🇳🇱 Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: General Election (Nov 22)

[Mike88]

Groningen, Netherlands' 6th largest city has just reported its results:

30.4% GL-PvdA (+11.6)
13.2% PVV (+7.5)
11.6% NSC (new)
10.6% VVD (-3.1)
  9.0% D66 (-14.0)
  4.3% SP (-3.3)
  4.1% PVdD (-1.9)
  3.8% Volt (-1.7)
  2.6% CU (-1.4)
  2.3% BBB (+1.9)

[tomhguy]

Groningen, Netherlands' 6th largest city has just reported its results:

30.4% GL-PvdA (+11.6)
13.2% PVV (+7.5)
11.6% NSC (new)
10.6% VVD (-3.1)
  9.0% D66 (-14.0)
  4.3% SP (-3.3)
  4.1% PVdD (-1.9)
  3.8% Volt (-1.7)
  2.6% CU (-1.4)
  2.3% BBB (+1.9)

Snap!

[Oryxslayer]

So I have to assume that the cordon sanitaire will have to be broken here, it’s either that or a broad anti-PVV government which I expect wouldn’t last very long

Well it wasn't that much of a cordon compared to some other countries, the VVD+ CDA had built a coalition with the support of the PVV in 2010. And the VVD campaign made it clear they were open to the PVV again (as a partner to them of course, never intended to be the other way around).

The real issue for the PVV mathematically, is division not opposition. They are too far from most of the left to work with them, some of the minor right parties won't enter or support government ever, and Omtzigt is squatting in the middle of the political arena. He seemingly has principles, its why votes like him, and one of those is opposition to the PVV. But his principles also compel him to avoid a repeat contest, and every foundation for government goes through him. Either Gl-PvdA + VVD + someone else, or VVD + PVV.  

[jeron]

Calvinist hellhole (Urk)
SGP 48.3% (-6.2)
PVV 25.8% (+12)
NSC 6.0% (new)
BBB 5.0% (+4.9)
CU 4.1% (-4)
CDA 3.7% (-4.1)
FvD 3.7% (-5.9)
VVD 0.9% (-0.8 )
GL-PvdA 0.7% (+0.2)

First time SGP under 50% here?

No. CDA used to be much bigger and SGP smaller. And the CU predecessors were more conservative and therefore got more votes on Urk. In fact 2012 was the first time SGP got more than 50% of the votes there

[Aurelius2]

Don't like how FvD lost seats, bur Wilders is really good roo (apart from the zionism). European populist parties are often good because they're secular.

FvD lost seats because they used to be the Zemmour to PVV's Le Pen and now their leader has spent the last 2 years spouting insane nonsense about how 9/11 was an inside job, the moon landing is a hoax, and the world is run by reptile people.

[Aurelius2]

Even the SGP's infamously stable electorate had some strategic voting.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Calvinist hellhole (Urk)
SGP 48.3% (-6.2)
PVV 25.8% (+12)
NSC 6.0% (new)
BBB 5.0% (+4.9)
CU 4.1% (-4)
CDA 3.7% (-4.1)
FvD 3.7% (-5.9)
VVD 0.9% (-0.8 )
GL-PvdA 0.7% (+0.2)

First time SGP under 50% here?

slow die-off of people, SGP are mostly people who vote for that their entire life.

[Aurelius2]

Calvinist hellhole (Urk)
SGP 48.3% (-6.2)
PVV 25.8% (+12)
NSC 6.0% (new)
BBB 5.0% (+4.9)
CU 4.1% (-4)
CDA 3.7% (-4.1)
FvD 3.7% (-5.9)
VVD 0.9% (-0.8 )
GL-PvdA 0.7% (+0.2)

First time SGP under 50% here?

slow die-off of people, SGP are mostly people who vote for that their entire life.

No, this is because of strategic voting. If anything we can expect the SGP vote share to gradually grow over time due to their voters outbreeding the general population. I would not be surprised if they reach four seats by the end of the decade.

[DavidB.]

Former GroenLinks MP Zihni Özdil weighing in:

"Wilders should send the Dutch Hamas apologists of the last weeks some flowers. Their campaign, even at train stations during the commemoration of Kristallnacht, gained him at least 10 more seats."

https://twitter.com/ZihniOzdil/status/1727459713623773679?s=20

[Oryxslayer]

Groningen, Netherlands' 6th largest city has just reported its results:

30.4% GL-PvdA (+11.6)
13.2% PVV (+7.5)
11.6% NSC (new)
10.6% VVD (-3.1)
  9.0% D66 (-14.0)
  4.3% SP (-3.3)
  4.1% PVdD (-1.9)
  3.8% Volt (-1.7)
  2.6% CU (-1.4)
  2.3% BBB (+1.9)

Snap!

Similar story in Wageningen (university town outside Arnhem). Only here the GL-PvdA surge eclipsed even the D66 collapse, even with the NSC also taking from their pool. There was something similar in the Amsterdam quick count: the GL-PvdA vote, and especially their gains, is looking even more urban and urban-adjacent than the D66, despite the latter having a far worse vote in many other non-urban areas.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

PVV finishes first in Rotterdam.

[DavidB.]

There was something similar in the Amsterdam quick count: the GL-PvdA vote, and especially their gains, is looking even more urban and urban-adjacent than the D66, despite the latter having a far worse vote in many other non-urban areas.

Yes, because D66 is an option for the 'too liberal for VVD, too rich to vote GL/PvdA' type of voter that lives in suburbs but GL/PvdA is not.

[Oryxslayer]

Rotterdam. PVV failing to coming in first here when leading nationwide would have been a surprises. The large Muslim population has led to a large base for them as well. However, here it defiantly seems they got past nonvoters to turn out.

The main surprise I think is DENK gaining votes despite the GL-PvdA, despite the change in the electorate, and despite a decrease of support nationwide.

[RGM2609]

Any more clarity as to which party will come second/third/fourth?

[Mike88]

PVV also won in The Hague:

17.5% PVV (+6.4)
15.5% GL-PvdA (+3.4)
12.3% VVD (-7.6)
  7.1% DENK (-0.2)
  6.8% D66 (-11.0)
  6.8% NSC (new)
  2.7% PVdD (-2.3)
  2.1% SP (-2.0)
  2.1% FvD (-2.2)
  1.9% Volt (-1.3)

[Oryxslayer]

There was something similar in the Amsterdam quick count: the GL-PvdA vote, and especially their gains, is looking even more urban and urban-adjacent than the D66, despite the latter having a far worse vote in many other non-urban areas.

Yes, because D66 is an option for the 'too liberal for VVD, too rich to vote GL/PvdA' type of voter that lives in suburbs but GL/PvdA is not.

You misunderstand. I'm trying to express surprise at GL-PvdA seemingly appearing to be doing better among the urban/suburban areas and making most of their gains there, rather than places with a established PvdA base. This is despite what we know of, and you neatly conveyed, about the D66. And with NSC seemingly slipping into that position.

[Mike88]

Amsterdam:

28.8% GL-PvdA (+11.2)
10.2% VVD (-2.8 )
  8.5% D66 (-14.2)
  8.2% PVV (+3.1)
  6.2% DENK (-0.4)
  5.6% NSC (new)
  4.0% PVdD (-3.0)
  3.4% Volt (-2.5)
  2.7% SP (-2.2)
  2.2% FvD (-0.5)

[Oryxslayer]

Amsterdam



The Hauge

[Logical]

Also important to note, turnout went down by 5% in Amsterdam, 3% in Rotterdam and 2% in The Hague; while rural turnout is mostly holding.

[Oryxslayer]

Any more clarity as to which party will come second/third/fourth?

The VVD are going to have to do much better at retaining their vote in Holland than elsewhere for them to surpass GL-PvdA on their own IMO, if they do it will be because the left underperformed even a bit more then in estimates, or bad turnout. NSC has 4th locked in.

[Vosem]

How much of an option is GL/PvdA/VVD/NSC/D66? It is mathematically a majority but it feels difficult to imagine VVD joining a 5-party coalition where they would be the furthest-right party.

[tomhguy]

Seems to me now that the exit poll projection of 50+ getting a seat is getting less and less likely to occur in reality....

[Comrade Funk]

[Oryxslayer]

Seems to me now that the exit poll projection of 50+ getting a seat is getting less and less likely to occur in reality....

aaaaand the exit poll got adjusted with their seat going to PVV

[tomhguy]

Seems to me now that the exit poll projection of 50+ getting a seat is getting less and less likely to occur in reality....

aaaaand the exit poll got adjusted with their seat going to PVV

I'm clearly a prophet what can I say