🇳🇱 Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: General Election (Nov 22)

[tomhguy]

There are still 4 debates until election day. Things could change till Wednesday.

Oh yeah, definitely a lot could change - Dutch elections tend to be relatively volatile in the last week or so (see D66 in 2021, VVD in 2017 or PVV in 2010). However, for some reason my gut feeling seems to be telling me that NSC really are going to flop compared to polling until recently. I think voters may be very apprehensive about Omtzigt's lack of willingness surrounding being PM etc.... After all the ups and downs of the last 2 years, could we just end up with the same result the Dutch always seem to get and have the VVD in 1st place again lol?

[Harlow]

So that’s why I saw Klaver and Timmermans warning  about a Wilders-led government earlier today.

What are the chances of potential coalition parties allowing Wilders to be PM? I assume slim, but maybe his supposedly more moderate tone has shifted things.

What a bag-fumble by Omtzigt if NSC ends up in 4th place. He had such a long time to decide whether he was willing to be PM before launching his party but he never got around to settling on an answer, and it’s clearly costing him.

[jeron]

So that’s why I saw Klaver and Timmermans warning  about a Wilders-led government earlier today.

What are the chances of potential coalition parties allowing Wilders to be PM? I assume slim, but maybe his supposedly more moderate tone has shifted things.

What a bag-fumble by Omtzigt if NSC ends up in 4th place. He had such a long time to decide whether he was willing to be PM before launching his party but he never got around to settling on an answer, and it’s clearly costing him.

There won't be a Wilders led government. It would be supported by BBB, JA21 and fvd. That's about it.
As to Omtzigt if he loses this will be one of the reasons. It took him too much time to decide to start his own party. After that he wasn't clear about his political positions. He just seems to be wavering too much
I am not sure if excluding PVV did go down well with voters on the right and the same can be said for moderate voters by opting for a coalition with JA21 and SGP.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

It would be kinda funny if the first time PVV wins an election is this utter trainwreck (although with such vote divisions perhaps it makes sense)

[DavidB.]

Yeah, no chance Wilders leads the government.

Omtzigt has now announced that he is willing to be PM, but only in a government consisting of experts. Smart move and could save some of his support, as this is a rather popular idea. But he should really have come up with it earlier. He comes across as too indecisive.

[Mike88]

Yeah, no chance Wilders leads the government.

Omtzigt has now announced that he is willing to be PM, but only in a government consisting of experts. Smart move and could save some of his support, as this is a rather popular idea. But he should really have come up with it earlier. He comes across as too indecisive.

This could also be perceived as a desperate flip-flop in order to regain votes. And, let's be frank, a government of experts? Sure.

[Flyersfan232]

Yeah, no chance Wilders leads the government.

Omtzigt has now announced that he is willing to be PM, but only in a government consisting of experts. Smart move and could save some of his support, as this is a rather popular idea. But he should really have come up with it earlier. He comes across as too indecisive.

in a event of a pvv first place victory could we see a right wing government lead by a techonatic prime minister?

[CumbrianLefty]

Yeah, no chance Wilders leads the government.

Omtzigt has now announced that he is willing to be PM, but only in a government consisting of experts. Smart move and could save some of his support, as this is a rather popular idea. But he should really have come up with it earlier. He comes across as too indecisive.

This could also be perceived as a desperate flip-flop in order to regain votes. And, let's be frank, a government of experts? Sure.

Such proposals always have a certain amount of electoral appeal due to "anti-politics" sentiment.

[DavidB.]

in a event of a pvv first place victory could we see a right wing government lead by a techonatic prime minister?

It could be, but Yesilgöz would be the likeliest option in that case. That's the price the VVD will definitely ask.

Jeron was right about the fact that De Hond has a tendency of overpolling the PVV, though, so I wouldn't overstate the chances of this happening. However, all the media carried the story anyway which could create a bandwagon effect now. I'd still place my bets on VVD, NSC or actually GL-PvdA, because of scared anti-PVV left-wingers now willing to cast a tactical vote for Timmermans.

[DavidB.]

"Election presence" seems lower than usual in the Netherlands - particularly with a lot fewer posters in people's houses than before. Also not as much paid advertisement - on highways mostly VVD with some JA21, FVD and GL-PvdA; at bus stops mostly GL-PvdA, D66 and VVD. On the other hand, switch on the radio on a random music station for an hour and they will talk about the election. Feels like there is no all-encompassing election theme and many people could still switch within their ideologically coherent subset of parties. It could make GL-PvdA into the biggest party - but not sure which other parties would be willing to make Timmermans PM...

This evening I&O will present a new poll; Ipsos, De Hond and perhaps I&O (again) will publish polls tomorrow.

[tomhguy]

"Election presence" seems lower than usual in the Netherlands - particularly with a lot fewer posters in people's houses than before. Also not as much paid advertisement - on highways mostly VVD with some JA21, FVD and GL-PvdA; at bus stops mostly GL-PvdA, D66 and VVD. On the other hand, switch on the radio on a random music station for an hour and they will talk about the election. Feels like there is no all-encompassing election theme and many people could still switch within their ideologically coherent subset of parties. It could make GL-PvdA into the biggest party - but not sure which other parties would be willing to make Timmermans PM...

Correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't this election originally billed to be the "immigration election". Why do you think it hasn't really panned out that way?

[DavidB.]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't this election originally billed to be the "immigration election". Why do you think it hasn't really panned out that way?

I think it was a mistake to think it would be the central theme in the first place. The reason a government collapses isn't always the central theme of the next election, especially with more than 4 months between the collapse of the government and the general election in which all sorts of other things can happen. But immigration absolutely is one of the central themes of this election, with three out of the four big parties - VVD, NSC and PVV - all emphasizing it.

[tomhguy]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't this election originally billed to be the "immigration election". Why do you think it hasn't really panned out that way?

I think it was a mistake to think it would be the central theme in the first place. The reason a government collapses isn't always the central theme of the next election, especially with more than 4 months between the collapse of the government and the general election in which all sorts of other things can happen. But immigration absolutely is one of the central themes of this election, with three out of the four big parties - VVD, NSC and PVV - all emphasizing it.

If immigration has been one of the big issues of the right parties, has GL-PvdA got a strong theme that they're pushing? Because from what it seems like, a lot of their votes are simply tactical votes to try and stop some kind of right-wing government involving PVV?

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1726674739354042779?t=u5wtzC1EUN78MuDMKc...

[Umengus]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1726674739354042779?t=u5wtzC1EUN78MuDMKc...

Tactical voting

[tomhguy]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1726674739354042779?t=u5wtzC1EUN78MuDMKc...

So the PVV surge most likely is at least a bit true then based on the last 2 polls and this poll seems to suggest that it is leading to tactical voting.
I wonder whether the decline of NSC is mainly NSC -> PVV voters or whether they are going elsewhere?

[DL]

Remarkable that the CDA was once the "natural governing party" of the Netherlands. Now they are down to THREE PERCENT of the national popular vote.

[Mike88]

Yeah, no chance Wilders leads the government.

Omtzigt has now announced that he is willing to be PM, but only in a government consisting of experts. Smart move and could save some of his support, as this is a rather popular idea. But he should really have come up with it earlier. He comes across as too indecisive.

This could also be perceived as a desperate flip-flop in order to regain votes. And, let's be frank, a government of experts? Sure.

Such proposals always have a certain amount of electoral appeal due to "anti-politics" sentiment.

I agree, but at this late stage it's just desperate. Either he ran on it since the beginning, or voters will just see someone freaking out.

[Mike88]

Another attack against Thierry Baudet, FvD leader. Baudet was treated at a Hospital due to an injury near the eye.

https://twitter.com/MrAndyNgo/status/1726679653233144277

[DavidB.]

Some figures from the I&O poll:

GL-PvdA and PVV both have an 'electoral ceiling' of 26% now. 9% have a different preference but still consider PVV, 8% have a different preference but still consider GL-PvdA.

For a long time NSC was the party with the highest ceiling, but it has decreased substantially since November 7th and without momentum it is unlikely they will gain many of these 12% who still consider NSC but don't have it as a first option.

The VVD could still make a pitch to avoid the 'chaos' of either GL/PvdA or PVV coming first, and I don't completely rule out an effect towards the VVD too, but it's hard to regain momentum in the last day when the media are fixated on a two-horse race between GL/PvdA and PVV. Which is ridiculous and meaningless in a system where all of these parties will get about 20%. Media have a responsibility here which they don't take.



81% now plan on voting 'certainly', compared to 79% last week. This probably means turnout will be around 80% again, perhaps even a little higher.

30% of likely voters are certain of their choice, 59% have a first preference but still consider other options, and another 11% do plan on voting but don't have a preference yet. This has the ingredients for considerable last-day shifts.

30% of D66 voters (i.e. first preference), 23% of PvdD voters and 21% of Volt voters still consider GL-PvdA. 20% of NSC voters, 17% of BBB voters and 13% of VVD (!) voters still consider the PVV. 19% of NSC voters and 14% of PVV voters still consider the VVD. Interesting how the demographic of 'VVD-PVV swing voter' which had been gone since about 2017 is back now.

44% of GL-PvdA voters do so for tactical reasons, 23% of VVD voters, 19% of PVV voters, 19% of the general electorate and 12% of NSC voters.

I&O also polled respondents on the SBS6 debate last week; the results are even more 'pro-PVV' than in the 'flash poll' right after it. I do think this number might be affected by media coverage afterwards creating a bandwagon effect, but still. According to I&O, 66% of those who watched the debate thought Wilders won, 30% thought Omtzigt won, 29% thought Yesilgöz won and 5% thought Timmermans won. 70% thought Timmermans disappointed the most, 9% said so for Yesilgöz, 7% for Omtzigt and 2% for Wilders.

37% say it is high time for a female PM, 43% of women say so and 49% of VVD voters say so. 37% of women say they always vote for a female candidate. However, this is not a reason to switch parties. Only 3% vote for a different party than their first preference to get a female PM. Among current VVD voters - the party with the leader that is most likely to become the first female PM in this election - this is only 5%. Yesilgöz has been very reluctant in pulling the 'woman with migration background' card in this campaign, although this video ("Every generation its own leader", with well-known ex-PMs) hinted at the idea:

https://twitter.com/VVD/status/1726283648192917853?s=20

[DavidB.]

Final I&O poll has PVV on top with 28 seats; GL-PvdA and VVD both at 27:

[crals]

Very surprising to hear that the narrative is suddenly one of a two horse race between Wilders and Timmermans (especially since those two aren't even clearly ahead of the rest of the pack). Omtzigt held a high level of support for a long time despite having a lot going against him, so it really seemed that, unlike BBB, he was going to avoid the usual fate of collapsing once voters get past the projection stage. Oh well.

[DavidB.]

Voters forgave Omtzigt for his indecisiveness many times: on whether or not to start a party, on his list, on the wait before the release of the manifesto, on whether or not to have the financial effects of it calculated. Looks like dodging the PM question was one case too many - in combination with his less spectacular debate performances at the end of the campaign, something he correctly recognized as an Achilles' heel at the start already.

I also do get the feeling that themes regarding immigration, multiculturalism and security received more priority for right-wing voters after 7 October and the subsequent pro-Palestinian protests in the streets and on train stations, which pushed 'security of existence' and 'better governance' (Omtzigt's main themes) into the background a little bit and provided the perfect atmosphere for Wilders' rise.

[Cassius]

Would a strong PVV result make some type of VVD/PvdA-GL/NSC grand coalition more likely? I’m thinking that Omtzigt might get cold feet at the prospect of being part of a minority VVD/NSC/BBB/JA21 coalition with only 55-60 seats or so that would be far more dependant on Wilders’ goodwill than if say that same formulation had 70+ seats (which looked more likely at the start of the campaign)?

[DavidB.]

Would a strong PVV result make some type of VVD/PvdA-GL/NSC grand coalition more likely? I’m thinking that Omtzigt might get cold feet at the prospect of being part of a minority VVD-NSC-BBB-JA21 coalition with only 55-60 seats or so that would be far more dependant on Wilders’ goodwill than if say that same formulation had 70+ seats (which looked more likely at the start of the campaign)?

In my view, a VVD-NSC-BBB minority government, wheeling and dealing with right-wing parties in case by case deals (unlike in 2010-2012, when the PVV was basically a coalition partner without ministers) with an overwhelmingly right-wing parliament, remains the most likely option in any case.

If GL/PvdA come on top, the chances of GL/PvdA-VVD-NSC are slightly higher, but it's really quite difficult both for VVD and NSC. In the end, Timmermans' 'mandate' to form a government if he comes out on top with only 1 or 2 seats more than the second party is quite slim, just as Wilders' 'mandate' would be slim in the same situation. I'm sure Timmermans himself would agree with this logic looking at Spain and Poland.

Omtzigt is the biggest advocate of minority governments in the first place. This is the parliamentary renewal he wants to see. The price he can extract in terms of policy may actually be higher when he's not the biggest; even with Omtzigt at 20 and Wilders at 30, it's almost impossible to find majorities without Omtzigt if you do not want to include Wilders too much. Omtzigt and BBB (the latter because of the Senate) are basically incontournable and BBB's participation makes GL/PvdA's inclusion much more difficult.