🇳🇱 Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: General Election (Nov 22)

[DavidB.]

Maurice de Hond is the king of the exit polls on all sorts of subjects. The first one: party vote by sex and age. The PVV performed particularly strong among women (27%) and age groups 35-44 (33%) and 55-64 (31%). The VVD used to perform quite similarly across all age groups, but suddenly have an age pattern like the UK Tories do (although less 65+ heavy). GL-PvdA performed particularly well among age group 25-34. The age cohort 18-24 voted a lot more right-wing than the cohort 25-34.



Below, we have party vote by education level (from left to right in the table: high, middle, low) and household income (from left to right in the table: below average, average, between once and twice the average, twice the average, more than twice the average). The PVV did very well among voters with an an average to lower education level and an average to lower income. They really blew away the competition in both "average" groups which explains the size of the victory.

GL-PvdA did absolutely awful with people with an average or lower education level and performed best with voters who have twice the average income (lol).

NSC do rather well in people across every category, but better with lower educated voters and people with lower incomes.

The effect between education level and left/right vote is extremely strong.



The below table shows whether people worry about their financial situation (from left to right: yes and no) and whether changes in the world provide increasing opportunities, pose increasing threats, or whether there is a balance between the two. A rather damning statistic here is that only 33% among those with financial worries voted for the left, compared to 41% among those without those worries. Not surprisingly, a PVV vote is heavily correlated with financial worries and with associating change with threats.



Party vote and religion. Note that the effect here is more indirect rather than direct. The PVV do well in the South and there absolutely are reasons for this that are rooted in the South's Catholicism and subsequent depillarization, but there is no direct role. Similarly, NSC do well with Protestants in the East and the North but the effect is also likely to be more indirect.



Vote by profession. From left to right: entrepreneur who employs workers, self-employed, employee private sector, employee public sector, unable to work, umemployed/looking for work/on welfare, pensioner, studying/still in school.

No real surprises here but note the high PVV percentages across the board.



Party vote by sector of employment. From left to right: healthcare, education, national government otherwise, IT, agriculture, manufacturing, hotels/restaurants/bars/tourism, other service jobs, other sector, not working, pensioner.

The 57/30 right/left split among those in manufacturing stands out.



Another interesting one: smoking! From left to right: never smoked, used to smoke but not anymore, sometimes, frequently.

No clear party correlation except for the PVV and, less so, the SP.



Party vote and COVID-19 vaccination. From left to right: not vaccinated, only the primary vaccination series (i.e. once J&J or twice any of the others), primary+one booster, primary+two boosters, more than that.

Here we see one of the reasons why FVD has problems winning over voters: they're too much viewed as the antivax party among a population that is 85%> vaccinated. The PVV do worse with people who were vaccinated very often but it's likely partly correlated with age (PVV do worse with 65+ voters). VVD and GL-PvdA voters are less likely not to be vaccinated; among the most boosted voters D66 stands out.



Media consumption! From left to right: right-wing Telegraaf, liberal Volkskrant, liberal/elitist NRC, Het Parool (Amsterdam), Trouw (leftish Protestant), AD (catch-all, least clear political signature), Financieel Dagblad (you get the gist), regional newspaper, foreign newspaper, none.



Social media use. Would expect to see much more of an age effect here, particularly for TikTok.

 

Supermarket! In which supermarket do you do most of your groceries? Painful for the left that Aldi, of all supermarket chains, attracts the most right-wing voters and the least left-wing (specifically GL-PvdA!) voters. Aldi and Lidl customers are likely to be the poorest on average. Albert Heijn, on the other hand, has the reputation of being the most "premium" (but at the same time the most quintessentially Dutch) chain. Jumbo is the 'average Joe' chain.



Which kind of car do you drive? Sometimes pretty strong correlation here:




Turns out there is no correlation between your vote and using Android or iPhone use or which telecommunications company you have a contract with:



More here but I think this was quite enough for here.

One final take for this evening, in the category 'LAB lose Blyth Valley and countless similar seats, gain Putney':

"In 2012, the PvdA won EVERY municipality on the mainland north of Heerenveen and Emmen... and none between Amsterdam, Utrecht and Apeldoorn.

This year, GL-PvdA only won three of those northern municipalities... but they did win [rich suburbs and commuter towns] Utrechtse Heuvelrug, Zeist, De Bilt, Bunnik and [city doing well] Amersfoort."

https://twitter.com/almodozo/status/1727762682160320576?s=20

[Oryxslayer]

"In 2012, the PvdA won EVERY municipality on the mainland north of Heerenveen and Emmen... and none between Amsterdam, Utrecht and Apeldoorn.

This year, GL-PvdA only won three of those northern municipalities... but they did win [rich suburbs and commuter towns] Utrechtse Heuvelrug, Zeist, De Bilt, Bunnik and [city doing well] Amersfoort."

https://twitter.com/almodozo/status/1727762682160320576?s=20

I mean if this is meant as a question, the answer is right in front of everyone: GL-PvdA.

The two parties have opposite coalitions. GL is younger, educated, PvdA's electorate was older, more in keeping with continental Social Democratic parties and their pensioners. Both parties brought something to the table when they merged, both lost something. But the GL side was where they could gain voters, notably cause the electorate that has bounced between Left Parties in recent elections is high-educated and know where a vote should go.

Also it doesn't help that a bunch of the old PvdA electorate is dead now because they were already old when they voted in 2010 and 2012. But I think another large chunk of their former voters just will never forgive them for Rutte II. Forgiveness does not come easy in fragmented proportional systems, where it's easier to empower a new party than come around to the old.

We talk a lot about the "Same Story" heard in many places these days, especially formerly industrial ones. But with generational turnover actually now taking place for the old unionized pensioners, we can increasingly see differences in how countries political systems have adapted or filled the vacuum. The Dutch system presently just doesn't favor tactics seen elsewhere, collapse into reformation around a new ticket is seemingly more natural. It has come for the CDA, PvdA, and probably in a short time, one of the PVV or VVD.

[DavidB.]

No, it was not a question. It was a factual statement by this guy on Twitter (who is a left-winger) about the changing electoral coalition of the PvdA. I do not dispute the fact that the voters GL-PvdA could (and did) most easily gain were left-wing swing voters who are prone to vote for the most successful center-left option in every election. But we also saw how far GL-PvdA got with that: they only won 25 seats, many of those from tactical voters - hardly a ringing endorsement. A left-wing party should be doing better than that. A proper left-wing party should be winning over voters who have financial worries, who are more practically educated, who make less money than the average, who are worried about the future, and who indeed shop at Aldi. The fact that D66 did not win over these voters in 2021 was to be expected. But the PvdA is - or at least should be - on this earth to represent exactly these citizens and their interests. And if the PvdA's merger with GL is causing these voters to walk away (or stay away), maybe the PvdA should rethink this cooperation and rethink its political positions rather than double down on them.

[JimJamUK]

No, it was not a question. It was a factual statement by this guy on Twitter (who is a left-winger) about the changing electoral coalition of the PvdA. I do not dispute the fact that the voters GL-PvdA could (and did) most easily gain were left-wing swing voters who are prone to vote for the most successful center-left option in every election. But we also saw how far GL-PvdA got with that: they only won 25 seats. A left-wing party should be doing better than that. A proper left-wing party should be winning over voters who have financial worries, who are more practically educated, who make less money than the average, who are worried about the future, and who indeed shop at Aldi. The fact that D66 did not win over these voters in 2021 was to be expected. But the PvdA is - or at least should be - on this earth to represent exactly these citizens and their interests. And if the PvdA's merger with GL is causing these voters to walk away, maybe the PvdA should rethink this cooperation and rethink its political positions rather than double down on them.

If for no other reason than the fact the current strategy cannot get them into government, as the overall Parliament was simply too right wing and their voters opposed to having ‘progressive’ parties in government once again. The left needs to grow its vote share, as well as becoming less toxic to middle of the road voters who might not vote for it but would punish a right of centre party that went into coalition with them.

[Zinneke]

No, it was not a question. It was a factual statement by this guy on Twitter (who is a left-winger) about the changing electoral coalition of the PvdA. I do not dispute the fact that the voters GL-PvdA could (and did) most easily gain were left-wing swing voters who are prone to vote for the most successful center-left option in every election. But we also saw how far GL-PvdA got with that: they only won 25 seats. A left-wing party should be doing better than that. A proper left-wing party should be winning over voters who have financial worries, who are more practically educated, who make less money than the average, who are worried about the future, and who indeed shop at Aldi. The fact that D66 did not win over these voters in 2021 was to be expected. But the PvdA is - or at least should be - on this earth to represent exactly these citizens and their interests. And if the PvdA's merger with GL is causing these voters to walk away, maybe the PvdA should rethink this cooperation and rethink its political positions rather than double down on them.

If for no other reason than the fact the current strategy cannot get them into government, as the overall Parliament was simply too right wing and their voters opposed to having ‘progressive’ parties in government once again. The left needs to grow its vote share, as well as becoming less toxic to middle of the road voters who might not vote for it but would punish a right of centre party that went into coalition with them.

Yes but think of the mandates!!! /S

The left should sit out the next coalition and say to the Dutch Right that they won and thus it's up to them to form a coalition. Since Rutte I pretty much every year there has been some excuse of a right-wing dominated coalition actually being left-wing because a progressive party is a junior coalition partner.

More importantly I just cannot understand the strategy of doing a merger in such an electoral system and political context, but nor can I understand the political pathway Timmermans took. He was always going to get attacked domestically for his role as a Commissioner with a portfolio that can be immensely difficult to handle. Pre-Brusselized Timmermans at the head of the PvdA could have put on his Roda JC scarf and do his "Im from the Parkstad ya know" act and run an at least aesthetically Danish social democrat + defense of peripheral Netherlands campaign that could siphon votes from Omzigt and BBB, while letting GL run up the vote in the city centres. The moment he took up that portfolio in the Commission he should have put a cross to his political ambitions domestically. had he got the top Commission job or more realistically a foreign affairs gig he would have won some "experienced statesmen" points. But coming from his portfolio in the dull mediatic landscape of the EU bubble into the mudpit of Dutch electoral debates with a seasoned Wilders ready to rumble made him look as rusty as the factories in his home town.

[Oryxslayer]

No, it was not a question. It was a factual statement by this guy on Twitter (who is a left-winger) about the changing electoral coalition of the PvdA. I do not dispute the fact that the voters GL-PvdA could (and did) most easily gain were left-wing swing voters who are prone to vote for the most successful center-left option in every election. But we also saw how far GL-PvdA got with that: they only won 25 seats. A left-wing party should be doing better than that. A proper left-wing party should be winning over voters who have financial worries, who are more practically educated, who make less money than the average, who are worried about the future, and who indeed shop at Aldi. The fact that D66 did not win over these voters in 2021 was to be expected. But the PvdA is - or at least should be - on this earth to represent exactly these citizens and their interests. And if the PvdA's merger with GL is causing these voters to walk away, maybe the PvdA should rethink this cooperation and rethink its political positions rather than double down on them.

If for no other reason than the fact the current strategy cannot get them into government, as the overall Parliament was simply too right wing and their voters opposed to having ‘progressive’ parties in government once again. The left needs to grow its vote share, as well as becoming less toxic to middle of the road voters who might not vote for it but would punish a right of centre party that went into coalition with them.

Yes but think of the mandates!!! /S

The left should sit out the next coalition and say to the Dutch Right that they won and thus it's up to them to form a coalition. Since Rutte I pretty much every year there has been some excuse of a right-wing dominated coalition actually being left-wing because a progressive party is a junior coalition partner.

More importantly I just cannot understand the strategy of doing a merger in such an electoral system and political context, but nor can I understand the political pathway Timmermans took. He was always going to get attacked domestically for his role as a Commissioner with a portfolio that can be immensely difficult to handle. Pre-Brusselized Timmermans at the head of the PvdA could have put on his Roda JC scarf and do his "Im from the Parkstad ya know" act and run an at least aesthetically Danish social democrat + defense of peripheral Netherlands campaign that could siphon votes from Omzigt and BBB, while letting GL run up the vote in the city centres. The moment he took up that portfolio in the Commission he should have put a cross to his political ambitions domestically. had he got the top Commission job or more realistically a foreign affairs gig he would have won some "experienced statesmen" points. But coming from his portfolio in the dull mediatic landscape of the EU bubble into the mudpit of Dutch electoral debates with a seasoned Wilders ready to rumble made him look as rusty as the factories in his home town.

We should not forget that more than the PVV winning this election, this was an election where  Omtzigt and the NSC snatched defeat from the jaws of victory. And they did so in a stupendous fashion. The biggest inditement of Timmermans therefore in my opinion is when Omtzigt fumbled the bag, a bunch of the right-aligned voters (who probably were already primed by the BBB...) bolted to the party they saw with the best electoral and ideological prospects. The left-aligned voters however mostly stayed, even though the narrative in the final days was of a fading NSC and a PVV/GL-PvdA top two.

[DL]

According to that demographic analysis it looks like the Netherlands is one of the very few countries in the industrialized world where women voted more for the right than did men. Any explanation for that?

[Vosem]

Does Maurice de Hon also have numbers for some of the smaller parties? I'd love to see a link to the data (even if it's in Dutch, I'll figure it out; even if it's behind a paywall I can break through it).

The thing that jumps out at me is that of the parties large enough to be included in your tables, three have their greatest support among older voters and decline the younger their electorate gets (VVD, NSC, and SP); if NSC is mostly poaching CDA genepool voters, well, the CDA genepool remains quite old. VVD and NSC are going to be fine -- they still have support among the youngest voters, even if there is less -- but SP declines to literally 0%.

Only one party actually has the reverse pattern of greatest strength among younger voters: CU. Another sign, like with the SGP, that younger voters are surprisingly religious? Denk is not included in your numbers but it's fairly obvious this would also apply to them, and I'm curious regarding FvD (and for that matter SGP itself).

Women preferring BBB pretty strongly makes some sense to me (now that I think about it, it feels perfectly attuned to be a far-right party with appeal mostly to women), but I'm surprised that'd be true for PVV. Similarly, mostly men voting D66 doesn't surprise me (there is some part of me that wants to vote for the party most opposed to fighting the drug war and I suspect if I lived in the Netherlands it would be stronger -- and I probably would be a local-level D66 voter -- but it makes sense to me that this is a masculine feeling), but I'm surprised more men than women vote GL/PvdA. Environmental politics in general strikes me as skewing female -- why is their electorate so masculine? (Has the Netherlands avoided the general global trend where over time women have become more educated than men?)

With education by far the clearest trends are that a more educated voter is likelier to support VVD and a less educated voter is likelier to support SP; everything else is more qualified. It makes sense to me, honestly, that D66 follows mostly the VVD pattern but sees a small boost with the least educated voters; I feel like I can imagine who those people are.

[wnwnwn]

According to that demographic analysis it looks like the Netherlands is one of the very few countries in the industrialized world where women voted more for the right than did men. Any explanation for that?

Isn't PVV a 'protect LGTB from muslim violence' type of right wing party?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There's a famous joke in Yes Minister about how if you accept a job at the European Commission, then your political career at home is over and that you'll have to start your own party if you want to come back. This, of course, was a very specific joke at the expense of Roy Jenkins, but the general principle...

[SunSt0rm]

Omzigt just informed that he is currently not ready to negotiate with PVV yet. He states that The PVV's election manifesto contains positions that are contrary to the Constitution. The NSC leader has proposed appointing an informant who will look along the lines of content of the big issues

[Logical]

There's a famous joke in Yes Minister about how if you accept a job at the European Commission, then your political career at home is over and that you'll have to start your own party if you want to come back. This, of course, was a very specific joke at the expense of Roy Jenkins, but the general principle...

"Skill issue"
-Donald Tusk

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

Yes I am aware that the Council and the Commission are different things but your average Joe would not know the difference

 

[DavidB.]

Does Maurice de Hon also have numbers for some of the smaller parties? I'd love to see a link to the data (even if it's in Dutch, I'll figure it out; even if it's behind a paywall I can break through it).

No, I sent the link to everything in my previous post. I suppose the sample for the smaller parties is too small to draw meaningful conclusions.

Denk is not included in your numbers but it's fairly obvious this would also apply to them, and I'm curious regarding FvD (and for that matter SGP itself).

FVD had a young voter base in 2021 when ending the COVID lockdown was their main issue, but I doubt that is still the case. Judging by pictures and videos, their audience at events looks quite old now. I tend to trust De Hond's statistics on this one - i.e. they get 2% across virtually all age categories. Higher among high school kids perhaps but they can't vote.

Women preferring BBB pretty strongly makes some sense to me (now that I think about it, it feels perfectly attuned to be a far-right party with appeal mostly to women), but I'm surprised that'd be true for PVV. Similarly, mostly men voting D66 doesn't surprise me (there is some part of me that wants to vote for the party most opposed to fighting the drug war and I suspect if I lived in the Netherlands it would be stronger -- and I probably would be a local-level D66 voter -- but it makes sense to me that this is a masculine feeling), but I'm surprised more men than women vote GL/PvdA. Environmental politics in general strikes me as skewing female -- why is their electorate so masculine? (Has the Netherlands avoided the general global trend where over time women have become more educated than men?)

GL has always had a more female base and the PvdA a slightly more male one or a balanced one, so I guess we'll have to wait for further studies to prove whether De Hond's statistics are true in the first place, and if so, what could be behind it. First, I suspected it could be the case that similar female voters would go PvdD leaving the GL-PvdA electorate more male, but De Hond's own statistics don't show such an effect for the PvdD. The same goes for the surprising overperformance of the PVV among women. The Netherlands follows the international trend of women being more highly educated so that cannot be the reason.

I would dispute your classification of BBB as a far-right party. Even the "the PopuList" classifies it as a borderline case.

(there is some part of me that wants to vote for the party most opposed to fighting the drug war and I suspect if I lived in the Netherlands it would be stronger

What drug war? Except for maybe Portugal (but I don't know much about it...) I don't think there is any country in Europe as lenient to drug users as the Netherlands. The police doesn't go after them at all. The only 'war' is against the types of crime that completely overwhelm entire communities, the type of crime that causes politicians and lawyers and crime reporters to require permanent security - and the police are losing it. There is no quick fix for that.

In any case, this is national policy so local D66 branches can't do anything about it. The only thing they can do is support local 'coffee shops'.

[mileslunn]

According to that demographic analysis it looks like the Netherlands is one of the very few countries in the industrialized world where women voted more for the right than did men. Any explanation for that?

Gender gaps tend to be small in Europe even though men usually a bit more right wing but usually within Margin of error.  US & Canada are outliers with how big gender gap is just as UK & Ireland are outliers on age gap (young very left, old quite conservative).  I've generally found non-Anglosphere countries don't show age and gender gaps to same degree and instead social class, job, even religion play bigger role.

[DavidB.]

Omzigt just informed that he is currently not ready to negotiate with PVV yet. He states that The PVV's election manifesto contains positions that are contrary to the Constitution. The NSC leader has proposed appointing an informant who will look along the lines of content of the big issues

Omtzigt's letter can be read here. On the one hand, I read a lot of "not yets" and "currently..."s, which means NSC's opposition to the PVV's participation is qualified and not permanent. On the other hand, they demand a lot from the PVV - but that was to be expected.

[Pericles]

Hopefully PM Timmermans is at least being considered. The Netherlands would have to pay a huge price to uphold a dumb convention that the first placed party gets to govern.

[DavidB.]

Hopefully PM Timmermans is at least being considered. The Netherlands would have to pay a huge price to uphold a dumb convention that the first placed party gets to govern.

This seems impossible. Not (just) because of the idea that the first place party gets to govern, but also (and mostly) because it would be political suicide for VVD and NSC. 79% of VVD voters and 78% of NSC voters find the only remotely possible option with GL-PvdA (i.e. GLPvdA-VVD-NSC-D66) unacceptable while 84% of VVD voters and 81% of NSC voters find PVV-VVD-NSC-BBB acceptable. Pressure on VVD and NSC to enter a right-wing coalition is massive and if they don't, a new election would still be more likely than any Timmermans-led government.

[DL]

Hopefully PM Timmermans is at least being considered. The Netherlands would have to pay a huge price to uphold a dumb convention that the first placed party gets to govern.

The first place party only gets the first "crack" at trying to form a coalition - they don't always succeed. There was an election back in the 70s when the PvdA was the largest party - but then the CDA and VVD formed a coalition without them them and they were stuck in oppoition.

[Pericles]

Hopefully PM Timmermans is at least being considered. The Netherlands would have to pay a huge price to uphold a dumb convention that the first placed party gets to govern.

This seems impossible. Not (just) because of the idea that the first place party gets to govern, but also (and mostly) because it would be political suicide for VVD and NSC. 79% of VVD voters and 78% of NSC voters find the only remotely possible option with GL-PvdA (i.e. GLPvdA-VVD-NSC-D66) unacceptable while 84% of VVD voters and 81% of NSC voters find PVV-VVD-NSC-BBB acceptable. Pressure on VVD and NSC to enter a right-wing coalition is massive and if they don't, a new election would still be more likely than any Timmermans-led government.

And the VVD coming third rules Yesilgoz out of being PM, even though it was just by one seat? Wonder if the conversation would be any different if they'd done slightly better.

[DavidB.]

And the VVD coming third rules Yesilgoz out of being PM, even though it was just by one seat? Wonder if the conversation would be any different if they'd done slightly better.

I don't think Yesilgöz becoming PM is completely ruled out, but a compromise candidate would be a more logical option. Her becoming PM would have been slightly more likely if the VVD had come second indeed, although with such a big distance to the PVV I suppose a compromise candidate would still have been the most likely option in case coalition talks for a right-wing government succeed.

[Intell]

According to that demographic analysis it looks like the Netherlands is one of the very few countries in the industrialized world where women voted more for the right than did men. Any explanation for that?

Gender gaps tend to be small in Europe even though men usually a bit more right wing but usually within Margin of error.  US & Canada are outliers with how big gender gap is just as UK & Ireland are outliers on age gap (young very left, old quite conservative).  I've generally found non-Anglosphere countries don't show age and gender gaps to same degree and instead social class, job, even religion play bigger role.

Sweedn has a large gender gap amongst the youth.

[DavidB.]

Deputy Minister for Culture and Media Gunay Uslu (D66) has resigned to become CEO of Corendon, a company selling all-inclusive holidays and cheap flights to holiday destinations 🌞🌞

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Deputy Minister for Culture and Media Gunay Uslu (D66) has resigned to become CEO of Corendon, a company selling all-inclusive holidays and cheap flights to holiday destinations 🌞🌞

Should be added the airline is a family business founded by her brother Atilay Uslu, and she previously served in their management from 1997 to 1999 and from 2014 to 2020.

[jeron]

Hopefully PM Timmermans is at least being considered. The Netherlands would have to pay a huge price to uphold a dumb convention that the first placed party gets to govern.

The first place party only gets the first "crack" at trying to form a coalition - they don't always succeed. There was an election back in the 70s when the PvdA was the largest party - but then the CDA and VVD formed a coalition without them them and they were stuck in oppoition.

It happened in 1977 and 1982

[jeron]

Omzigt just informed that he is currently not ready to negotiate with PVV yet. He states that The PVV's election manifesto contains positions that are contrary to the Constitution. The NSC leader has proposed appointing an informant who will look along the lines of content of the big issues

Wilders reacted by accusing him of playing games and today Wilders reposted a letter written by a far right commentator in which Omtzigt was described as "sneaky Catholic" and "he thinks he is God".