🇳🇱 Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: General Election (Nov 22)

[RGM2609]

Do you think this could have been averted if Omtzigt didn't have his "I want to be PM but then again, I don't" moment?

Yes, if he had simply said he wanted to be PM and bring the change the Netherlands needs, the dynamic could have been completely different.

Why do you think he didn't do that? It should've been a no-brainer since he formed a party to run in the election and said party was leading in the polls.

Because he means what he says: he wants Parliament to be the most powerful institution and he wants the government to be merely an executive body, just as the author of our constitution had intended. He believes in the change he preaches. I think that's very noble, but to voters it looked differently.

Guess my experience in Eastern European politics made me too cynical. Seems like a nice enough guy lol.

[DL]

I get that PVV plays the xenophobia card and make rightwing populist promises about stopping asylum seekers etc... but what do they offer when it comes to inflation? Do they promise to wave a magic wand and make prices drop?

[oldtimer]

If I was Omtizgt I would probably feel that I would be the biggest loser from a snap election, right? Like, getting more seats than this might be hard, and there's more downside, likely...

He has 3 options:

1. Do nothing, go for new elections = Gets vaporised by the PVV.
2. Gets in bed with the PVV = Could become PM, but would need some form of VVD support.
3. Gets in bed with GL-PvdA = Gets vaporised by the PVV.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

They interview someone from DENK and the party's supporters use it as an opportunity to have Palestinian flags take up 66% or more of the screen behind the interviewee. That's certainly on-brand lol

[afleitch]

I get that PVV plays the xenophobia card and make rightwing populist promises about stopping asylum seekers etc... but what do they offer when it comes to inflation? Do they promise to wave a magic wand and make prices drop?

The populist far right have never offered anything concrete in terms of economics. It's all been social reactionism; targeting people and what people 'represent' which ebbs and flows. It's currently a good time in the West to offer nothing other than targeting minorities and any other out group in lieu of making anyone financially better off.

[oldtimer]

Why is right wing populists doing so well throughout Europe as already in power in Italy, leading in Austria, around 20% in Finland, Sweden, and Germany, rising in Spain & Portugal.  UK & Ireland seem only two where weak although in UK I am guessing disaster of Brexit probably big reason.  My understanding is elsewhere, right wing populists don't call for leaving EU so can at least avoid that risk.

It's mostly figures and parties that have stayed around for quite some time, so voters are more familiar with them.

Farage could be doing equally good at the moment if he stayed around leading a party, his absence in Britain is probably the only reason Reform gets 8% rather than 18%.

Also a lot of voters in Western Europe who remember WW2 and are most resistant to right wing change are dying of old age, in Eastern Europe it's the reverse as the fear of Communists fades.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

what the f@ck Netherlands

[mileslunn]

I get that PVV plays the xenophobia card and make rightwing populist promises about stopping asylum seekers etc... but what do they offer when it comes to inflation? Do they promise to wave a magic wand and make prices drop?

That is my question but seems in many countries with things bad, people for whatever reason like to go after those weaker than them not stronger thus why right wing populists succeeding and left failing.  A lot of it is emotional not well thought out.

[Logical]

Some interesting voter movements from the exit poll

NSC

PVV

CDA

VVD

GL-PvdA

D66

[oldtimer]

I get that PVV plays the xenophobia card and make rightwing populist promises about stopping asylum seekers etc... but what do they offer when it comes to inflation? Do they promise to wave a magic wand and make prices drop?

That is my question but seems in many countries with things bad, people for whatever reason like to go after those weaker than them not stronger thus why right wing populists succeeding and left failing.  A lot of it is emotional not well thought out.

If you don't throw money to voters you are just left with a social agenda.

[EastAnglianLefty]

As for immigration, my understanding is levels are generally lower than past and its been a longstanding issue so if that is main reason how come right wing populists only doing well recently?

You're assuming that the right wing populists only have a problem with people who have just arrived.

[mileslunn]

Question for those who know more about Dutch politics, but image in English speaking world is Netherlands is a fairly progressive country yet seems in almost every election, far more vote for right leaning parties than left leaning even though right wing quite diverse.  What is reason for that and is Netherlands really that progressive or is that more an image some have from just visiting Amsterdam which is quite progressive?

I get cross country comparisons bad idea but seems right in Netherlands gets more than right does in Australia, Canada, UK & US even though US has image of being a fairly right leaning country while other three mixed but generally seen by outsiders as more conservative than Netherlands.  So is image of country false, or is right different than Anglosphere thus bad comparison?

[mileslunn]

I get that PVV plays the xenophobia card and make rightwing populist promises about stopping asylum seekers etc... but what do they offer when it comes to inflation? Do they promise to wave a magic wand and make prices drop?

That is my question but seems in many countries with things bad, people for whatever reason like to go after those weaker than them not stronger thus why right wing populists succeeding and left failing.  A lot of it is emotional not well thought out.

If you don't throw money to voters you are just left with a social agenda.

So then how come we aren't seeing Bernie Sanders type parties going anywhere in Europe?  While that is not my type of politics, at least that style of populism I understand more than right wing type.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Hope to god Wilders never gets to be pm just a disaster all around that would be

Nonetheless, the Netherlands should have a five-percent threshold like Germany to make government formation much easier. It's kind of weird a party only needs around 0.6% of the vote to win a seat.

Undemocratic.

Electoral thresholds are idiotic.

If you care about the stuff you're stating, don't lose elections and listen to people. That's the last you do.

[Cassius]

I get that PVV plays the xenophobia card and make rightwing populist promises about stopping asylum seekers etc... but what do they offer when it comes to inflation? Do they promise to wave a magic wand and make prices drop?

I mean, what did any of the other parties offer to tackle inflation? The only way a government can ‘tackle’ inflation in the short term is by inducing a recession via contractionary fiscal and monetary policy. This is obviously very unpopular so instead all parties and all governments in all countries promise to wave the magic wand. The left (and this is a pan-western thing rather than something specific to the Netherlands) have no solutions either, so they just retreat into platitudes about ‘Green New Deals’ and ‘fairness’.

Ultimately, in 2023 the toolkit that national governments have for influencing economic matters is very limited (especially if you’re a member of the EU), so the ‘social’ issues (a crude phrase but it’ll have to do) are the only real remaining area of contestation.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Question for those who know more about Dutch politics, but image in English speaking world is Netherlands is a fairly progressive country yet seems in almost every election, far more vote for right leaning parties than left leaning even though right wing quite diverse.  What is reason for that and is Netherlands really that progressive or is that more an image some have from just visiting Amsterdam which is quite progressive?

I get cross country comparisons bad idea but seems right in Netherlands gets more than right does in Australia, Canada, UK & US even though US has image of being a fairly right leaning country while other three mixed but generally seen by outsiders as more conservative than Netherlands.  So is image of country false, or is right different than Anglosphere thus bad comparison?

It's because the Netherlands being progressive is kinda a myth. Its even to the right of belgium. Maybe flemish voters are more right wing but the systems are more right wing.

Sure in terms of economical issues, they're far to the left of the USA. But the point is, everyone in Europe and everyone in the world is, aside of maybe Israel.

Even the far right supports universal healthcare. It's consensus. It's commonly accepted. No-one questions that. It's not even a political issue.

Universal healthcare is like slavery here. The debate is settled.

[Cassius]

Anyway, good to see another Simon Kuper L:

https://www.ft.com/content/411050a7-0a60-4d8e-b4c9-395815b66caf

[LAKISYLVANIA]

They interview someone from DENK and the party's supporters use it as an opportunity to have Palestinian flags take up 66% or more of the screen behind the interviewee. That's certainly on-brand lol

Makes sense, most of their vote base is immigrants and mostly islam believers. It's also the right position, i would not vote for them because I don't think i would feel welcome there as a white. And because it's socially conservative and too pro-Erdogan.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Timmermans is such a jerk and idiot though, i would not have voted for him. Neither on D66 who seems totally clueless esp. in his speech. Weakest speech of the evening. The interview with the VVD chairwoman was also very embarrassing, and probably the only good thing D66 chair did was criticizing VVD but really if you yourself win 10 seats and call yourself happy with that as D66, that's probably the silliest thing i've heard the entire evening.

I don't think I could see myself ever supporting those two. I like Jesse Klaver but Timmermans is stupid. I would have voted PvdD.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

I get that PVV plays the xenophobia card and make rightwing populist promises about stopping asylum seekers etc... but what do they offer when it comes to inflation? Do they promise to wave a magic wand and make prices drop?

That is my question but seems in many countries with things bad, people for whatever reason like to go after those weaker than them not stronger thus why right wing populists succeeding and left failing.  A lot of it is emotional not well thought out.

If you don't throw money to voters you are just left with a social agenda.

So then how come we aren't seeing Bernie Sanders type parties going anywhere in Europe?  While that is not my type of politics, at least that style of populism I understand more than right wing type.

Because what Bernie Sanders advocate for in the USA is the status quo in Europe.

[jeron]

Some interesting voter movements from the exit poll

NSC

This makes clear that Omtzigt could easily lose about half of his voters by entering a coalition with PVV. They can go back to CDA, D66, PvdA-GL, PvdD and Volt

[DL]

I get that PVV plays the xenophobia card and make rightwing populist promises about stopping asylum seekers etc... but what do they offer when it comes to inflation? Do they promise to wave a magic wand and make prices drop?

That is my question but seems in many countries with things bad, people for whatever reason like to go after those weaker than them not stronger thus why right wing populists succeeding and left failing.  A lot of it is emotional not well thought out.

If you don't throw money to voters you are just left with a social agenda.

So then how come we aren't seeing Bernie Sanders type parties going anywhere in Europe?  While that is not my type of politics, at least that style of populism I understand more than right wing type.

There is Melenchon in France and Wagenknecht in Germany...but as has been noted almost everything Bernie Sanders supports could be in the platform of a centre right Christian Democrat party in Europe. He is only radical by US standards

[mileslunn]

I get that PVV plays the xenophobia card and make rightwing populist promises about stopping asylum seekers etc... but what do they offer when it comes to inflation? Do they promise to wave a magic wand and make prices drop?

That is my question but seems in many countries with things bad, people for whatever reason like to go after those weaker than them not stronger thus why right wing populists succeeding and left failing.  A lot of it is emotional not well thought out.

If you don't throw money to voters you are just left with a social agenda.

So then how come we aren't seeing Bernie Sanders type parties going anywhere in Europe?  While that is not my type of politics, at least that style of populism I understand more than right wing type.

Because what Bernie Sanders advocate for in the USA is the status quo in Europe.

Is it?  I mean yes they have larger social safety net but on taxes he was far to left of any European politician.  Wanted top tax rate of 70% which no European country has.  I believe Netherlands is 49.5% which is higher than most of US although slightly below California (50.3%) and highest any party proposed pushing it up to was 60%.  Also for a wealth tax and Netherlands I don't believe has one (only 3 European countries I believe do).  Only reason perhaps might not work is EU has free mobility of labour so risk of rich fleeing to a neighbouring country much higher than in US where only way to avoid tax is renounce US citizenship.  But not sure average voter knows this as most go more on vibes so so blaming rich fat cats and we will tax them to help those struggling I would think would appeal to some even if simplistic and may do more harm than good.  Canada like Europe has much stronger social safety net and while less radical than Sanders, Trudeau won in big part on taxing rich more to help middle class even if tax hikes on rich fairly modest.

In fact on taxation, I believe Europe in general is much less progressive than US as have high VATs and high rates kick in at relatively low levels.  US has more progressive tax system than Europe but lower at all levels

[jeron]

Timmermans is such a jerk and idiot though, i would not have voted for him. Neither on D66 who seems totally clueless esp. in his speech. Weakest speech of the evening. The interview with the VVD chairwoman was also very embarrassing, and probably the only good thing D66 chair did was criticizing VVD but really if you yourself win 10 seats and call yourself happy with that as D66, that's probably the silliest thing i've heard the entire evening.

I don't think I could see myself ever supporting those two. I like Jesse Klaver but Timmermans is stupid. I would have voted PvdD.

hahaha, you would have voted for a single use party which has voted internally the entier year!

[Oryxslayer]

SGP fails to come in first in Zwartewaterland, something that has always happened since the demise of the CDA as a large party of power. The same is true in Hardinxveld-Giessendam. Tiny towns in the bible Belt, but the BBB to PVV pipe seems strong here.