🇳🇱 Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: General Election (Nov 22)

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Is it possible that a decent chunk of the larger DENK vote among young people is from pro-Palestinian white leftists?

[adma]

These are absolutely wild numbers. There were only 140,000 total votes countrywide, which seems very low. Did a lot of schools just not participate?

At least one of these three things is true:
1. only some schools participated
2. it was an opt-in thing for students and only a small fraction who actually care about politics bothered to participate
3. the young folks in the Netherlands are insanely right-wing compared to what you normally see from the youngs

Now this is truly getting a little bit too detailed for me (not a school mock election psephologist) and it's also the last question I'm answering on this, but I'm sure the first one is true, not all schools participated; as for the second one it's probably not true that only those really interested in politics voted but voting was obviously also not mandatory; and as for the third one: could be, I guess? I have no idea, I'm not young anymore

My feeling is, young people have much less natural engagement to the civic sphere than their elders, having been conditioned in an environment where gaming and electronic social media have been far more dominant.  And that kind of environment breeds a greater tendency t/w the "identitarian", with little room for grey area or nuance.  And unfortunately, the far right does good "identitarian"--perhaps in part because at lot of the time, that realm itself operates on a stunted, juvenile level that younger people can identify with (which is a key to their "get 'em while they're young" outreach)

[DavidB.]

Is it possible that a decent chunk of the larger DENK vote among young people is from pro-Palestinian white leftists?

Haven't seen any evidence for this yet and I don't think it's likely. DENK are too far away from these voters culturally, but particularly on LGBT messaging. They are more likely to be among the 40k or so BIJ1 voters, or to have voted PvdD (whose leader Ouwehand defended 'from the river to the sea') or GL-PvdA (for instance for Bouchallikht). The group that would choose purely based on this issue is probably fairly small too.

I hate to turn every thread into an offshoot of the Israel one, but did the Palestinian marches (which I`m sure in the Netherlands as everywhere else were full of horrific anti-semitism) play any role in Wilder's victory? The polls show the PVV surging throughout October and November. If this is the case (which it might not be, I acknowledge) it surely calls into question the idea that the Palestinians are winning the global PR war

Yes, I think we can conclude that the protests have helped Wilders to a certain degree. In the Netherlands there were massive rallies in the big cities, but also as 'sit-ins' on train stations - in other words, the genocidal slogan 'from the river to the sea...' was chanted in the exact locations where more than 100,000 Dutch Jews were sent to their deaths 80 years ago. When asked whether the war in Israel plays a role in their choice, most voters (except for DENK voters) say no. But this isn't the war in Israel. This is tied to immigration, integration, identity and security in the Netherlands - and one pundit said "to the moral future of our nation". I am obviously very biased on this subject, so I'll refer to some pundits - left, center and right - who say what I say.

Haagse Insider, centrist, pro-EU, possibly affiliated to the left of the CDA:
"It was briefly after October 7th that it became clear the war in Gaza would become an enormous issue. Not directly, but because it gave the theme "Islam", "terrorism", "identity" and hence "immigration" even more power. Public polls have missed this."

https://twitter.com/HaagseInsider/status/1727538856310804531?s=20

Martin Sommer, former Volkskrant journalist, now EW columnist, centrist:
"Personally, I think the events in Israel were decisive for the result, particularly the pro-Palestinian protests in the Netherlands. Cowardly public officials failed to act against antisemitism, and were just as painstakingly silent about the relation between Jew-hatred and half a century of immigration. In Soldier of Orange, the Netherlands is the righteous country in which people shouted loudly: "Never again". Whether this [view] corresponded with reality does not matter. This is about the shocking rupture [between this and] what we see in front of us, on the streets and at our universities. Is this who we are?"

Telegraaf reporter Wierd Duk (right-wing) discussed this issue countless times before the election already, and claimed Wilders was rising but it wasn't picked up by the media. On Nov 16, he wrote: "I am speaking with people who would never vote for Wilders before, but who will do so this time. Because of the virulent antisemitism by anti-Western activists in our streets. Their eyes were opened after October 7th, they say."

And on Nov 18: "Guys, October 7th changed everything for an enormous number of voters. I read it, I hear it, I notice it. It opened people's eyes. But our political leaders strangely don't understand this yet. The Hague bubbles."

Zihni Özdil, left-wing, former GL MP, tweeted this on election night (his account is now set on private but I follow him and can still copy it):
"Wilders should send the Dutch Hamas apologists of the last weeks some flowers. Their campaign, even at train stations during the commemoration of Kristallnacht, won him at least 10 more seats."

And the VVD noticed it too. In de Telegraaf, on the day after, an anonymous VVD staffer said: "We had a Minister of Justice who also could have done something for once against those pro-Palestinian protests though the entire country... We lost touch with society a while ago already." I fully expected Yesilgöz to act on it and it only would have helped her in the campaign. It is astounding she didn't do it.

Some aspects are crucial here:
- Netherlands is still one of the most pro-Jewish countries in Western Europe. This is partly due to the fact that the Netherlands was the Western European country where the biggest percentage of Jews was killed in the Holocaust.
- You can accuse Wilders of all sorts of things, but not of antisemitism. Even left-wingers won't do this. Unlike parties like Rassemblement National, Vlaams Belang and the Sweden Democrats, the PVV is not rooted in anything that has an ideological continuation with anything related to WWII. This matters because it credibly gives Wilders some sort of moral highground when he rejects antisemitism. He also didn't even have to talk about it a lot - people already know where he stands on the issue.
- The moral intensity of this issue is big enough to 'overcome' other issues regarding Wilders. When you see antisemitism on our streets go unchallenged, that is something so extreme that Wilders (particularly in its current version of Milders) is not extreme in comparison. And actually, maybe someone a little radical would be needed to tackle this problem.

In the end, I think the issue a) steered the debate from social security back towards immigration and the demographic future of the country, where the PVV have issue ownership, b) hurt the left by being associated with radicals, including in GL-PvdA's own ranks, c) hurt the VVD by being indecisive and highlighting their inability to tackle issues like these over the last 13 years, and d) showed a situation that is so radical that maybe something radical is also needed to stop it.

[Oryxslayer]

All this talk about DENK and nobody noticed the PVV coalition scout resigned after only days on the job?

[DavidB.]

All this talk about DENK and nobody noticed the PVV coalition scout resigned after only days on the job?

Yes, over fraud allegations against Van Strien of which Wilders wasn't aware. Bad start and it highlights the major issues the PVV will have in finding qualified people for top jobs, especially if they actually enter the government.

I wouldn't be surprised if someone outside the PVV like former SGP leader and outgoing MP Kees van der Staaij enters the picture as new investigator (although his 'distance to daily politics', a requirement to become investigator, may be too small as someone who is still an MP for two more weeks).

[AtorBoltox]

-snip-

Thank you for this great reply. I won't clog up too much of this thread with discussion about Gaza, but I wonder if the participants of these marches, at least in the Netherlands, are now starting to realise how catastrophically counterproductive they've actually been for their cause

[DavidB.]

Thank you for this great reply. I won't clog up too much of this thread with discussion about Gaza, but I wonder if the participants of these marches, at least in the Netherlands, are now starting to realise how catastrophically counterproductive they've actually been for their cause

Absolutely not, no self-awareness there. They (well, not many Muslims, mostly white leftists) are now protesting the election results. In some of the big cities, GL-PvdA organized it but tried to make it look like it wasn't theirs. "A Clintonian level of condescension combined with a Trumpian lack of respect for democratic outcomes", a pundit said.

[CumbrianLefty]

All this talk about DENK and nobody noticed the PVV coalition scout resigned after only days on the job?

Yes, over fraud allegations against Van Strien of which Wilders wasn't aware. Bad start and it highlights the major issues the PVV will have in finding qualified people for top jobs, especially if they actually enter the government.

This sort of thing has done for populist right parties before, so watch this space.

[DavidB.]

Geert Wilders will propose prof. Ronald Plasterk (PvdA) as new coalition investigator. Plasterk, who has a PhD in molecular genetics, was Minister of Education (Balkenende IV, 2007-2010), MP (2010-2012), and Minister of Interior Affairs (Rutte II, 2012-2017). Now, he is a "special professor" at the University of Amsterdam and columnist for De Telegraaf, in which he regularly criticizes the PvdA and the left on issues such as immigration, climate, and 'wokeness' and for turning their back on the working class. Always interesting when PvdA ministers from the Rutte II government arrive at this conclusion, but Plasterk does seem suitable for the job. To be clear, Plasterk's appointment is not an attempt to form a coalition with GL-PvdA, which is impossible. The only option seems to be PVV-VVD-NSC-BBB.

[RGM2609]

Given that BBB doesn't seem to be needed, what would be the upside in adding them in? Majority in the Senate?

[DavidB.]

Given that BBB doesn't seem to be needed, what would be the upside in adding them in? Majority in the Senate?

Exactly, although even with them they don't have a majority.

[RGM2609]

Given that BBB doesn't seem to be needed, what would be the upside in adding them in? Majority in the Senate?

Exactly, although even with them they don't have a majority.

Right. Other than BBB, who is likely to cooperate with the new government in the Senate?

[DavidB.]

Given that BBB doesn't seem to be needed, what would be the upside in adding them in? Majority in the Senate?

Exactly, although even with them they don't have a majority.

Right. Other than BBB, who is likely to cooperate with the new government in the Senate?

JA21 (3), SGP (2) and FVD (2) are likely to vote along with anything that has a right-wing signature (the former two more reliably so than the last), which would bring this hypothetical government to 37 out of 75 seats. Then, they would have to fight hard to get Martin van Rooijen (50Plus) on board.

[Vosem]

How much power does the Senate have? Is it just a chamber of review, like the British House of Lords or Spanish Senate, or does it have the power to actually block legislation?

[DavidB.]

How much power does the Senate have? Is it just a chamber of review, like the British House of Lords or Spanish Senate, or does it have the power to actually block legislation?

No, it's almost as powerful as the lower house - the only rights it doesn't have are the right of amendment and the right of initiative (but it can propose a so-called "novelle" instead of an amendment, which should the be introduced by the government; however, this requires passage though the lower house again) and increasingly willing to take up that political role, despite the fact that it "should" mostly look at feasibility and coherence as a chambre de réflexion. Some of the most notable laws that passed the lower house but were shot down by the Senate in the last couple of years were the PvdD initiative to ban (religious: kosher and halal) slaughter without pre-stunning and a Rutte II government initiative that would limit the free choice of medical doctors - the latter because then coalition partner PvdA refused to support it, as Senators are supposed to do their work independently and are not bound by any coalition agreement. Rutte's governments were mostly able to do their work without majorities in the Senate, but he was a master at wheeling and dealing. Any government led by the PVV is likely to have a more difficult time.

[RGM2609]

Is CDA not a potential partner in the Senate?

[DavidB.]

Is CDA not a potential partner in the Senate?

For some initiatives, perhaps. But when crafting a coalition agreement the hypothetical right-wing government would definitely not be able to count on them like they could count on JA21 and the SGP. The CDA should be expected to criticize such a government from the left, particularly under Bontenbal.

[Continential]

Under a PVV led government, would Wilders be PM or could the PM be from the coalition parties?

[DavidB.]

Winner per polling station in Rotterdam. Center and gentrified areas close to it go GL-PvdA, Muslim-plurality/majority areas in Crooswijk, Rotterdam West and Rotterdam South go DENK, rich areas in Hillegersberg (North) and Kralingen (East) go VVD, working-class areas with lower numbers of Muslims (big parts of South, Hoogvliet, Rozenburg) and lower middle-class (Prins-Alexander) areas go PVV, sometimes with absolutely massive margins; middle-class newly built neighborhood Nesselande (outer Northeast) is split between PVV and VVD.

Under a PVV led government, would Wilders be PM or could the PM be from the coalition parties?

It remains to be seen. I still think a compromise candidate is the likeliest option as I expect VVD and NSC to take the point of view that Wilders is too controversial to represent the Netherlands internationally.

[Red Wall]

What are the odds some of the minor parties like FvD, PvdD, JA21, Volt and even CU ceasing to exist?

[Logical]

What are the odds some of the minor parties like FvD, PvdD, JA21, Volt and even CU ceasing to exist?

All very unlikely except JA21. The key to surving in Dutch politics is carving out a niche for yourselves and not having internal conflicts. All these minor parties have niches where single issue and testimonial voters can park their votes. They will never win more than 10 seats but the 1-5% of the vote they get is enough to survive indefinitely. JA21's problem is how their niche issues overlaps heavily with FvD and PVV and their serious internal conflicts.

[Zinneke]

It's a shame because of the 3 right wing populist parties JA21 seemed to have the more nuanced/achievable ideas to tackle the issues the right wing populist electorate care about. Wilders will whine about being excluded but he explicitly said that dual nationals shouldn't be allowed to be ministers and then is surprised Yesilgoz rules out government? You reap what you sow.

[Logical]

One final seat change from foreign ballots. D66 +1 SP - 1. JA21 survives the threshold with about 1000 votes to spare.

[DavidB.]

One final seat change from foreign ballots. D66 +1 SP - 1.

I am still reading conflicting reports about this on Twitter, but absolutely brutal news for the SP if they truly end up with only 4 seats and lose 5.

69,545 voters voted from abroad, a turnout percentage of almost 65% compared to those who registered (but unlike for Dutch residents in the Netherlands, registration is not automatic for Dutch residents abroad). GL-PvdA won them with 28.6%, less than I expected - probably due to less tactical voting. Over 14% voted at embassies or consulates. Full results for voters abroad here.

JA21's problem is how their niche issues overlaps heavily with FvD and PVV and their serious internal conflicts.

JA21's niche overlaps with VVD and PVV. It doesn't overlap with FVD anymore - these are two different pools of voters now. There are JA21-PVV swing voters and PVV-FVD swing voters, but I cannot imagine an FVD-JA21 swing voter anymore, just like VVD-FVD swing voters don't exist anymore.

[Tintrlvr]

Calvinist hellhole (Urk)
SGP 48.3% (-6.2)
PVV 25.8% (+12)
NSC 6.0% (new)
BBB 5.0% (+4.9)
CU 4.1% (-4)
CDA 3.7% (-4.1)
FvD 3.7% (-5.9)
VVD 0.9% (-0.8 )
GL-PvdA 0.7% (+0.2)

First time SGP under 50% here?

slow die-off of people, SGP are mostly people who vote for that their entire life.

I'm not sure whether the fun fact that the SGP is the party with the largest youth wing is still true (I distinctly recall that it was at the time of the 2012 election), but in general in the First World, in countries which have these hyper-Protestant subcultures, they're virtually always growing through differential fertility rates. SGP had an extra seat among the 18-35 demographic, in spite of obviously losing a substantial fraction of their normal base to the PVV surge.

I agree but I also think the young voters born into SGP families are more likely to vote for "mainstream" far-right parties than their parents such that SGP's future could still be limited.