🇳🇱 Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: General Election (Nov 22)

[Cassius]

Any more clarity as to which party will come second/third/fourth?

GL-PvdA will probably pip VVD for second thanks to Utrecht, but it will be close. Not a particularly impressive night for the former and a pretty disastrous one for the wider liberal-left (if we include D66 in this category).

[Mike88]

45.9% counted (4,7 million ballots)

22.5% PVV (+12.1)
15.2% GL-PvdA (+4.3)
14.5% VVD (-6.7)
12.3% NSC (new)
  5.9% D66 (-9.0)
  4.7% BBB (+3.6)
  3.3% CDA (-6.1)
  3.0% SP (-2.8 )
  2.6% SGP (nc)
  2.5% DENK (+0.2)
  2.2% PVdD (-1.7)
  2.2% FvD (-2.6)
  2.2% CU (-1.4)
  1.6% Volt (-0.8 )
  0.7% JA21 (-1.7)
  0.5% BIJ1 (-0.6)

[Aurelius2]

Seems to me now that the exit poll projection of 50+ getting a seat is getting less and less likely to occur in reality....

aaaaand the exit poll got adjusted with their seat going to PVV

The impossible dream coalition of PVV+VVD+BBB+SGP+JA21 inches ever closer, yet it won't come close enough. Shame FvD had to go off the deep end - if they were an acceptable coalition partner a strictly right-wing coalition with no need for centrist parties might just barely be possible depending on what happens from here.

[Double Carpet]

Why does it take them so long to count votes in the Netherlands? In Germany the votes would almost all be counted within an or two of the polls closing

I think part of it must be the sheer size of the ballot papers, they are MASSIVE - the size of a bath towel pretty much.

If anywhere has bigger ballots, I'd like to see them.

[Oryxslayer]

How much of an option is GL/PvdA/VVD/NSC/D66? It is mathematically a majority but it feels difficult to imagine VVD joining a 5-party coalition where they would be the furthest-right party.

At the end of the day, everything seemingly is going to come down to Omtzigt and the NSC. Reminder that CDA is not going into any government at the moment.

The Extreme-Right option without NSC: PVV + VVD + BBB + FvD + CU + SGP + JA21. 76 seats right now, and obviously not every party would be in the cabinet. But this not only seems doomed to collapse after the EU elections, but also one wonders if parties like the VVD or CU would have issue with their supposed partners like FvD. Or if the minor parties would even want into government.

I think it's fairly clear the what was once the BBB's plan of trying to include SP in a populist government won't be happening as long as the VVD is needed.

So we have PVV+VVD+NSC, or GL/PvdA+VVD+NSC+Someone else. D66, despite their lackluster result, seem primed to be coerced into blocking the PVV for that alternative option. But which option depends on Omtzigt. And he will either have to break his principles against the PVV, or resolve his personal issues with certain memebers of GL/PvdA.

[DavidB.]

Seems to me now that the exit poll projection of 50+ getting a seat is getting less and less likely to occur in reality....

aaaaand the exit poll got adjusted with their seat going to PVV

And not just that. BBB lose another one and go to 5, FVD gain one and get 4 in this prognosis.

You misunderstand. I'm trying to express surprise at GL-PvdA seemingly appearing to be doing better among the urban/suburban areas and making most of their gains there, rather than places with a established PvdA base.

Ah. This is probably because the older, less urban working class PvdA base views GL-PvdA as too much GL and too little PvdA, and may not like Timmermans.

[Aurelius2]

The Extreme-Right option without NSC: PVV + VVD + BBB + FvD + CU + SGP + JA21. 76 seats right now, and obviously not every party would be in the cabinet. But this not only seems doomed to collapse after the EU elections, but also one wonders if parties like the VVD or CU would have issue with their supposed partners like FvD. Or if the minor parties would even want into government.

CU will not be willing to be in a coalition with PVV, and absolutely nobody other than PVV and maybe a few minor parties would be willing to be in a coalition with FvD. This also presupposes that FvD is interested in governing, which they are not.

[Aurelius2]

Hypothetically, what happens if a party wins more seats than the number of candidates they named on their list?

[Oryxslayer]

The Extreme-Right option without NSC: PVV + VVD + BBB + FvD + CU + SGP + JA21. 76 seats right now, and obviously not every party would be in the cabinet. But this not only seems doomed to collapse after the EU elections, but also one wonders if parties like the VVD or CU would have issue with their supposed partners like FvD. Or if the minor parties would even want into government.

CU will not be willing to be in a coalition with PVV, and absolutely nobody other than PVV and maybe a few minor parties would be willing to be in a coalition with FvD. This also presupposes that FvD is interested in governing, which they are not.

Exactly. I'm trying to explain all the options to basically make it clear that Omtzigt decides the government coalition (or new elections). And he either has to break his opposition to the PVV, come to terms personally with Timmermans and GL, or break his principle as a parliamentarian and say new elections.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Seems the PVV may outperform the exit poll by a few seats.

[RGM2609]

Do you think that the cordon sanitaire was so broken that Wilders would have won a direct election against a leftist like Timmermans?

[Logical]

Nijmegen (Havana on the Waal)
Turnout : 78.4% (-1.8 )

GL-PvdA 34.9% (+14.9)
PVV 14.2% (+6.5)
D66 10.5% (-12.7)
VVD 9.9% (-4.3)
NSC 9.2% (new)
PvdD 4.3% (-1.8 )
SP 3.9% (-3.1)
Volt 3.6% (-1.5)
CDA 1.9% (-2.9)
Denk 1.7% (-0.1)
FvD 1.5% (-1.7)
BBB 1.2% (+1.1)

[DavidB.]

Do you think that the cordon sanitaire was so broken that Wilders would have won a direct election against a leftist like Timmermans?

I think we got the answer this evening. There was no real cordon sanitaire though. A cordon sanitaire means all parties exclude another one. This was just an exclusion by the VVD and all parties to their left, which de facto shut the PVV out. But a party like BBB (let alone FVD or JA21) never excluded the PVV and they have been in government in Flevoland since earlier this year too (in addition to earlier iterations in Limburg).

[Oryxslayer]

Nijmegen (Havana on the Waal)
Turnout : 78.4% (-1.8 )

And Utrechtt



Remaining urban areas (all but not limited by the list should be good for PvdA-GL compared to the nation to varying degrees:

Leeuwarden, Zwolle,  Apeldoorn, Arnhem, Breda, Tilburg, Eindhoven, Haarlem, Amersfoort, Leiden

[Oryxslayer]

Do you think that the cordon sanitaire was so broken that Wilders would have won a direct election against a leftist like Timmermans?

I think we got the answer this evening. There was no real cordon sanitaire though. A cordon sanitaire means all parties exclude another one. This was just an exclusion by the VVD and all parties to their left, which de facto shut the PVV out. But a party like BBB (let alone FVD or JA21) never excluded the PVV and they have been in government in Flevoland since earlier this year too (in addition to earlier iterations in Limburg).

And the VVD in part excluded them cause of a bad aftertaste from when the PVV were supporting their government from the outside from 2010 to 2012. There's no doubt in my mind that even if GL-PvdA did better tonight and came on top, a straight presidential contest between Timmermans and Wilders would be a Wilders win. Cause Timmermans is less popular. Comparatively, versus Omtzigt he would lose for the same reasons.

[It’s so Joever]

That’s it, between this and Florida I now endorse accelerating climate change. Let’s make these refugee haters refugees themselves!

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/PaulDepla/status/1727499342427173167?t=hDdWOQbLFXkhOrzIcaQla...
VVD win Breda by just under a point.

[Oryxslayer]

Exit polls readjusted, BBB+1, PVV+1. D66 - 1, FvD - 1.

[Aurelius2]

The latest projections have the right-wing dream coalition (PVV+VVD+BBB+SGP+JA21) at a combined 72 seats, up from 70 at the initial exit polls, but still 4 short of a majority. I do not see them closing that gap.

[It’s so Joever]

The latest projections have the right-wing dream coalition (PVV+VVD+BBB+SGP+JA21) at a combined 72 seats, up from 70 at the initial exit polls, but still 4 short of a majority. I do not see them closing that gap.

Indeed. In this absolutely terrible scenario, there is a legitimate concern of the Netherlands being more Russophilic. Whatever they do with migrants is up to them sadly, but my hope is that these communist-right parties don’t actively sabotage Dutch support for NATO and Ukraine.

[RGM2609]

"Communist-right"... Well, that's a new one.

[DavidB.]

With 94% of the vote in, De Hond and the GeenStijl team have the following final prognosis of the night:

PVV 38
GL-PvdA 25
VVD 24
NSC 21
D66 9
BBB 7
CDA 5
SP 4
DENK 3
PvdD 3
FVD 3
SGP 3
ChristenUnie 3
Volt 2
JA21 0
All others 0

JA21 are just below the threshold, it will depend on a few hundred votes. Getting flashbacks from the Israeli New Right party with about the same position in their political system being in the same position.

The GeenStijl crew are calling it a night now and so do I.

[It’s so Joever]

"Communist-right"... Well, that's a new one.

I have long said on here that modern day “right wingers” are either stupid or accelerationist communists. In the case of some of the alt right (especially in Europe but also here), they are not even accelerationist, basically echoing Maoist rhetoric and talking points.

[Oryxslayer]

Well, it ends as it begins, with all eyes on Omtzigt. Only this time he can only damage the rosy image that voters have of him by compromising his principles with some other party, whereas previously he could only improve his image by following his principles to the obvious conclusion.

[mileslunn]

Definitely shows strong tilt to right in Netherlands.  I mean contrary to stereotype, almost every election more vote for parties on right than left, but only recently has it been this lopsided.  Usually left gets in mid to high 30s, not low to mid 20s while right tends to get around 50% give or take a few points and rest centrist.