🇳🇱 Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: General Election (Nov 22)

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Just when you thought Dutch politics couldn't get anymore ridiculous. Amazing stuff.

Do you think BBB can be considered a CDA splinter?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Just when you thought Dutch politics couldn't get anymore ridiculous. Amazing stuff.

Do you think BBB can be considered a CDA splinter?

That's what they were until the CDA decided to cut off their arm. Now that the government gave them a wedge issue, an they have won seats off it, we will be able to see if they will adapt into a national force or collapse from poor structural foundations (FvD).

Dutch politics rarely gets boring...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Everyone's favorite Calvinist theocracy of Urk:
SGP 40.5% (+0.1)
BBB 29% (New)
CU 7.9% (-9.4)
PVV 6.6% (-6.4)
FVD 5.2% (-12.4)
CDA 4.4% (-4.1)
Localist 3.4% (New)

Every other party below 1%

I say this is a wonderful CDA performance (compared to Overijssel). At least they didn't lose a majority of their votes!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Roermond, Limburg

BBB
2.764
12,9%
0
0,0%
+12,9%.

CDA
2.337
10,9%
2.732
12,6%
−1,7%.

D66
2.310
10,8%
2.501
11,5%
−0,7%.

GROENLINKS
2.297
10,7%
2.822
13,0%
−2,3%.

ChristenUnie
2.222
10,4%
549
2,5%
+7,9%.

Interesting to see the vote so divided.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Wow, PVV takes a big hit as well due to the BBB surge.

At least they are still in the top eight. Isn't "big hit" a relative term too?
hallo CDA? Ben je daar? Hallo?
(Hello CDA? Are you there? Hello?)

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Wow, PVV takes a big hit as well due to the BBB surge.

At least they are still in the top eight. Isn't "big hit" a relative term too?
hallo CDA? Ben je daar? Hallo?
(Hello CDA? Are you there? Hello?)

A big hit relative to their pre-provincial election polling. Nearly halved.

That is certainly true. I guess I'm picking on the CDA here.
On a sidenote, why is GL gaining?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Any chance of PvdA going into government with BBB? They were able to do so at the regional elections despite the GL agreement, so could the same happen nationally?

Yes. People here will say I'm crazy, but so did they when I predicted such coalitions right after the PS election, and I turned out to be right. I think BBB+Omtzigt+PvdA+GL is not an impossible coalition, although more difficult nationally than provincially. If the VVD don't come first, they may want to be in opposition, and Omtzigt+CDA is actually going to be almost impossible. This means the numerical path to a right-wing government (VVD-BBB-CDA-PVV-JA21 or something along these lines) could be closed off, while the numerical path to a left-wing government will never even be there to begin with. PvdA-GL may be so big that they are too difficult to ignore, and in the end grand coalitions like these are also part of the Dutch tradition, with 2012 as both a recent and an infamous example.

But it's all very difficult to say, with so many unknowns surrounding the election. In Italy and France, people talk about different "republics" after a severe shakeup of the system. This is about the magnitude of the seismic shift that is going to happen in the Netherlands. This will be the final nail in the coffin of the system with the three people's parties CDA, PvdA and VVD dominating.

How similar is this election to, say, 2002?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Maybe good to do a write-up about the parties and their state for those new to this thread or to Dutch politics. The order is based on size after the 2021 general election.

The VVD historically represents one of the four traditional pillars in the Netherlands: the liberal/"general" pillar. It generally stands for right-wing liberalism, with a focus on free markets, business, security, law and order, international multilateralism/Atlanticism, and limited government involvement into people's lives. Usually, the VVD played second fiddle to the larger CDA and PvdA. It was a favorite government partner for the CDA to form center-right governments. In the 80s and early 90s, the party had a more liberal shift, which led to the formation of the two social democrat-led "purple" governments (PvdA-VVD-D66). After that, the pendulum swung right again and the VVD started to become tougher on both immigration and law and order. In 2010, Mark Rutte made the VVD the biggest party for the first time in its history and became Prime Minister - first with a right-wing government with CDA and outside support from PVV, then a centrist one with the PvdA, and then number three and number four with CDA, D66 and ChristenUnie. Over these years, it has been Rutte's misfortune that he had to compromise with more left-wing partners so much that the VVD has started looking like a cameleon. The VVD's liberal profile is heavily damaged - after 13 years in power, it has basically become the party of power and Rutte's personal vehicle, like German CDU under Merkel. It is his successor Dilan Yesilgöz-Zegerius' task to give the VVD a clear ideological profile again. The cause of the government collapse - immigration policy - will perhaps help her in solidifying the right-wing base, which has been unhappy with Rutte's compromises.

Democrats 66 (D66) is a socially liberal party that was founded to destroy a rusty, old, pillarized political system and radically democratize both politics and society. Its electoral performance looks like the movement of a jojo and can be explained by the mantra "governing means having" (which sounds better in Dutch: regeren is halveren). After the purple governments in the 90s and the following center-right government with CDA and VVD (2003-2006), the party had governed for too long and achieved too little in the way of democratization to still credibly serve its old purpose, although they were instrumental in passing some of the most socially liberal legislation regarding euthanasia and gay rights. They hit rock bottom with 3 seats in 2006, but new leader Alexander Pechtold managed to reinvent the party by dropping the old democratic "crown jewels" (referendum, elected mayor) and instead becoming the most vocal "anti-populist" party, in opposition to the PVV, who were riding high in the polls. The strategy paid off and led to more than a decade of electoral success, in 2019 culminating to 19 seats and government participation in Rutte-III (and the complete abandonment of their founding principles: it was a D66 Interior Minister who killed the short-lived referendum; to many Dutchmen, D66 nowadays look like the very embodiment of the establishment they were founded to fight). Rob Jetten and career-diplomat-turned-minister Sigrid Kaag built on Pechtold's legacy and made the savvy move to start taking incredibly polarizing stances on climate policy to profile themselves while in government. This led to 24 seats in the 2021 election - but the subsequent backlash in society (farmers' protests) and, later, in politics (BBB victory in provincial elections 2023) was considerable, and Kaag's approvals were tanking along with D66's virtual seat number. D66 tried everything to avoid a collapse of the government and, two weeks ago, agreed to a whole range of restrictions to asylum immigration, which would previously be unimaginable with them in the government. However, it did not help, and Sigrid Kaag is set to quit politics - officially over the massive amount of threats and hate she receives, which is difficult for her family (on TV, her daughters asked her to quit), but unofficially also because some wrong political calls and mishandling of internal scandals left her quite damaged too. Rob Jetten, a very savvy campaigner, is set to take over.

The PVV is a nationalist, populist party which has one member: Geert Wilders. Because of this unconventional structure, they are (he is) ineligible for government subsidies. He founded the party in 2006 and has led the party with a strong hand. What sets Wilders apart from similar parties in Europe is his specific, particularly vigorous animosity towards Islam as a religion. He lives under the strictest type of security regime and cannot even walk the street without an army of bodyguards. Wilders was originally a VVD MP but left the party over Turkey's potential accession to the EU. In 2009, he received his best result to date in the European election and was the talk of the town, and in 2010, he gained 24 seats in parliament. As a result, he provided confidence and supply to the most right-wing post-war government consisting of VVD and CDA. This government collapsed two years later, which left Wilders in the wilderness and also led him to radicalize, culminating in a speech in which he made his supporters chant they want "fewer, fewer, fewer Moroccans" in 2014. This did not prevent him from riding high in the polls during the migrant crisis and the PVV were set to win the 2017 general election two months in advance, but Wilders refused to campaign and eventually his numbers tanked. Because of his radicalization, times in which there were VVD-PVV swing voters were long gone, and there was even space between them - this void was first filled by FVD and later by a whole range of other right-wing parties, which now cause perpetual competition within the same voter pool - difficult for the PVV because they have no money. However, there are signs that the PVV slowly start to become coalitionable again: this happened provincially in Flevoland. Wilders has been rather moderate lately, without any unheard of statements regarding Islam, and has been outflanked on the right by FVD, looking moderate in comparison. If the VVD would be open to cooperating with the PVV again, this would greatly increase the PVV's electoral chances, currently hurt by the impression that voting PVV is a "lost vote" - so far, Yesilgöz has said nothing about the matter. Still, the PVV are expected to lose seats to the latest right-wing flash in the pan: BBB.

Which is a nice bridge to the CDA, full name Christian Democratic Appeal. This party (centrist, slight tilt to the right) is a merger of three "confessional" parties, belonging to the Catholic and Protestant pillars. These parties were the Netherlands' natural governing parties. When secularization set in, the merger of the three parties was an attempt not to lose power over the Netherlands. The CDA mentality could be captured by the infamous quote (in English) "We rule this country" and the merger was a success, leading to a revival of the CDA in the 1980s. Only in 1994 a government was formed without Christian Democrats, which lasted until 2002 and brought all sorts of social liberal changes. But from 2002 until 2010, the CDA became the largest party again under the leadership of Jan Peter Balkenende. After this, however, the party lost direction. It had a short revival under Sybrand Buma (19 seats in 2017, after a stint in opposition), who steered the party into a slightly more conservative direction, but has experienced massive personal and factional infighting ever since Buma's departure. The low point was most definitely the technically dubious leadership election (2020) between Hugo de Jonge and Pieter Omtzigt, De Jonge's subsequent departure due to tanking polls, Wopke Hoekstra taking over and Pieter Omtzigt being bullied out of the party right after the 2021 election. For this, for its lack of ideas, and for its lack of visibility in the Rutte-III and Rutte-IV governments, the CDA is set to receive a shellacking in the next general election. Party leader Hoekstra resigned and there is a massive exodus among members. Meanwhile, new party BBB is capturing the type of voters the CDA used to rely on, with Omtzigt potentially running too. The question is who wants to lead the CDA to the slaughterhouse - and quite frankly the question is also what added value the CDA still has. There are some potential lanes, but the CDA consistently refuses to pick one.

To be continued.

Thanks for the rundown. I look forward to more.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

If I'm doing my math correctly, as of right now there's nine hours until the exit poll.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Anyone want to predict who will top the exit poll?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Predicting PVV to be biggest party in exit poll.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Maybe not the most realistic for PVV to be excluded from government on these numbers.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Is CDA likely going into opposition?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Wilders' victory speech was interesting.
He used the word 'tsunami' to describe the results.
Fair enough.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Wilders' victory speech was interesting.
He used the word 'tsunami' to describe the results.
Fair enough.

As I heard it, he talked about stopping the "asylum tsunami". Not in relation to the results.

Ah. Thanks for correcting, I can't really comprehend Dutch on a high level and assumed he was talking about the election results.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

If I was Omtizgt I would probably feel that I would be the biggest loser from a snap election, right? Like, getting more seats than this might be hard, and there's more downside, likely...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

They interview someone from DENK and the party's supporters use it as an opportunity to have Palestinian flags take up 66% or more of the screen behind the interviewee. That's certainly on-brand lol

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The PVV vote in Beek, Limburg almost doubled. (16.3% to 31.7%)

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The pattern of the PVV vote doubling or almost doubling is broadly common in many areas.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

PVV finishes first in Rotterdam.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.partijgedrag.nl/partijgelijkenis.php
I found this interesting.