🇳🇱 Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: General Election (Nov 22)

[Logical]

Are there any countries where TV debates have such a provably huge impact on election results as the Netherlands? This isn't even the first time something like this has happened.

Canada?

[JimJamUK]

Denk down in the current circumstances is nice to see I suppose.

[tomhguy]

I mean GL-PvdA+VVD+NSC+D66 form a majority, but not sure whether it would be a good idea politically to exclude PVV from government (for VVD)

[jeron]

Looks like it would be very difficult to form a government-what's the pathway from this?

If it is genuinely impossible, then fresh elections. If it is just about possible, then a weak government (though there are different ways in which it might be week) which staggers on for a while (a year or so? Two?) before fresh elections.

Most likely repeat elections within a year

[tomhguy]

What are the chances of a PVV-PvdA coalition?

Zero?

[jeron]

I mean GL-PvdA+VVD+NSC+D66 form a majority, but not sure whether it would be a good idea politically to exclude PVV from government (for VVD)

No majority in the senate though and probably not a stable government anyway

[Hindsight was 2020]

Hope to god Wilders never gets to be pm just a disaster all around that would be

[tomhguy]

I mean GL-PvdA+VVD+NSC+D66 form a majority, but not sure whether it would be a good idea politically to exclude PVV from government (for VVD)

No majority in the senate though and probably not a stable government anyway

Yea true, but it's the only non-PVV government I can really see that would be realistic without involving loads of parties haha

[Pericles]

I mean GL-PvdA+VVD+NSC+D66 form a majority, but not sure whether it would be a good idea politically to exclude PVV from government (for VVD)

Does the prospect of Timmermans as PM make it harder than if the VVD got second? PM from third feels weird.

[Logical]

Party: I&O - Ipsos - Peil

PVV: 28 - 27 - 29
GL-PvdA: 27 - 24 - 28
VVD: 27 - 29 - 26
NSC: 21 - 19 - 19
D66: 9 - 11 - 8
BBB: 5 - 6 - 6
SP: 6 - 5 - 5
PvdD: 5 - 5 - 4
CDA: 4 - 4 - 6
FVD: 4 - 3 - 4
DENK: 3 - 4 - 4
CU: 3 - 4 - 3
Volt: 3 - 4 - 3
SGP: 3 - 3 - 2
JA21: 1 - 1 - 1
BIJ1: 0 - 1 - 1
BVNL:  1 - 0  - 1
50Plus: 0 - 0 - 0

All very close to each other, except for Ipsos on GL/PvdA; they have D66 higher.

Compared to the final polls it is clear that the right tactically voted for PVV while the left did not do the same for GL-PvdA. The balance between the right and left "blocs" did not shift much.

[tomhguy]

Party: I&O - Ipsos - Peil

PVV: 28 - 27 - 29
GL-PvdA: 27 - 24 - 28
VVD: 27 - 29 - 26
NSC: 21 - 19 - 19
D66: 9 - 11 - 8
BBB: 5 - 6 - 6
SP: 6 - 5 - 5
PvdD: 5 - 5 - 4
CDA: 4 - 4 - 6
FVD: 4 - 3 - 4
DENK: 3 - 4 - 4
CU: 3 - 4 - 3
Volt: 3 - 4 - 3
SGP: 3 - 3 - 2
JA21: 1 - 1 - 1
BIJ1: 0 - 1 - 1
BVNL:  1 - 0  - 1
50Plus: 0 - 0 - 0

All very close to each other, except for Ipsos on GL/PvdA; they have D66 higher.

Compared to the final polls it is clear that the right tactically voted for PVV while the left did not do the same for GL-PvdA. The balance between the right and left "blocs" did not shift much.

Or alternatively that the "tacitcal voting for the left" maybe had already taken place as much as it could up to this point? I don't really know

[Tintrlvr]

Remarkable that the CDA was once the "natural governing party" of the Netherlands. Now they are down to THREE PERCENT of the national popular vote.

"Once" just ~15 years ago, too.

[jeron]

I mean GL-PvdA+VVD+NSC+D66 form a majority, but not sure whether it would be a good idea politically to exclude PVV from government (for VVD)

Does the prospect of Timmermans as PM make it harder than if the VVD got second? PM from third feels weird.

Frankly, I don't think Yesilgoz would be acceptable for the average PVV voter

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Is CDA likely going into opposition?

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

Remarkable that the CDA was once the "natural governing party" of the Netherlands. Now they are down to THREE PERCENT of the national popular vote.

"Once" just ~15 years ago, too.

I remember being amused at a rather understated description of their 2010.result - that it was "disappointing". In hindsight I suppose it looks good.

[Oryxslayer]

Party: I&O - Ipsos - Peil

PVV: 28 - 27 - 29
GL-PvdA: 27 - 24 - 28
VVD: 27 - 29 - 26
NSC: 21 - 19 - 19
D66: 9 - 11 - 8
BBB: 5 - 6 - 6
SP: 6 - 5 - 5
PvdD: 5 - 5 - 4
CDA: 4 - 4 - 6
FVD: 4 - 3 - 4
DENK: 3 - 4 - 4
CU: 3 - 4 - 3
Volt: 3 - 4 - 3
SGP: 3 - 3 - 2
JA21: 1 - 1 - 1
BIJ1: 0 - 1 - 1
BVNL:  1 - 0  - 1
50Plus: 0 - 0 - 0

All very close to each other, except for Ipsos on GL/PvdA; they have D66 higher.

Compared to the final polls it is clear that the right tactically voted for PVV while the left did not do the same for GL-PvdA. The balance between the right and left "blocs" did not shift much.

Or alternatively that the "tacitcal voting for the left" maybe had already taken place as much as it could up to this point? I don't really know

Well, the left parties did get squeezed compared to the final polls. There is left tactical voting here. The issue perhaps is the block of 'Left-Liberal" types who would float tactically were those who saw themselves are more left leaning withint the Omtzigt tent, and his Hardline on the PVV kept them there.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I remember being amused at a rather understated description of their 2010.result - that it was "disappointing". In hindsight I suppose it looks good.

The genepool has left the mother party and found a new home. Odd when this happens.

[jeron]

Party: I&O - Ipsos - Peil

PVV: 28 - 27 - 29
GL-PvdA: 27 - 24 - 28
VVD: 27 - 29 - 26
NSC: 21 - 19 - 19
D66: 9 - 11 - 8
BBB: 5 - 6 - 6
SP: 6 - 5 - 5
PvdD: 5 - 5 - 4
CDA: 4 - 4 - 6
FVD: 4 - 3 - 4
DENK: 3 - 4 - 4
CU: 3 - 4 - 3
Volt: 3 - 4 - 3
SGP: 3 - 3 - 2
JA21: 1 - 1 - 1
BIJ1: 0 - 1 - 1
BVNL:  1 - 0  - 1
50Plus: 0 - 0 - 0

All very close to each other, except for Ipsos on GL/PvdA; they have D66 higher.

Compared to the final polls it is clear that the right tactically voted for PVV while the left did not do the same for GL-PvdA. The balance between the right and left "blocs" did not shift much.

Or alternatively that the "tacitcal voting for the left" maybe had already taken place as much as it could up to this point? I don't really know

I know quite a few people for who don't like Timmermans and who might have voted PVDA-GL with a different leader. Timmermans is not well liked, many people think he is arrogant

[Oryxslayer]

Is CDA likely going into opposition?

More like guarantied. That has been their path for a while.

[President Johnson]

Hope to god Wilders never gets to be pm just a disaster all around that would be

I doubt it since he wouldn't have coalition partners that get him a majority.

Nonetheless, the Netherlands should have a five-percent threshold like Germany to make government formation much easier. It's kind of weird a party only needs around 0.6% of the vote to win a seat.

[Aurelius2]

Holy crap, this is wild. Love it.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/Nassreddin2002/status/1727417631068877011
https://twitter.com/Nassreddin2002/status/1727422317779701936
Stages of grief speedrun.

[oldtimer]

Party: I&O - Ipsos - Peil

PVV: 28 - 27 - 29
GL-PvdA: 27 - 24 - 28
VVD: 27 - 29 - 26
NSC: 21 - 19 - 19
D66: 9 - 11 - 8
BBB: 5 - 6 - 6
SP: 6 - 5 - 5
PvdD: 5 - 5 - 4
CDA: 4 - 4 - 6
FVD: 4 - 3 - 4
DENK: 3 - 4 - 4
CU: 3 - 4 - 3
Volt: 3 - 4 - 3
SGP: 3 - 3 - 2
JA21: 1 - 1 - 1
BIJ1: 0 - 1 - 1
BVNL:  1 - 0  - 1
50Plus: 0 - 0 - 0

All very close to each other, except for Ipsos on GL/PvdA; they have D66 higher.

Compared to the final polls it is clear that the right tactically voted for PVV while the left did not do the same for GL-PvdA. The balance between the right and left "blocs" did not shift much.

Or alternatively that the "tacitcal voting for the left" maybe had already taken place as much as it could up to this point? I don't really know

I know quite a few people for who don't like Timmermans and who might have voted PVDA-GL with a different leader. Timmermans is not well liked, many people think he is arrogant

The impact of Timmermans as an unpopular PM of a multiparty centrist coalition of losers will simply fuel the extremes even more.

I guess Wilders is set on the LePen path.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Wilders' victory speech was interesting.
He used the word 'tsunami' to describe the results.
Fair enough.

[Coldstream]

Hard to see how the maths works for Wilders to be PM, although denying him the office probably won’t go well for VVD. Maybe they’ll bite the bullet and gamble that he’ll mess up.