🇳🇱 Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: General Election (Nov 22)

[DavidB.]

Coalition formation

According to 'sources', coalition investigator Plasterk will recommend to start PVV-VVD-NSC-BBB coalition talks and to start these talks with clearing three potential stumbling blocs between the parties:

1) The "rule of law" - specifically NSC's issues with parts of the PVV election manifesto, such as a ban on Islamic schools and leaving the European Union. Even if you could find the latter undesirable (as most people in the Netherlands probably do) I don't see why that would be 'unconstitutional', but it was always clear that this would have to be discussed to make things work. VVD and BBB also want to discuss this with the PVV.

2) The themes and priorities the parties want to focus on: are they close to each other or too far apart?

3) What kind of type of government would it be? A technocratic government with distance from parliament (NSC's preference), a minority government (VVD's preference) or a traditional majority government (PVV, BBB preference)?

Only when these three potential stumbling blocs are cleared, talks about the substance of the new government's policy would start. Of course, the process could fail at every stage. At the same time, the fact that there is no obvious alternative to this combination probably helps its chances to succeed.

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Results per polling station in Amsterdam can be found here. Amsterdam is much more boring to describe than The Hague and Rotterdam, because within the A10 (ring road) most of the city is quite a monolith in terms of demographics and gave 37-50% to GL-PvdA (note that 37% was their extreme high point in The Hague and sort of the lower end in central Amsterdam - the Republic of Amsterdam indeed). Exceptions: the rich South votes VVD, DENK do well in the Muslim parts of the West, the PVV do well farther out West (and also, but still behind the VVD, farther out south in Buitenveldert, the most Jewish part of the country; but at the same time the PVV barely got more than they did in 2010; they were at the national average there in 2010, now 8 points below it). North is a mixed bag; whiter, poorer areas vote PVV (sometimes with 35%), but there are also poor, non-gentrified, more non-native Dutch parts and whiter gentrified parts (roughly in the middle, alongside the metro line). The Southeast, which has a large black population, is also very much of a mixed bag, with GL-PvdA leading but a lot of parties (including PVV and CU) getting a non-small amount of votes.

Due to the size of the GL-PvdA lead the map is annoying to read, so I'd suggest switching from "grootste partij" to "opkomst" (turnout). You can also use maps for different elections to compare.

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Campaign spending

Total spending on ads for the election campaign was €13.2 million. But the big election winners PVV and NSC spent almost nothing: the PVV (37 seats, +20) used only €4500 (on one social media ad), while NSC (20 seats, +20) spent literally nothing.

The VVD was the biggest spender with €3.6 million - almost all on the super orange ad with Dilan Yesilgöz standing "on your side" -, followed by GL-PvdA with €3 million and D66 with €2.9 million.

€11 million went to offline ads, €2.3 million to online ads. Both are lower than in 2021, when parties spent €17.7 million in total: €14.6 to offline ads and €3.1 million to online ads. The difference is probably mostly due to the fact that parties' war chest was completely full after a regular term of 4 years in 2021.

[DavidB.]

This deserves its own post: the pearl of pearls is ready. This is the countrywide election map per polling station.

[Flyersfan232]

Speaker of the Parliament Vera Bergkamp (D66) did not stand for re-election, so one of the first tasks of the newly elected Parliament will be to elect a new speaker. This has proven to be a difficult job over the last years. The investigation into the conduct of former Speaker Khadija Arib (PvdA) being the low point, but there was also much controversy about the limits to freedom of speech in Parliament. According to an adopted note by Parliament, the Speaker has to have 15 competences, among which "solid parliamentary experience", ability to "act with authority", ability to "cooperate well with the parliamentary organization", "standing above the parties", and "management skills".

There is talk about three candidates.

- Roelien Kamminga (VVD) was just elected temporary Speaker and has some experience as Deputy Speaker. But she has only been an MP for 2 years and the speaker of the Senate also comes from the VVD.

- Martin Bosma (PVV), on the other hand, doesn't lack experience: he has been an MP for 17 years now and has much experience as Deputy Speaker. He is well-liked across the parliament, as he has proven to lead debates with authority and humor, and he does not give PVV MPs any privileges. He tried to run for Speaker twice before, but apart from the fact that the PVV doesn't (didn't?) have many friends in parliament, the representative function of the Speaker internationally plus Bosma never disavowing Wilders' "fake parliament" comments from long ago were used as arguments to disqualify him. Additionally, the PVV recently (but before the election) supported an amendment stating that the Speaker always has to come from the opposition. Now that a government with the PVV doesn't seem unlikely anymore, this could be used as an argument against him. Bosma isn't certain to be in the race yet.

- Tom van der Lee (GL-PvdA) already declared his candidacy. He has been in parliament since 2017 - until this year for GL - and has also served as Deputy Speaker. But with the current right-wing configuration of the parliament, electing a GL-PvdA Speaker - who held very political top jobs in GL (head of communications, advisor to former party leaders Femke Halsema and Paul Rosenmöller) before entering parliament - seems a little counterintuitive.

VVD and NSC being the center of the parliament probably means Kamminga should be favored if she makes it to the runoff, but it could get interesting.

and D66/Volt voters who wanted GL/PVDA to be above PVV coming back home, I'd guess?

Exactly.

why isnt the pvv a political party?

[DavidB.]

Lilian Marijnissen has resigned as SP leader and as Member of Parliament. She writes that based on the disappointing election results (plural, i.e. not just this one, but also the six previous ones - she lost seats in all of them), there is a feeling within the party that a new leader is needed, and that she wants to step aside.

As far as I know, there is no clear heir apparent - I suppose Sandra Beckerman could be her most likely successor? But understanding the SP's internal workings is sometimes quite difficult. Edit: Now also reading about Jimmy Dijk being mentioned.

https://twitter.com/MarijnissenL/status/1733462238793552297?s=20

For the second time at the start of a new term, the Parliament asked all MPs to present their favorite songs. Responses can be found here, including Spotify list.

[MABA 2020]

Apparently, he can play guitar as well.

Naturally one of his most famous songs being Immigrant Song

[Logical]

For the second time at the start of a new term, the Parliament asked all MPs to present their favorite songs. Responses can be found here, including Spotify list.

All three SGP MPs listing psalms or hymns sung by the Urk's men choir is extremely on brand.

[DavidB.]

For the second time at the start of a new term, the Parliament asked all MPs to present their favorite songs. Responses can be found here, including Spotify list.

All three SGP MPs listing psalms or hymns sung by the Urk's men choir is extremely on brand.

Indeed. For me, the best gem is PVV MP Maikel Boon choosing Ik spring voor NAC ("I jump for NAC"), referring to his football club NAC Breda.

[xelas81]

For the second time at the start of a new term, the Parliament asked all MPs to present their favorite songs. Responses can be found here, including Spotify list.

All three SGP MPs listing psalms or hymns sung by the Urk's men choir is extremely on brand.

Also BBB MPs choosing Huntin’, Fishin’ And Lovin' Every Day and Thank God I'm A Country Boy.

[DavidB.]

Speaker of the Parliament Vera Bergkamp (D66) did not stand for re-election, so one of the first tasks of the newly elected Parliament will be to elect a new speaker. This has proven to be a difficult job over the last years. The investigation into the conduct of former Speaker Khadija Arib (PvdA) being the low point, but there was also much controversy about the limits to freedom of speech in Parliament. According to an adopted note by Parliament, the Speaker has to have 15 competences, among which "solid parliamentary experience", ability to "act with authority", ability to "cooperate well with the parliamentary organization", "standing above the parties", and "management skills".

There is talk about three candidates.

- Roelien Kamminga (VVD) was just elected temporary Speaker and has some experience as Deputy Speaker. But she has only been an MP for 2 years and the speaker of the Senate also comes from the VVD.

- Martin Bosma (PVV), on the other hand, doesn't lack experience: he has been an MP for 17 years now and has much experience as Deputy Speaker. He is well-liked across the parliament, as he has proven to lead debates with authority and humor, and he does not give PVV MPs any privileges. He tried to run for Speaker twice before, but apart from the fact that the PVV doesn't (didn't?) have many friends in parliament, the representative function of the Speaker internationally plus Bosma never disavowing Wilders' "fake parliament" comments from long ago were used as arguments to disqualify him. Additionally, the PVV recently (but before the election) supported an amendment stating that the Speaker always has to come from the opposition. Now that a government with the PVV doesn't seem unlikely anymore, this could be used as an argument against him. Bosma isn't certain to be in the race yet.

- Tom van der Lee (GL-PvdA) already declared his candidacy. He has been in parliament since 2017 - until this year for GL - and has also served as Deputy Speaker. But with the current right-wing configuration of the parliament, electing a GL-PvdA Speaker - who held very political top jobs in GL (head of communications, advisor to former party leaders Femke Halsema and Paul Rosenmöller) before entering parliament - seems a little counterintuitive.

VVD and NSC being the center of the parliament probably means Kamminga should be favored if she makes it to the runoff, but it could get interesting.

Bosma is in and Kamminga is out, which means it's between Bosma and Van der Lee. In this case I think Bosma should be favored to win.

[DavidB.]

Some interesting developments in Dutch politics.

- Lilian Marijnissen is succeeded by Jimmy Dijk as parliamentary group leader of the SP. Dijk has been an MP since April and is from a working-class family in Northern Groningen. On the Groningen city council he was known for his direct and temperamentful debating style.

A wind of change in Dutch parliament:

- PVV, VVD, NSC and BBB are already teaming up together. Today, they passed a motion introduced by all four parties to inform the European Council that the Netherlands will negotiate for an opt-out on asylum and immigration if the Treaties of the European Union are renegotiated (which the European Parliament wants).

The four leaders of PVV, VVD, NSC and BBB also introduced a motion calling upon both the government and the Senate to 'pause' the introduction of the controversial law that would force municipalities to take in asylum seekers. This law already passed the lower house before the election and is now awaiting a debate and a vote in the Senate. This was the law that the VVD was responsible for introducing and opposed during the election campaign, and now has MPs voting to put it on hold who are also in the demissionary government which hasn't retracted the law and hopes it will still pass in the Senate. It is highly unusual for the lower house to also call upon the upper house (not) to do something.

In addition, the four parties passed a motion by Geert Wilders to restart the parliamentary inquiry on the handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, which had been put on hold. Before the election, the establishment parties had little appetite in reopening the debate; now, this will happen.

- But a left-wing motion to scrap copayments for healthcare (in 2024 set to be €385 per person per year) was also adopted: PVV and BBB voted along with the left and gave the motion a majority. It is unclear what will happen next.

- Supporting Ukraine is not that controversial in Parliament, but the source of the funding for the EU Ukraine Facility is. A number of parties are unhappy with the fact that the EU Multiannual Financial Framework 'creates' new money (i.e. will be amended to spend more) rather than to acquire the funds for Ukraine somewhere else within the existing budget. But when parties wanted to introduce a motion to require the government not to agree with this on the Council, demissionary PM Mark Rutte immediately said that even if the motion would pass, he would not do what the motion asked for. He said they would then have to replace him with someone else by adopting a motion of no confidence against him, which, according to Rutte, would trigger the entire demissionary government to resign. This one goes in the 'NATO job application' file.

Seldom has a new majority in parliament shown its different colors and its wishes to change policy so quickly. I'd say that on all of these issues this is probably a turn towards the wishes of the majority of the electorate.

[JimJamUK]

- But a left-wing motion to scrap copayments for healthcare (in 2024 set to be €385 per person per year) was also adopted: PVV and BBB voted along with the left and gave the motion a majority. It is unclear what will happen next.

What was the specific party breakdown of this vote (I only ask because ‘left’ can be a pretty debatable label in The Netherlands)?

[DavidB.]

- But a left-wing motion to scrap copayments for healthcare (in 2024 set to be €385 per person per year) was also adopted: PVV and BBB voted along with the left and gave the motion a majority. It is unclear what will happen next.

What was the specific party breakdown of this vote (I only ask because ‘left’ can be a pretty debatable label in The Netherlands)?

PVV, GL-PvdA, BBB, SP, DENK and PvdD in favor = 80 seats. All others against. Motion introduced by SP and PvdD.

[jeron]

- But a left-wing motion to scrap copayments for healthcare (in 2024 set to be €385 per person per year) was also adopted: PVV and BBB voted along with the left and gave the motion a majority. It is unclear what will happen next.

What was the specific party breakdown of this vote (I only ask because ‘left’ can be a pretty debatable label in The Netherlands)?

PVV, GL-PvdA, BBB, SP, DENK and PvdD in favor = 80 seats. All others against. Motion introduced by SP and PvdD.

 It was a leftwing motion because it was proposed by SP.
It probably won't happen any time soon because
a) the existing coalition of VVD-D66-CDA-CU did not support it and the current government will not bring forward a proposal
b) current negotiating parties VVD and NSC do not support it
c) the motion did not in any way specify how it will be paid for
d) another more conrecte motion to put forward a proposal in spring 2024 was defeated because GL-PvdA voted against.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1735341087470801040?t=xJr6Y0DM9peQD2s_US...

[DavidB.]

Martin Bosma (PVV) has just been elected Speaker of the Parliament. He received 75 votes out of 146 votes cast, Van der Lee (GL-PvdA) received 66, the remainder went to MPs who hadn't declared themselves candidates. Another breakthrough moment for the PVV and painful for the left.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1735341087470801040?t=xJr6Y0DM9peQD2s_US...

Yes!

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1735341087470801040?t=xJr6Y0DM9peQD2s_US...

Definitely seems like right wing consolidation (everyone wants to be behind the winner of course) plus left-liberal voters who wanted to just put GLPVDA over the top are going back to their preferred parties.

[CumbrianLefty]

Martin Bosma (PVV) has just been elected Speaker of the Parliament. He received 75 votes out of 146 votes cast, Van der Lee (GL-PvdA) received 66, the remainder went to MPs who hadn't declared themselves candidates. Another breakthrough moment for the PVV and painful for the left.

The new speaker has a history of dubious comments about AS and WW2.

But yeah, "owned the libs"

[MaxQue]

Martin Bosma (PVV) has just been elected Speaker of the Parliament. He received 75 votes out of 146 votes cast, Van der Lee (GL-PvdA) received 66, the remainder went to MPs who hadn't declared themselves candidates. Another breakthrough moment for the PVV and painful for the left.

The new speaker has a history of dubious comments about AS and WW2.

But yeah, "owned the libs"

You know what they say, scratch a liberal and it bleeds brown.

[DavidB.]

Today's Ipsos poll has the PVV at 47 seats, an all-time high for Wilders.

https://twitter.com/opiniepanel/status/1737080630020595816?s=46

[Umengus]

Today's Ipsos poll has the PVV at 47 seats, an all-time high for Wilders.

https://twitter.com/opiniepanel/status/1737080630020595816?s=46

people want Wilders like PM.

[Estrella]

A bit off topic, but why were Dutch governments so unstable in the 50s and 60s? If my counting is right, there were 14 cabinets in the twenty-eight years from the end of the war until 1973 and 17 cabinets in the fifty years from 1973 until today. Was it just that KVP, ARP and CHU were separate and more parties = more instability, or were there some other issues?

[jeron]

A bit off topic, but why were Dutch governments so unstable in the 50s and 60s? If my counting is right, there were 14 cabinets in the twenty-eight years from the end of the war until 1973 and 17 cabinets in the fifty years from 1973 until today. Was it just that KVP, ARP and CHU were separate and more parties = more instability, or were there some other issues?

They weren't as unstable as they might seem. Some of these governments were only there to prepare elections. Which was the case for the first government (Schermerhorn-Drees) that was formed without prior elections

[oldtimer]

Today's Ipsos poll has the PVV at 47 seats, an all-time high for Wilders.

https://twitter.com/opiniepanel/status/1737080630020595816?s=46

It's getting to a point where Wilders might decide for a new election, or force the others to give concessions to avoid one.

On the new numbers he can drop one of VVD, NSC, BBB from his coalition.

[crals]

Such a blatantly opportunistic maneuver so soon after an election would almost certainly backfire. That newfound support for Wilders is very soft.