🇳🇱 Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: General Election (Nov 22)

[DavidB.]

BBB want a right-wing coalition with the SP in it. Pieter Omtzigt announced he will decide on his future in "a number of weeks".

SP is a socialist party (it´s literally their name). They are not going to be part of any economical right wing coalition.

I was just posting what Van der Plas said, live at NOS. Personally, I am not so sure the SP would not join a coalition with significantly more right-wing parties. In the last general election campaign, they didn't fully exclude the possibility of cooperating with the VVD. I think cooperating with the PVV would be a bridge too far for the SP, but VVD-BBB-CDA-JA21-SP with a moderate economic policy and a significant reduction of copayments in healthcare should be an option. BBB are not that neoliberal either.

[Earthling]

Well, it's hard to say where BBB stands any many issues because that is the great unknown. We will find out in coming weeks, I presume. But I could see them not being too right-wing on the economical issues.

But still. The SP is the most left wing party in parliament. The fact that they said they would be willing to work with the VVD says nothing.
Also, SP is not polling strong either. They will be destroyed if they enter such a coalition without one of the other left wing parties. Can't see that happening.

[PSOL]

The SP will perish by the next GE regardless, so the unprincipled wench will go where the money is.

[DavidB.]

Peil.nl pollster Maurice de Hond in March: BBB would stand to win 33 seats, if Omtzigt joins it'd be 53. If Omtzigt were to run alone, he'd win 38 seats with BBB at 17, so the parts are still bigger than the sum. Problem for them: good luck finding suitable candidates.
https://twitter.com/mauricedehond/status/1677571534313992192

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I think we could do without describing female politicians as prostitutes, on balance.

[jeron]

Peil.nl pollster Maurice de Hond: BBB would now stand to win 33 seats, if Omtzigt joins it'd be 53. If Omtzigt were to run alone, he'd win 38 seats with BBB at 17, so the parts are still bigger than the sum. Problem for them: good luck finding suitable candidates.
[

That is the old poll from March. In de hond's latest poll BBB is at 27 (and there are other polls which have them lower, at 23 or 24 and VVD as the largest party). BBB has of course been working on its party for the last couple of years. Omtzigt has not and he chose not to take part in the provincial elections and therefore has no seats in the senate.

[Estrella]

Omtzigt may be popular, but the fact he chose to spend two years sitting on his hands instead of building up a party doesn't inspire much confidence in his political skills – if he wants to stay in politics at all, that is.

[Zinneke]

Omtzigt may be popular, but the fact he chose to spend two years sitting on his hands instead of building up a party doesn't inspire much confidence in his political skills – if he wants to stay in politics at all, that is.

I'd argue the opposite, building up a party would be very risky.

[mileslunn]

With parties so divided how likely is it that there will be an actual government or will it be like Israel where have multiple elections before resolving it?  Likewise interested in how long it will likely take to form government?  I am guessing if election is in November it will take until at least spring of 2024 and possibly longer.  Does Netherlands have a time limit before they must go to a new election or is there any chance of breaking the record Belgium set at 583 days?

[Zinneke]

With parties so divided how likely is it that there will be an actual government or will it be like Israel where have multiple elections before resolving it?  Likewise interested in how long it will likely take to form government?  I am guessing if election is in November it will take until at least spring of 2024 and possibly longer.  Does Netherlands have a time limit before they must go to a new election or is there any chance of breaking the record Belgium set at 583 days?

No, the Netherlands has a much easier time forming governments than Belgium (and Israel) because people on opposite sides of the political spectrum still tend to be constructive in the Netherlands. It might have more to do with the socialisation aspect of the political class in the NL that generally isn't as polarised as the spectrum suggests. That BBB for example call for a government with SP or that JA21 would probably share a gov with a minor left wing party is indicative of the consensus-building model being strangely resilient despite fragmentation

Last time out only took long because of a very peculiar political scandal that made dealing with Rutte difficult for D66 especially but they caved in as they always do..

[jeron]

With parties so divided how likely is it that there will be an actual government or will it be like Israel where have multiple elections before resolving it?  Likewise interested in how long it will likely take to form government?  I am guessing if election is in November it will take until at least spring of 2024 and possibly longer.  Does Netherlands have a time limit before they must go to a new election or is there any chance of breaking the record Belgium set at 583 days?

With current polling it would be very difficult to form any kind of government. It would indeed take until spring at least but maybe longer. There is no time limit so it could take ages, but i don't the Belgian record will be broken. If VVD turns out to be the largest party again that would complicate things further (assuming Rutte is still its leader). That being said, a repeat election never happened before so i think in the end soms form of government will be formed.

[DavidB.]

That is the old poll from March. In de hond's latest poll BBB is at 27 (and there are other polls which have them lower, at 23 or 24 and VVD as the largest party).

You're right. Corrected. Still, I think the picture would be similar, although perhaps BBB have won some hypothetical votes from Omtzigt or vice versa.

To me, a scenario in which Omtzigt does not join BBB but starts his own party, splitting up the field, seems most likely. In this scenario, there are four serious contenders for biggest party: BBB, Omtzigt, VVD and GL/PvdA (not necessarily in this order). Behind those four, the field would be scattered spectacularly, with a ton of parties below 10 seats. There are too many parties with a massive problem.

Today, it was officially announced that GL and PvdA members will vote in a referendum on going into the election with one slate of candidates and one manifesto. Some speculation has also started about the name. I am praying that it will become something sensible like Red Green (the obvious choice, also the name of the movement within these two parties to merge) or, looking at history (the 70s, specifically), something like Progressive Agreement or Progressive People's Party. And I am dreading some type of marketing term - on Twitter, "SCL GRN", "LYNX" and "prgrss." were coined, which would be unbearable. To be continued...

Tomorrow, parliament will return from recess to debate the resignation of the government. Opposition parties have announced they will introduce a motion of no confidence against Rutte, which would force him to resign as demissionary Prime Minister. This would require at least one of D66, CDA and CU to support this. But if this happens, all of the VVD ministers will likely resign and the VVD can retaliate by voting out their former coalition partners' demissionary ministers too, as long as the opposition parties support such motions of no confidence as well. BBB leader Van der Plas has announced her support for this motion of no confidence as she "does not want Rutte to campaign on migration from the PM office". But in practice, I wonder whether this motion wouldn't make the campaign more VVD centered, and whether it wouldn't open the door for Rutte to act more oppositionally.

[JimJamUK]

Any chance of PvdA going into government with BBB? They were able to do so at the regional elections despite the GL agreement, so could the same happen nationally?

[DavidB.]

Any chance of PvdA going into government with BBB? They were able to do so at the regional elections despite the GL agreement, so could the same happen nationally?

Yes. People here will say I'm crazy, but so did they when I predicted such coalitions right after the PS election, and I turned out to be right. I think BBB+Omtzigt+PvdA+GL is not an impossible coalition, although more difficult nationally than provincially. If the VVD don't come first, they may want to be in opposition, and Omtzigt+CDA is actually going to be almost impossible. This means the numerical path to a right-wing government (VVD-BBB-CDA-PVV-JA21 or something along these lines) could be closed off, while the numerical path to a left-wing government will never even be there to begin with. PvdA-GL may be so big that they are too difficult to ignore, and in the end grand coalitions like these are also part of the Dutch tradition, with 2012 as both a recent and an infamous example.

But it's all very difficult to say, with so many unknowns surrounding the election. In Italy and France, people talk about different "republics" after a severe shakeup of the system. This is about the magnitude of the seismic shift that is going to happen in the Netherlands. This will be the final nail in the coffin of the system with the three people's parties CDA, PvdA and VVD dominating.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Any chance of PvdA going into government with BBB? They were able to do so at the regional elections despite the GL agreement, so could the same happen nationally?

Yes. People here will say I'm crazy, but so did they when I predicted such coalitions right after the PS election, and I turned out to be right. I think BBB+Omtzigt+PvdA+GL is not an impossible coalition, although more difficult nationally than provincially. If the VVD don't come first, they may want to be in opposition, and Omtzigt+CDA is actually going to be almost impossible. This means the numerical path to a right-wing government (VVD-BBB-CDA-PVV-JA21 or something along these lines) could be closed off, while the numerical path to a left-wing government will never even be there to begin with. PvdA-GL may be so big that they are too difficult to ignore, and in the end grand coalitions like these are also part of the Dutch tradition, with 2012 as both a recent and an infamous example.

But it's all very difficult to say, with so many unknowns surrounding the election. In Italy and France, people talk about different "republics" after a severe shakeup of the system. This is about the magnitude of the seismic shift that is going to happen in the Netherlands. This will be the final nail in the coffin of the system with the three people's parties CDA, PvdA and VVD dominating.

How similar is this election to, say, 2002?

[DavidB.]

Apparently things are moving quickly in The Hague and it looks like at least one of the coalition partners is willing to vote Rutte out (alongside, presumably, all of the opposition, perhaps minus SGP and JA21). This would change the dynamics of the election. On the one hand, Rutte cannot act "statesmanlike" by using the office to campaign, like he prefers to do. On the other hand, it would allow him to play the victim and point at his "left-wing" coalition partners for punishing him over being tough on immigration, enabling him to present himself as a champion of the right.

Another question would be: who replaces Rutte? In principle, this position would go to another VVD minister - Dilan Yesilgöz, Minister of Justice & Security (and responsible for the initial rounds of talks on immigration), would be the most obvious candidate. It would make her the first female Prime Minister and the first Prime Minister with a non-European foreign background, and it would also be a unique opportunity to see how the VVD could move on from the Rutte era. However, the VVD could also decide to leave the government altogether in support of party leader Rutte, leaving a rump government consisting of D66, CDA and CU with Prime Minister Sigrid Kaag (D66). This would certainly strengthen D66 vis-a-vis GroenLinks-PvdA and perhaps - ironically - help Rutte that way, as it could enable the VVD to sail past both of these parties in the election. The most hilariously twisted detail: Geert Wilders, Kaag's nemesis, could make her our new Prime Minister tomorrow evening.

[Zinneke]

Rutte isn't running.


Hoekstra neither but that is a given.

[Logical]

Amazing own goal from Teflon Mark. After 13 years his luck finally runs out.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Guess there goes the theories that he intentionally brought down the government to trigger a new election.

[Zinneke]

Guess there goes the theories that he intentionally brought down the government to trigger a new election.

No he just didn't bank on a potential no confidence vote in his own position I think, but also now what is up for grabs is that he wants to lead the "current affairs/demissionair" cabinet, presumably to extend his innings a bit more and fill a small gap between his potential EU or NATO gig.

There will still be a vite of confidence in his position submitted by PvdA/GL and Wilders has indicated he will back it.

[jeron]

Guess there goes the theories that he intentionally brought down the government to trigger a new election.

No he just didn't bank on a potential no confidence vote in his own position I think, but also now what is up for grabs is that he wants to lead the "current affairs/demissionair" cabinet, presumably to extend his innings a bit more and fill a small gap between his potential EU or NATO gig.

There will still be a vite of confidence in his position submitted by PvdA/GL and Wilders has indicated he will back it.

No. There will not be a bite of confidence

[Zinneke]

Guess there goes the theories that he intentionally brought down the government to trigger a new election.

No he just didn't bank on a potential no confidence vote in his own position I think, but also now what is up for grabs is that he wants to lead the "current affairs/demissionair" cabinet, presumably to extend his innings a bit more and fill a small gap between his potential EU or NATO gig.

There will still be a vite of confidence in his position submitted by PvdA/GL and Wilders has indicated he will back it.

No. There will not be a bite of confidence

Yep they changed their stance in the last hour though, both Klaver and Wilders had tweeted that Rutte needed to "go now*.

I wonder what made them change their stance? Sympathy points for Rutte being obvious?

[Mike88]

The end of an era in the Netherlands.

An EU job seems improbable for Rutte as Von der Leyen is expected to continue and the European Council Chair post is normally given to incumbent leaders. But, maybe President of the EU Parliament? The NATO leadership is also up for grabs next year, but not sure if the US will accept another European to the post.

[Zinneke]

Btw, for me Rutte's legacy and reason for longevity is that he's also a master dealmaker. Michael Ignatieff in an interview on the Alistair Campbell politics podcast said there were too many ideologues or even intellectuals in politics who fail because they are unable to drive deals through. Rutte IMO was a master at dealmaking and he ended coalitions too based on calculating that he could get better deals with other partners, as was the case here. He might be a serious loss to the EU Council for example because many recognised his know how in driving deals between actors in the Netherlands reflected his approach there despite his stubborn tone on the major issues. My comments on Dutch governments being easier to form than other very fragmented political scenes may turn out to go to dust if there isn't someone like him with such skills. Rutte was divisive towards the end of his term, and especially after the Omzigt debacle, but he maintained a solid dealmaking capability that is sorely missed in modern political society across the West. he'll do well in whatever diplogig he gets after this one, certainly better than people like Ardern, who while I agree more with politically, is hyped up by the liberal international crowd for a diplogig because she is marketable rather than competent.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

RIP HP