🇳🇱 Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: General Election (Nov 22)

[Estrella]

Weirdo intellectual —> leader of a microparty —> (provincial) election winner —> Covid denialist —> Putin simp —> purveyor of Roman Empire themed pyramid schemes —> ?

https://twitter.com/populismupdates/status/1716489022078632015

[Cassius]

Weirdo intellectual —> leader of a microparty —> (provincial) election winner —> Covid denialist —> Putin simp —> purveyor of Roman Empire themed pyramid schemes —> ?

https://twitter.com/populismupdates/status/1716489022078632015

He could at least have replicated the cursus honorum.

[warandwar]

Weirdo intellectual —> leader of a microparty —> (provincial) election winner —> Covid denialist —> Putin simp —> purveyor of Roman Empire themed pyramid schemes —> ?

https://twitter.com/populismupdates/status/1716489022078632015

FvD's stated goal is to essentially re-pillarize - their own media, their own institutions (think Truth Social). Tbh it's not a bad idea if the goal is to keep your MP salary - all you need is like 2% of voters to drink your cool aid and you're set in the Netherlands.

[DavidB.]

Some recent developments:

Politics / warzone
The war in Israel is electoral manna from heaven for DENK. I had previously spoken about their change in strategy under Farid Azarkan - from "Muslim PVV" to "Muslim CDA" in terms of style. Looks like under Van Baarle they're shifting back to the former formula. Undoubtedly smart from an electoral point of view, because they need attention, particularly with a new and unknown leader. On their social media, they posted "This is Palestine" with a map of not just the disputed areas, but also of internationally recognized Israel. In parliament, they said they support the abolishment of Israel and support a "one-state solution" in which the country would be called "Palestine". Van Baarle also ended his Gaza speech with the creed "From the river to the sea...", which led to lots of criticism and accusations of antisemitism from other MPs.

In the end, parliament adopted two motions to say "There is no room for Jew-hatred in Parliament" (only opposed by FVD, who 'oppose any restrictions on free speech in the national assembly') and that "From the river to the sea..." propagates the destruction of the State of Israel and therefore constitutes a call for violence (opposed by SP, GL-PvdA, BIJ1, DENK, Volt, PvdD, D66 and FVD, supported by a majority of VVD, CDA, PVV, CU, BBB, SGP, BVNL, JA21 and Omtzigt). When Sylvana Simons (BIJ1) also tried to say "From the river to the sea...", Speaker Vera Bergkamp (D66) switched off her microphone and said she will not allow this in Parliament anymore.

DENK did not stop here, however, as it published a series of controversial images - all with the addition "Vote DENK - Now is the moment":
- One of them shows Wilders behind bars with the text "Ultra tough punishment for anti-Muslim hatred"...
- ... another one is opposed to Drag Queen Story Hours and Pride Month advertisements by government institutions and big corporations with the text "Shall we act normally again?"
- DENK also wants to chemically castrate p*d*ph*les...
- ... and they attack electoral competitor GL-PvdA and their leader Frans Timmermans on the subject of plastic taxes, sugar taxes, meat taxes and flight taxes: "Don't let yourself be robbed!"

In this political climate, this is probably going to work much better than the moderate line they pushed before.

New poll
Today, I&O published a new poll which only shows small, statistically insignificant shifts. NSC would be the biggest party now, but within the margin of error compared to the VVD.



According to I&O, there is barely any effect for both the war in Israel (only DENK voters would base their vote on this issue), also because voters tend to agree with the positioning of the party they already preferred before the war started. 50% of those who watched the College Tour debate think Omtzigt was the winner, but there is no electoral effect of this debate either.

The graph for certain voters (will vote for party X and don't consider any other option), likely voters (consider multiple options but with party X as first preference) and potential voters (consider multiple options with party X not as first preference) now looks as follows:
. Barely any shifts compared to last time.

The vote is open...
... to Dutch voters living abroad, who received their ballot two days ago and can cast their vote by mail or at any Dutch embassy or consulate abroad. D66 MP Fonda Sahla posted a picture of the ballot from someone who voted for her, which then looks like this:
.
Much more convenient than the massive ballot with all the names on it for voters in the Netherlands.

Most used vote application launched
Today, the most used vote application was launched: the StemWijzer, at www.stemwijzer.nl. Unlike Stemmenchecker and Checkjestem, which I posted here before, StemWijzer is prospective: it takes into account parties' plans for the future, not their actual past behavior. Enjoy.

[Zinneke]

Weirdo intellectual —> leader of a microparty —> (provincial) election winner —> Covid denialist —> Putin simp —> purveyor of Roman Empire themed pyramid schemes —> ?

https://twitter.com/populismupdates/status/1716489022078632015

This reminds me of Laurent Louis's trajectory. The guy was an MR councillor in Nivelles, then defected to peak boomer bourgeois Right formation Parti Populaire, then started towing conspiracy theories about the Dutroux case and Di Rupo, then was kicked out of PP and formed a Dieudonné-Soralien anti-Semitic party Debout les Belges that had members of ISLAM party in it, embezzled funds from several people in that party, then got involved with billionaire cryptoqueen in OneCoin and now is trying to get on an electoral list in France as an MEP.

Behind every right-wing populist there's really just a cheap grift (as opposed to the more sophisticated ones mainstream parties provide).

[JimJamUK]

DENK did not stop here, however, as it published a series of controversial images - all with the addition "Vote DENK - Now is the moment":
- One of them shows Wilders behind bars with the text "Ultra tough punishment for anti-Muslim hatred"...
- ... another one is opposed to Drag Queen Story Hours and Pride Month advertisements by government institutions and big corporations with the text "Shall we act normally again?"
- DENK also wants to chemically castrate p*d*ph*les...
- ... and they attack electoral competitor GL-PvdA and their leader Frans Timmermans on the subject of plastic taxes, sugar taxes, meat taxes and flight taxes: "Don't let yourself be robbed!"

How much do Denk campaign on outright social conservatism (as opposed to hiding behind ‘woke’ rhetoric)?

[DavidB.]

How much do Denk campaign on outright social conservatism (as opposed to hiding behind ‘woke’ rhetoric)?

They didn't do it before, but their messaging seems a lot more explicitly conservative this time, judging by these images. It's smart, because they were at risk of losing part of this demographic to Forum.

[DavidB.]

A chart on parties' % of agreement with each other on the 30 statements in the Stemwijzer.

[Хahar 🤔]

SP being number two for DENK is tremendous content.

[YL]

Splinter is an excellent name for a Dutch political party.

[DavidB.]

FVD leader Thierry Baudet was physically attacked tonight. While he was entering a venue of Ghent University (Belgium) to speak to a conservative student club, a man with an umbrella approached him and hit him on the head. The perpetrator shouted in Ukrainian "no to fascism, no to Putinism". The attack has been widely condemned by politicians from all over the political spectrum.

https://twitter.com/lammert/status/1717612472448720955?s=20
https://twitter.com/MinPres/status/1717632050738413669?s=20

[Harlow]

I just watched a report on the election from NOS and they ran into the lijsttrekker of LEF, who had a tattoo of his party's policies on his arm. LEF was in the top three parties of my StemWijzer result.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I_pNjFzMlBU

[DavidB.]

Peil's latest poll has BBB tumbling further from 11 to 9. NSC gain 3 and get 31, now clearly ahead of VVD and GL-PvdA outside the margin of error. I think BBB is at risk of losing even more voters to NSC. This also means Omtzigt should now be the favorite to win the election.



Of all voters of NSC, GL-PvdA, VVD, PVV and BBB, 47% are positive about the combination NSC-VVD-BBB-PVV. 21% are positive about NSC-VVD-GL/PvdA, 11% about NSC-VVD-GL/PvdA-BBB and only 6% about the impossible combination of all of these parties.

I was surprised De Hond had polled this because of NSC's exclusion of the PVV, but numerically it makes sense. I think these figures show that the PVV has successfully "detoxified" itself to a big segment of non-PVV voters. In the aftermath of the collapse of the Rutte-II government (2012) and the subsequent "Fewer Moroccans" scandal (2014), almost everyone was either completely for or completely against Wilders. This has now changed again - probably thanks a combination of factors: the PVV moderating itself in terms of statements; competitor FVD now being the most radical party; and JA21, BBB, and partially even VVD mainstreaming the anti-immigration position.

Approval of NSC-VVD-BBB-PVV by party:


I still don't think NSC will do this. Their big political group would probably split apart immediately. Their voters seem divided on the issue too.

Approval of NSC-VVD-GL/PvdA by party:


Incredibly low numbers among both VVD and, more interestingly, NSC voters. GL-PvdA are really unpopular with non-left-wing voters. Reason to worry for Timmermans: if he wants to enter the government, it's either this combination or one with BBB, either instead of VVD (but that one is unlikely to win a majority) or in addition to it.

This is why I keep saying it is unlikely GL-PvdA enter the government if they are not the biggest party. The numbers simply do not add up. Any combination of NSC, VVD and BBB without GL-PvdA is far more logical and coherent. Note that BBB is still likely to enter the government even if they end up between 5 and 10 seats. Their 16 Senate seats are needed as Omtzigt brings 0 of those to the table.

[JimJamUK]

Incredibly low numbers among both VVD and, more interestingly, NSC voters. GL-PvdA are really unpopular with non-left-wing voters. Reason to worry for Timmermans: if he wants to enter the government, it's either this combination or one with BBB, either instead of VVD (but that one is unlikely to win a majority) or in addition to it.

Do you think this is attributable to one of the constituent parties being particularly unpopular, both of them being unpopular, or simply because they are left of centre and therefore were never going to appeal to mostly right or centre voters?

[DavidB.]

Do you think this is attributable to one of the constituent parties being particularly unpopular, both of them being unpopular, or simply because they are left of centre and therefore were never going to appeal to mostly right or centre voters?

It is partly the latter point, but that doesn't explain it completely. Something has changed: in 2012, the center-left/left-wing parties (including D66) won almost half of the vote. Since then, on two 'clusters' of issues, it seems the left has lost touch with a chunk of the electorate they could appeal to in the recent past - not on their core issue of economics, but rather on the cluster of issues related to immigration, multiculturalism and identity and on the cluster of issues related to climate, nature, and agriculture. Together with D66, GroenLinks is viewed as the epitome of these stances, to which the PvdA has now tied itself. The PvdA, meanwhile, is still blamed for all of the things that went wrong in the Rutte-II government - so both parties have their baggage.

In addition to all of this, Timmermans' approvals among the general population are at about the same level as Wilders' - deeply under water. A large part of the population view him as an elitist Eurocrat whose mission it is to tell others how to live their lives. His approvals weren't as bad after his first term in the Commission (2014-2019) when he focused on scolding Poland in the name of the rule of law, but the Climate portfolio hurts more in the Netherlands, is more polarizing, and has made him take sides against the Dutch government and the perceived Dutch interest on multiple occasions. Left-wing voters widely view Timmermans as a statesmanlike figure with a very green profile who gets things done - and they could still make GL/PvdA the biggest party. But there is a flipside to this: the 'statesmanlike' factor can also be viewed as arrogance or elitism, the green profile is something many voters do not agree with (or they think he goes too far/too quickly), and the 'getting things done' thing can also be viewed as 'ramming things through against people's will'.

Since leaving the Commission and taking up the GL/PvdA leadership, I think Timmermans has been relatively moderate and has also ditched his rather sharp style for a pivot to the center in a more engaging, but also more vague type of language. It doesn't seem to help his polling numbers. I do expect a left-wing squeeze towards Timmermans at the end of the campaign, at the expense of D66, PvdD and Volt. But they don't seem to appeal to centrist and right-wing voters at all.

[Harlow]

That Peil poll is the highest lead for NSC since its official formation and the first poll with BBB in single digits since May 2022. (Among Peil, Ipsos, and I&O polls)

[DavidB.]

The Kieskompas, which uses a two-dimensional model and places you within it instead of comparing your % of agreement with parties, has now also been launched. The parties motivate their positions with at least one, but sometimes also multiple sources. Filling out your e-mail isn't mandatory, just don't do it. Enjoy.

[kelestian]

The Kieskompas, which uses a two-dimensional model and places you within it instead of comparing your % of agreement with parties, has now also been launched. The parties motivate their positions with at least one, but sometimes also multiple sources. Filling out your e-mail isn't mandatory, just don't do it. Enjoy.

Almost 100% identical to BBB for me. Slightly surprising

[Good Habit]

The Kieskompas, which uses a two-dimensional model and places you within it instead of comparing your % of agreement with parties, has now also been launched.

My results: practically half way between BIJi and GL/PvdA...

[DavidB.]

Almost 100% identical to BBB for me. Slightly surprising

Note that this could be happenstance - this is always the danger of any spatial model. It could be that you landed on this position by answering questions differently from BBB but ended up in the same place. This is why I would always look into the positioning of the parties per question, which Kieskompas allows you to do.

However, based on what I know of your posting history, I don't find this to be too surprising. BBB have become broader than just a farmers' interest party and hold views somewhere between the center-right and the nationalist right 'blocs' of parties.

[Vosem]

Apparently closest to VVD, but there's no one in my general vicinity.

[DavidB.]

Shifts regarding favorability/acceptability of PM candidates tend to be good proxies for where the momentum is going. According to today's 1Vandaag poll, Omtzigt has it. Yesilgöz, Timmermans and particularly Keijzer are losing it. Compared to last month, 58% find Pieter Omtzigt to be an acceptable candidate for PM (+5%). Yesilgöz (44%, -6%) is losing steam, but still considered acceptable by almost half of the voters. Timmermans (33%, -3%) and Keijzer (23%, -16%) are deemed less acceptable - BBB's campaign seems as if it's free-falling.



Note that this poll isn't a poll of 'approval' per se, but specifically of 'acceptability as PM candidate'. The difference matters (particularly for Wilders).

I think we can now safely assume NSC's candidate for PM is indeed Pieter Omtzigt. For a candidate who claims to oppose one-liners in debates, he has had the best ones in this campaign: "De stoel is niet het doel" (the seat is not the goal) regarding his potential Prime Ministership, indicating he may or may not become PM, but in any case it is not his real aim - changing politics is. And yesterday, he said "Those involved in 'function elsewhere' will soon all have a 'function elsewhere'", referring to the VVD, CDA and D66 politicians trying to get rid of Omtzigt during the 2021 formation with this wording, which was revealed when formation notes were leaked. To quote Haagse Insider again: Revenge is a dish best served cold.

Timmermans, on the other hand, isn't doing that great. The anonymous Haagse Insider Twitter account points out Timmermans' mistake: talking about himself, not about his political ideals. Timmermans now says he needs more time for people to get to know him as a person, not just as someone in charge of governing. Haagse Insider says the poll shows this is exactly the wrong approach: people like him more when he talks about what he wants to do than when he talks about who he is.

One thing that probably won't help him: doubling down on highlighting his opposition to nuclear energy, which is nowadays supported by about 2/3rd of society with particularly high support among younger voters. In this clip from yesterday, Timmermans is ridiculing 'the right' for supporting nuclear energy and coming across very badly:

https://twitter.com/palpeet/status/1719086287926268019?s=20

[JimJamUK]

Shifts regarding favorability/acceptability of PM candidates tend to be good proxies for where the momentum is going. According to today's 1Vandaag poll, Omtzigt has it. Yesilgöz, Timmermans and particularly Keijzer are losing it. Compared to last month, 58% find Pieter Omtzigt to be an acceptable candidate for PM (+5%). Yesilgöz (44%, -6%) is losing steam, but still considered acceptable by almost half of the voters. Timmermans (33%, -3%) and Keijzer (23%, -16%) are deemed less acceptable - BBB's campaign seems as if it's free-falling.

What has gone so wrong for BBB? I can understand their core issue disappearing from a previous high point will have hurt their polling a lot, but that shift suggests many potential voters are just being turned off by them.

[DavidB.]

Shifts regarding favorability/acceptability of PM candidates tend to be good proxies for where the momentum is going. According to today's 1Vandaag poll, Omtzigt has it. Yesilgöz, Timmermans and particularly Keijzer are losing it. Compared to last month, 58% find Pieter Omtzigt to be an acceptable candidate for PM (+5%). Yesilgöz (44%, -6%) is losing steam, but still considered acceptable by almost half of the voters. Timmermans (33%, -3%) and Keijzer (23%, -16%) are deemed less acceptable - BBB's campaign seems as if it's free-falling.

What has gone so wrong for BBB? I can understand their core issue disappearing from a previous high point will have hurt their polling a lot, but that shift suggests many potential voters are just being turned off by them.

NSC's candidacy and the idea that the farmers' issues were solved with BBB's participation in almost all provincial governments are the structural factors that would explain their decline. But that isn't the entire story. From a chronological and momentum point of view, everything went south after Van der Plas seemed to walked back the idea of Mona Keijzer having been presented as PM candidate. They had actually gained virtual seats after the presentation and Keijzer was viewed favorably in the polls. But then, in the Op1 talkshow, Van der Plas berated press for 'simplifying' the matter, seemingly rectracting Keijzer's PM candidacy. But it was BBB itself which had clearly used the term 'PM candidate' in Keijzer's presentation. Later, BBB clarified Van der Plas just didn't want to sound arrogant, not as if BBB had some kind of claim on the position of PM - so the idea would be that Keijzer is #2 and would, when asked, be willing to take up the job as PM. A needlessly nuanced, modest way of putting it. In the public view, the lingering idea was that Van der Plas already had some sort of quarrel with Keijzer ('corroborated' with dubious screenshots/stills of Van der Plas not smiling when looking at Keijzer during the show; in my opinion this proves nothing, as everyone can look bad when taking a random screenshot) - which was probably untrue, but perceptions are what they are.

Momentum is a curious thing that can suddenly turn around and they haven't been able to repair the damage, while NSC has presented itself and made no unforced errors in the process: candidate selection, manifesto presentation and Omtzigt's debates have thus far gone smoothly. The BBB policy of 'always say yes to the press' has perhaps also not been the best now that they are in a negative spiral. On the other hand, I understand they want to 'repair' the damage, and fading out of the picture one month before an election also isn't a good idea. So they are stuck between a rock and a hard place and it's difficult to see how they can still turn things around.

However, with their 16 Senate seats and a fragmented political field, they are still in a very strong position to enter the government and steer policy in their direction. With fewer seats, they may also avoid some of the turmoil inevitable to growing very quickly, something Omtzigt will almost certainly still experience. I think they're in a rather good position to find the way up again after the election, but for now things are painful for them.

[Harlow]

Shifts regarding favorability/acceptability of PM candidates tend to be good proxies for where the momentum is going. According to today's 1Vandaag poll, Omtzigt has it. Yesilgöz, Timmermans and particularly Keijzer are losing it. Compared to last month, 58% find Pieter Omtzigt to be an acceptable candidate for PM (+5%). Yesilgöz (44%, -6%) is losing steam, but still considered acceptable by almost half of the voters. Timmermans (33%, -3%) and Keijzer (23%, -16%) are deemed less acceptable - BBB's campaign seems as if it's free-falling.

What has gone so wrong for BBB? I can understand their core issue disappearing from a previous high point will have hurt their polling a lot, but that shift suggests many potential voters are just being turned off by them.

NSC's candidacy and the idea that the farmers' issues were solved with BBB's participation in almost all provincial governments are the structural factors that would explain their decline. But that isn't the entire story. From a chronological and momentum point of view, everything went south after Van der Plas seemed to walked back the idea of Mona Keijzer having been presented as PM candidate. They had actually gained virtual seats after the presentation and Keijzer was viewed favorably in the polls. But then, in the Op1 talkshow, Van der Plas berated press for 'simplifying' the matter, seemingly rectracting Keijzer's PM candidacy. But it was BBB itself which had clearly used the term 'PM candidate' in Keijzer's presentation. Later, BBB clarified Van der Plas just didn't want to sound arrogant, not as if BBB had some kind of claim on the position of PM - so the idea would be that Keijzer is #2 and would, when asked, be willing to take up the job as PM. A needlessly nuanced, modest way of putting it. In the public view, the lingering idea was that Van der Plas already had some sort of quarrel with Keijzer ('corroborated' with dubious screenshots/stills of Van der Plas not smiling when looking at Keijzer during the show; in my opinion this proves nothing, as everyone can look bad when taking a random screenshot) - which was probably untrue, but perceptions are what they are.

Momentum is a curious thing that can suddenly turn around and they haven't been able to repair the damage, while NSC has presented itself and made no unforced errors in the process: candidate selection, manifesto presentation and Omtzigt's debates have thus far gone smoothly. The BBB policy of 'always say yes to the press' has perhaps also not been the best now that they are in a negative spiral. On the other hand, I understand they want to 'repair' the damage, and fading out of the picture one month before an election also isn't a good idea. So they are stuck between a rock and a hard place and it's difficult to see how they can still turn things around.

However, with their 16 Senate seats and a fragmented political field, they are still in a very strong position to enter the government and steer policy in their direction. With fewer seats, they may also avoid some of the turmoil inevitable to growing very quickly, something Omtzigt will almost certainly still experience. I think they're in a rather good position to find the way up again after the election, but for now things are painful for them.

Based on De Avondshow met Arjen Lubach, which I have been watching clips of on Youtube mainly to get a sense of how the campaign is being talked about from a Daily Show-esque perspective, van der Plas is also being critiqued for her lackluster performance in the first debate, sounding inexperienced and idealistic in interviews, and not having a plan for how to pay for her proposals.

From a populist perspective, I think there will still be a core who will vote for BBB because of her lack of political experience and her seemingly "woman of the people" rhetoric. But I think it's easy to see why voters have moved onto other options, especially with the formation of NSC.