavidB.]

VVD prominents and former ministers Hans Hoogervorst and Halbe Zijlstra wrote an op-ed in de Telegraaf calling on their party to join a coalition with PVV, NSC and BBB. "VVD, do what's needed", they say, a wordplay on the VVD's election slogan earlier this year. Meanwhile, NSC leader Pieter Omtzigt gave an interview to de Volkskrant claiming all big parties should be ready to take responsibility.

[lfromnj]

Also worth noting that Wilders has been quite tame about Islam for a while. First-time voters don't remember the 2006-2015 era that well because they were children, which affects their perception of Wilders. In the nationally organized mock elections in high schools all over the country, PVV came first and FVD second.

Can you post the link to the mock elections?

[DavidB.]

Also worth noting that Wilders has been quite tame about Islam for a while. First-time voters don't remember the 2006-2015 era that well because they were children, which affects their perception of Wilders. In the nationally organized mock elections in high schools all over the country, PVV came first and FVD second.

Can you post the link to the mock elections?

https://stem.scholierenverkiezingen.nl/uitslagen
You can also check results per province, per municipality, per city/town/village and per school

[Aurelius2]

Also worth noting that Wilders has been quite tame about Islam for a while. First-time voters don't remember the 2006-2015 era that well because they were children, which affects their perception of Wilders. In the nationally organized mock elections in high schools all over the country, PVV came first and FVD second.

Can you post the link to the mock elections?

https://stem.scholierenverkiezingen.nl/uitslagen
You can also check results per province, per municipality, per city/town/village and per school

These are absolutely wild numbers. There were only 140,000 total votes countrywide, which seems very low. Did a lot of schools just not participate?

At least one of these three things is true:
1. only some schools participated
2. it was an opt-in thing for students and only a small fraction who actually care about politics bothered to participate
3. the young folks in the Netherlands are insanely right-wing compared to what you normally see from the youngs

[DavidB.]

These are absolutely wild numbers. There were only 140,000 total votes countrywide, which seems very low. Did a lot of schools just not participate?

At least one of these three things is true:
1. only some schools participated
2. it was an opt-in thing for students and only a small fraction who actually care about politics bothered to participate
3. the young folks in the Netherlands are insanely right-wing compared to what you normally see from the youngs

Now this is truly getting a little bit too detailed for me (not a school mock election psephologist) and it's also the last question I'm answering on this, but I'm sure the first one is true, not all schools participated; as for the second one it's probably not true that only those really interested in politics voted but voting was obviously also not mandatory; and as for the third one: could be, I guess? I have no idea, I'm not young anymore

[AtorBoltox]

I hate to turn every thread into an offshoot of the Israel one, but did the Palestinian marches (which I`m sure in the Netherlands as everywhere else were full of horrific anti-semitism) play any role in Wilder's victory? The polls show the PVV surging throughout October and November. If this is the case (which it might not be, I acknowledge) it surely calls into question the idea that the Palestinians are winning the global PR war