🇳🇱 Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: General Election (Nov 22)

[DavidB.]

Ipsos exit effect at it again, looking at the updated prognosis (VVD +1, GL-PvdA -1). VVD could be bigger than GL-PvdA at the end of the night.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1727428063032746197

[Logical]

PVV 35 (+18)
GL-PvdA 26 (+9)
VVD 23 (-11)
NSC 20 (New)
D66 10 (-14)
BBB 7 (+6)
CDA 5 (-10)
SP 5 (-10)
PvdD 4 (-2)
FvD 3 (-5)
CU 3 (-2)
SGP 3
Volt 2 (-1)
Denk 2 (-1)
JA21 1 (-2)
50Plus 1 (lol)
Bij1 0 (-1)

Welcome to Bulgaria

Updated exit poll
PVV 35 (+18)
GL-PvdA 25 (+8)
VVD 24 (-10)
NSC 20 (New)
D66 10 (-14)
BBB 7 (+6)
CDA 5 (-10)
SP 5 (-10)
PvdD 3 (-3)
FvD 3 (-5)
CU 3 (-2)
SGP 3
Denk 3
Volt 2 (-1)
JA21 1 (-2)
50Plus 1
BIJ1 0 (-1)
GL-PvdA and PvdD loses a seat
VVD and Denk gains a seat each

[Aurelius2]

The deterioration and in some cases utter collapse of many of the worst (from my POV) parties in Dutch politics all across the political spectrum - CU, PvdD, FvD, SP, Volt, BIJ1 - is another nice touch.

[oldtimer]

Wilders' victory speech was interesting.
He used the word 'tsunami' to describe the results.
Fair enough.

It's not really a tsunami but he can celebrate.

Wilders has been teased with winning elections since 2010, always leading at some point in opinion polls but always coming short on election day.

If the exit poll is correct all parties to the right of the VVD get exactly 75 seats.

[Coldstream]

BVNL (one of the many FVD splinter micro parties) fail to enter parliament, meaning it’s a waste of far right votes - could be crucial in determining the eventual coalition arrangement.

[Diouf]

Wilders' victory speech was interesting.
He used the word 'tsunami' to describe the results.
Fair enough.

As I heard it, he talked about stopping the "asylum tsunami". Not in relation to the results.

[DavidB.]

The final turnout figure is supposed to be 78.2%.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

It's a tsunami in that the PVV has went from nearly the verges of irrelevance in 2019 after losing all their MEPs to potentially the largest party in the Netherlands within 4 years.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Wilders' victory speech was interesting.
He used the word 'tsunami' to describe the results.
Fair enough.

As I heard it, he talked about stopping the "asylum tsunami". Not in relation to the results.

Ah. Thanks for correcting, I can't really comprehend Dutch on a high level and assumed he was talking about the election results.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

https://twitter.com/Nassreddin2002/status/1727417631068877011
https://twitter.com/Nassreddin2002/status/1727422317779701936
Stages of grief speedrun.

In fairness, I think that guy is a dual national with a Moroccan background so he has quite a legitimate reason to fear a Wilders gov beyond normal partisan "muh side lost".

Interesting there was no predicted "gaza effect" to either sace Bij1 or bolster denk.

If the senate is problematic, is there a mechanism by which ths regions can be prematurely dissolved so a new senate can be elected?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Are the odds of a 2024 election greater than 50%?

[jeron]

https://twitter.com/Nassreddin2002/status/1727417631068877011
https://twitter.com/Nassreddin2002/status/1727422317779701936
Stages of grief speedrun.

In fairness, I think that guy is a dual national with a Moroccan background so he has quite a legitimate reason to fear a Wilders gov beyond normal partisan "muh side lost".

Interesting there was no predicted "gaza effect" to either sace Bij1 or bolster denk.

If the senate is problematic, is there a mechanism by which ths regions can be prematurely dissolved so a new senate can be elected?

No, regional or local councils cannot be dissolved early.

[Zinneke]

Are the odds of a 2024 election greater than 50%?

I think more likely is they all ride out the EP elections with an interim government then form a coalition that nobody likes.

[Logical]

Well VVD's strategy of legitimizing Wilders and opening the door for him worked out great didn't it? Not the first time a far right party canniblizes legacy center right parties after they were legitimized.

[mileslunn]

Why is right wing populists doing so well throughout Europe as already in power in Italy, leading in Austria, around 20% in Finland, Sweden, and Germany, rising in Spain & Portugal.  UK & Ireland seem only two where weak although in UK I am guessing disaster of Brexit probably big reason.  My understanding is elsewhere, right wing populists don't call for leaving EU so can at least avoid that risk.

[DavidB.]

In terms of maps, the ones for second, third and fourth place are arguably going to be more interesting than the ones for first place.

Why is right wing populists doing so well throughout Europe as already in power in Italy, leading in Austria, around 20% in Finland, Sweden, and Germany, rising in Spain & Portugal.  UK & Ireland seem only two where weak although in UK I am guessing disaster of Brexit probably big reason.  My understanding is elsewhere, right wing populists don't call for leaving EU so can at least avoid that risk.

I would try to answer your question if I could make sense of the sentences.

Are the odds of a 2024 election greater than 50%?

About that, I think. It's more complicated than ever, but it's also the Netherlands, so don't rule out that things will work out in the end once polarization has died down a little. I don't rule out the possiblity of Yesilgöz and Omtzigt (whose instincts are more right-wing than he likes to show) making a move if Wilders is open to nominating a different PM and staying in parliament.

[Comrade Funk]

Why is right wing populists doing so well throughout Europe as already in power in Italy, leading in Austria, around 20% in Finland, Sweden, and Germany, rising in Spain & Portugal.  UK & Ireland seem only two where weak although in UK I am guessing disaster of Brexit probably big reason.  My understanding is elsewhere, right wing populists don't call for leaving EU so can at least avoid that risk.

I think migration/immigration is the big driver, combined with high inflation (worse than US). This is true for at least German I think

[RGM2609]

Do you think this could have been averted if Omtzigt didn't have his "I want to be PM but then again, I don't" moment?

[DavidB.]

Do you think this could have been averted if Omtzigt didn't have his "I want to be PM but then again, I don't" moment?

Yes, if he had simply said he wanted to be PM and bring the change the Netherlands needs, the dynamic could have been completely different.

In the end, the difference between the last polls and the election result is just VVD and NSC voters jumping ship. Wilders was the only candidate with a clear pitch: vote for me and we'll try to stop immigration and you won't get Timmermans. Yesilgöz and Omtzigt were too vague about the PVV question, leaving open the door to GL/PvdA. Poll after poll showed that most right-wing voters wanted NSC and VVD to do deals with the PVV, not because they are so much in love with Wilders but because that would be the only way to solve immigration. And because NSC and VVD were too afraid to lose voters if they committed themselves to this type of cooperation too much, they lost them - not to the left but to the PVV itself.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

If I was Omtizgt I would probably feel that I would be the biggest loser from a snap election, right? Like, getting more seats than this might be hard, and there's more downside, likely...

[mileslunn]

Agreed high inflation concern, but shouldn't that help left in countries where centre-right in power as they are for more social programs yet it seems other than maybe Ireland now that type of policy not selling (I leave UK out as Labour then like Blair so fairly centrist).  I kind of wonder why parties proposing Bernie Sanders type solutions doing so horrible as I would think taxing rich more for more social programs would have some appeal with high inflation.

As for immigration, my understanding is levels are generally lower than past and its been a longstanding issue so if that is main reason how come right wing populists only doing well recently?

[RGM2609]

Do you think this could have been averted if Omtzigt didn't have his "I want to be PM but then again, I don't" moment?

Yes, if he had simply said he wanted to be PM and bring the change the Netherlands needs, the dynamic could have been completely different.

Why do you think he didn't do that? It should've been a no-brainer since he formed a party to run in the election and said party was leading in the polls.

[ottermax]

Agreed high inflation concern, but shouldn't that help left in countries where centre-right in power as they are for more social programs yet it seems other than maybe Ireland now that type of policy not selling (I leave UK out as Labour then like Blair so fairly centrist).  I kind of wonder why parties proposing Bernie Sanders type solutions doing so horrible as I would think taxing rich more for more social programs would have some appeal with high inflation.

As for immigration, my understanding is levels are generally lower than past and its been a longstanding issue so if that is main reason how come right wing populists only doing well recently?

Have left-leaning voices really offered much solutions to the most prominent issues of inflation and migration?

[DavidB.]

Do you think this could have been averted if Omtzigt didn't have his "I want to be PM but then again, I don't" moment?

Yes, if he had simply said he wanted to be PM and bring the change the Netherlands needs, the dynamic could have been completely different.

Why do you think he didn't do that? It should've been a no-brainer since he formed a party to run in the election and said party was leading in the polls.

Because he means what he says: he wants Parliament to be the most powerful institution and he wants the government to be merely an executive body, just as the author of our constitution had intended. He believes in the change he preaches. I think that's very noble, but to voters it looked differently.