🇳🇱 Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: General Election (Nov 22)

[DavidB.]

A nice boost for GL-PvdA regardless of what happens next. No one likes party infighting two months before an election.

Yup, 100%. This might just be what GL-PvdA needed to be the biggest party. Although I suspect that there will be not much damage if Ouwehand returns from this, which I expect; she could even win a sympathy boost out of it. But if Ouwehand goes, PvdD are toast. Even if Thieme were to take over again, this is a bad look, unless they really have something on Ouwehand.

[Cassius]

I look forward to the Guardian pronouncing a progressive triumph when GL-PvDA come first in a crowded field with 27 seats and 17% of the vote.

[DavidB.]

Apparently, Esther Ouwehand had sent a very critical letter to the board yesterday, which is now public. In it, she decries a lack of professionalism in the board, the continuous sabotage of her work, and the opposition to any change Ouwehand wanted to bring. She reveals that the board had wanted her to "lead all elected local PvdD leaders into opposition" after the local election in 2022; instead, this became the first time after which some municipal PvdD chapters entered local government. Ouwehand also attributes her burn-out at the end of 2022, when she left parliament for 4 months, to her treatment by the board, and says she was "undermined slanderously" when she returned.

Today, Ouwehand also published a public statement in response to the board's allegations. She claims she had never heard anything about her integrity being compromised before today, and she essentially concludes these allegations are purely the consequence of her sending out this letter to the board. It's hard not to agree with this impression. She says she wants to stay on as leading candidate.

https://twitter.com/fonslambie/status/1700535696342077828

Meanwhile, NRC Handelsblad confirm there have recently been tensions between the party board and Ouwehand on ideological grounds. The board would particularly be opposed to Ouwehand embracing climate group Extinction Rebellion, known for blocking highway A12 on multiple instances.

MP Christine Teunissen, also head of the commission that wrote the party manifesto, has expressed full support for Ouwehand, and so did multiple provincial and local factions. I can only see this end with Ouwehand returning as party leader. The only question is how many PvdD elected officials would split off and how nasty things are still going to get.

[Zinneke]

I look forward to the Guardian pronouncing a progressive triumph when GL-PvDA come first in a crowded field with 27 seats and 17% of the vote.

Or when the Times crowns Baudet as kingmaker with his measely 2 seats even though he got beat by an animal rights party

Oh wait that already happened...

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/anti-eu-boy-wonder-breezes-in-as-dutch-election-kingmaker-9p8n0sqhq

[Хahar 🤔]

The PvdD want to reduce the number of cattle in the Netherlands by 75% in two (!) years (apparently the government doesn't have to be a trustworthy partner to farmers)

Would this not involve killing an enormous number of animals?

[Mike88]

The PvdD want to reduce the number of cattle in the Netherlands by 75% in two (!) years (apparently the government doesn't have to be a trustworthy partner to farmers)

Would this not involve killing an enormous number of animals?

[DavidB.]

The PvdD have 6 seats and only Teunissen immediately came to Ouwehand’s support. The other four MPs remained silent - until this morning. They all published their own version of a weaksauce statement which contains the elements that everyone is innocent until proven guilty, the situation “confuses” them, allegations into supposed breach of integrity should be “looked into carefully”, and everyone should continue supporting the party because animals are suffering (an argument the PvdD board has used to silence critics before, then worded as “the animals are crying”). In other words: they are on the side of the board but don’t want to say so, because they haven’t read the room enough to realize that their entire base supports Ouwehand (looking at Twitter responses, they are currently finding out about it) but they have read it enough to realize they can’t voice open support for the board. One of the four MPs, Lammert van Raan, is married to board member Lieke Keller.

[DavidB.]

Things are getting even more heated now in the PvdD.

Ouwehand received a public letter of support from 185 politically active PvdD members: 23 (out of 29) municipal PvdD leaders, 15 (out of 16) PvdD leaders on the water boards, 5 leaders of the Provincial PvdD groups, 7 leaders of provincial PvdD chapters, 7 board members of the youth organization, 56 local councillors and staffers, 21 members of the Provincial States and staffers, 15 members of the water boards and committee members, 15 local board members, 3 staffers in Parliament, and 18 "others". They demand the board to resign.

Later today, 13 out of 20 staffers in Parliament wrote another letter to support Ouwehand.

Yesterday, Nieuwsuur presented leaked notes (sent in an e-mail in July) of an Ouwehand staffer sending her scenarios to get rid of the board member Ouwehand is in conflict with - by now everybody knows this board member is Elze Boshart, one of the party's founders. The notes were extremely detailed and discussed various scenarios, including names of people Ouwehand apparently trusts. Why one would ever write such explosive information in an e-mail is beyond me, but it proves that the relations between the board had soured for quite a while already.

When cornered by journalists, MP Frank Wassenberg today expressed support for Ouwehand too - important, because this makes 50% of the parliamentary group. I haven't heard Eva van Esch say these words (EDIT: I'm reading now she also said she doesn't want to be on the list without Ouwehand leading it... hard to keep up), but she looked visibly uncomfortable with the state of affairs and the behavior of the board.

Van Raan evidently supports the board and so does Vestering; by now it is also clear that Leonie Vestering is the MP Ouwehand had a conflict with, and in fact, Vestering herself went on sick leave because of these soured relations earlier this year. I think it is likely the board intended (intends?) to appoint her as new party leader coming Thursday. However, things are getting more difficult for the board now, and I am unsure Vestering will want to stick her head out for this. EDIT: Apparently I missed that Vestering announced she will leave parliament this afternoon, and will do so directly.

[DL]

Things are getting even more heated now in the PvdD.

People who love animals so much often seem to have serious issues when with dealing with human beings

[DavidB.]

People who love animals so much often seem to have serious issues when with dealing with human beings

This is more the norm than the exception in Dutch politics though. From BIJ1 to FVD and from CDA to JA21 to DENK, they've all had big internal conflicts over the last few years.

[DavidB.]

The PvdD board will resign and Ouwehand will be nominated as leading candidate. The board says it still stands behind its choice and doesn't find Ouwehand to be a suitable leader, but only makes these far-reaching decisions because of "all the commotion".

On its way out, the board will still compose the draft list for the upcoming election, however. They could make a list including people hostile to Ouwehand. The board will also name the people of the interim board, who are also likely to be close to the founders.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Things are getting even more heated now in the PvdD.

People who love animals so much often seem to have serious issues when with dealing with human beings

I think it's astonishing that they've avoided such a blow up for so long - they've been around for a decade with essentially very little drama. By contrast, Volt lasted what - a year in the spotlight before self destructing?

Has thieme herself commented?

[DL]

People who love animals so much often seem to have serious issues when with dealing with human beings

This is more the norm than the exception in Dutch politics though. From BIJ1 to FVD and from CDA to JA21 to DENK, they've all had big internal conflicts over the last few years.

I'm aware of that - I'm just amused at how a single issue party that is all about love of animals could be torn apart with vicious fratricidal conflict. The Green party in Canada imploded two years ago and someone wrote "Greens love animals, forests, lakes and trees - they just don't seem to like people very much"

[DavidB.]

Forum for Democracy issued a press statement announcing a press conference tomorrow at 5PM for their list and manifesto. They are describing the long road of the party and talking about the organization entering the "next phase". They heavily imply someone else than Baudet will be their leading candidate ("our new manifesto and our new list and leading candidate"). Baudet is hardly in love with the job as MP, so it cannot be ruled out completely, but I believe it when I see it. For now I'm betting on this being a stunt to create some media buzz around them.

https://twitter.com/fvdemocratie/status/1701963335854338250

I think it's astonishing that they've avoided such a blow up for so long - they've been around for a decade with essentially very little drama. By contrast, Volt lasted what - a year in the spotlight before self destructing?

Has thieme herself commented?

They've been around for two decades, even. Failed to get elected in 2003, got elected in 2006. Turns out the issue we've discussed in this thread before - coalition building or not - is one of the key points of disagreement.

Thieme hasn't commented and stays outside the limelight, but it is widely understood that she supports the board and not Ouwehand. They tried to push out Ouwehand in 2010 already, but she won #2 back with the help of the membership.

In the category "oops", #1: Pieter Omtzigt had appointed Onno Aerden as his new spokesman. Then, the internet found out he had called BBB a "tumor that destroys democracy from within" earlier this year. A few hours later, Omtzigt had said goodbye to him. "Shortest The Hague career ever, unfortunately", Aerden responded.

In the category "oops", #2: D66 had presented columnist Yesim Candan as #11. Turns out she had called Sigrid Kaag a "witch" in the column And there Kaag flies away, on her broom and D66 an "elitist party showing a selective understanding of the freedom of speech" before. Hardly a secret, as she had written this publicly. Apparently no one does any vetting anymore, or this suddenly became an issue internally after the media fuss about it even though they did actually know about it. In any case, Candan is out too.

EDIT: Turns out Candan had applied for the list for the municipal elections in Amsterdam in 2018... for Forum for Democracy. The wonderful world of Dutch politics never fails to disappoint this season.

[DavidB.]

Forum for Democracy issued a press statement announcing a press conference tomorrow at 5PM for their list and manifesto. They are describing the long road of the party and talking about the organization entering the "next phase". They heavily imply someone else than Baudet will be their leading candidate ("our new manifesto and our new list and leading candidate"). Baudet is hardly in love with the job as MP, so it cannot be ruled out completely, but I believe it when I see it. For now I'm betting on this being a stunt to create some media buzz around them.

Called it. Baudet will be #1, but with this stunt FVD attracted way more media attention than they would have done otherwise. Incumbent MPs Freek Jansen, Gideon van Meijeren and Pepijn van Houwelingen follow him on the list, with former MP Ralf Dekker at #5. Current MP Simone Kerseboom will not continue as she will be focusing on her family.

[Harlow]

Worst poll for D66 since 2008, apparently. PvdD haven't taken a hit yet but the timeframe may be missing most of this week's chaos.

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1702923359967731878?s=20

[jeron]

New poll by peil shows NSC losing 1 seat and VVD and BBB losing two seats each while PVV gains two and PvdAGL gajn one. PvdD lose one which may be due to their internal struggles.
The BBB campaign seems to be losing steam and Mona Keijzer is getting less popular. In a three way contest voters prefer both Yesilgoz and Timmermans and even 30 percent of BBB voters prefer Yesilgoz over Keijzer as prime minister.

With current polling we could well end up with a coalition of NSC and PvdA/GL, but of course they would still need several other parties to get to a majority.

[DavidB.]

In a crazy turn of events, Esther Ouwehand was elected #1 on the list with 96% of PvdD voters rejecting a motion to scrap her from the list - and then decided to resign again, pending the investigation which is still ongoing, as she wants her name to be cleared. From what I'm reading she's expected to be back before the election, though, and lead the list. Can't keep up with the details, though. Such a confusing soap.

As for the polls: I still expect something along the lines of a NSC-VVD-BBB minority coalition with only a small coalition agreement and much more room for parliament. I don't think NSC+GL/PvdA is an impossible combination per se, but I don't see how they get (close) to 76. I also expect the VVD to gain some steam in the campaign and for NSC to take some hits - at some point Omtzigt will have to launch his full manifesto and candidate list too.

[DavidB.]

Pieter Omtzigt's New Social Contract (NSC) will run in the entire country. He has presented his list and it is remarkably strong. Former CDA MP and Omtzigt confidant Nicolien van Vroonhoven is #2, judge Judith Uitermark #3, former Dutch career diplomat and ambassador (first to Israel, then to Greece) and EBRD member of the board of directors Caspar Veldkamp #4, and legal expert and early warner about the childcare benefit scandal Sandra Palmen #5.

Other notable names are former CDA MP Eddy van Hijum at #6, former CDA MP Wytske Postma at #11, former VVD MP Folkert Idsinga at #13, well-known NRC columnist and PhD in microbiology Rosanne Hertzberger at #17, and CDA Amsterdam leader Diederik Boomsma at #21. The top 10, top 20 and top 30 all have man/woman parity. The full list can be found here.

[DL]

Is NSC basically a reincarnation of the CDA - which looks to be roadkill after this election? The NSC list looks to be mostly ex-CDA people 

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1707083923757437375?t=z_OGvHe81eTk81Ma_K...

What we put the odds of a big party "grand coalition" between Omtzigt, GL/PvdA, and VVD? Cause unless something dramatic happens that is guaranteed mathematically viable. It would be the type of deal totally in keeping with the history of Dutch coalitions just going for the simplest option that doesn't bother with the lesser (and no testimonial) parties.

[DavidB.]

Wild differences between the I&O and Ipsos polls, particularly on the GL/PvdA vs. D66 numbers, which cannot be explained by statistical noise. Either they're going to herd or one of them will end up having egg on its face.

What we put the odds of a big party "grand coalition" between Omtzigt, GL/PvdA, and VVD? Cause unless something dramatic happens that is guaranteed mathematically viable. It would be the type of deal totally in keeping with the history of Dutch coalitions just going for the simplest option that doesn't bother with the least  (and no testimonial) parties.

As you said, this is the Netherlands with its culture of political compromises, so we definitely cannot rule it out (although note that there was never a coalition of all of CDA/PvdA/VVD together). NSC-GL/PvdA should be a workable combination. But GL/PvdA-VVD gets more tricky.

If GL/PvdA are the biggest party in this combination, the VVD would essentially be seen as caving to the left for the third consecutive time and lose a lot of right-wing voters; note that the VVD electorate in this election is likely to be more right-wing than the electorate in 2021 and 2017. After a classic right-wing VVD campaign, a coalition with GL/PvdA would feel like a broken promise. In terms of policy, it is unlikely the VVD would achieve the desired changes in immigration policy with GL/PvdA, which means they would have caused the previous coalition to collapse for nothing.

If the VVD are the biggest party in this combination, the PvdA would essentially do the exact thing as in 2012: enter a coalition with the very party they view as responsible for most of the problems in the country - as a junior partner, no less. To the PvdA, this is an open wound; in 2017, they went from 38 to 9 seats because of it and they never fully recovered. On the doorstep, voters continue to name the Rutte-II coalition as a reason not to vote for the PvdA anymore. GL/PvdA would be very keen on avoiding a repeat edition.

The only way both problems would be mitigated (but not solved completely) is if NSC become the biggest party - or if they don't, but they get to appoint the Prime Minister anyway.

I think a minority coalition with VVD, NSC and BBB remains the likeliest option because they simply agree a lot more on policy and with Rutte out of the way, the biggest obstacle to NSC-VVD cooperation is also gone. The only problem arises when GL/PvdA become the biggest party or when this three party combination receives too few seats (let's say fewer than 65), so that they would have to count on too many other parties to get anything done.

[Cassius]

Curious to see what happens to the CDA after the election - from what I can tell Bontenbal and the party’s present platform are vaguely leftish (with emphasis on the ‘ish’). Could there be a link up with the CU at some point to avoid total irrelevance?

[DavidB.]

Curious to see what happens to the CDA after the election - from what I can tell Bontenbal and the party’s present platform are vaguely leftish (with emphasis on the ‘ish’). Could there be a link up with the CU at some point to avoid total irrelevance?

Bontenbal gives off very CU vibes indeed. Currently the CDA are still in the stage of "this election we're losing, but the next one will be different, we promise!" Eventually this level of cope will run out together with their seats, though. If they don't find the way up within a few years, they may want to engage in "closer cooperation" with CU indeed.

The question is, however, whether CU would want this. Mergers usually only happen when both/all parties involved are in a negative spiral. The CU aren't doing all that badly right now and have a good long-term perspective. Will they want to tie themselves to the CDA's legacy of corruption, nepotism and bullying? Questionable. This is definitely one to keep an eye on in the coming period, though.

[DavidB.]

One thing that hasn't been mentioned in this thread yet: the recent developments surrounding the PVV. As opposition leader, Wilders was the first speaker again at the most important debate of the year, and he used it to present himself as both the ultimate insider (after the election he will be the longest sitting MP, his MPs mostly have a lot of experience, and this position gives the PVV power and status) and outsider, attacking Sigrid Kaag. His audience clearly appreciated it, as he rose in all polls and now seems to be above his GE21 level - a remarkable feat given the rise of competitors NSC and BBB.

Interestingly, Wilders also attacked FVD leader Baudet, perhaps for the first time. He interrupted Baudet, asking Baudet whether he could rebuke "rumors" (i.e. his own statements) that 9/11 was an inside job and that the moon landing in 1969 had never happened. Baudet of course responded elaborately that he does indeed think the official 9/11 story is extremely unlikely and that the moon landing never happened, although he doesn't claim to know what did happen. Wilders then only said Baudet is "already halfway to the moon", which of course became a video everyone has seen by now.

Afterwards, the problems started for the PVV, though, and it's doubtful whether the last polls have taken this into account already. It started with education spokesman MP Harm Beertema, in parliament since 2010, who rejected spot #16 on the list, said this offer does not show a sufficient level of appreciation, and will be waving parliament goodbye after November.

Then, an internal quarrel broke out over an FVD motion to ban "puberty blockers" and other hormone therapy for children identifying as transgender. FVD are a full-fledged conservative party on issues like these, but the PVV aren't - outgoing MP Harm Beertema spilled the tea on Twitter, saying healthcare spokeswoman Fleur Agema had banned him from speaking his mind on transgender surgeries on children, as Agema thinks it is "clever surgery". Agema later confirmed herself that she thinks this way. "Some children are simply born in the wrong body. You need to treat them before they enter puberty, otherwise it is too late", she said. However, she also said she had not tried to silence Beertema.

Eventually, the PVV parliamentary group split on the issue, with 13 MPs (including Wilders) supporting the motion to ban hormone blockers and 3 MPs (Agema, her partner Leon de Jong, and Madlener) against. The motion was rejected with 28 votes for (all present members of FVD, SGP, JA21, BVNL and DENK, the 13 PVV MPs, and 2 out of 4 BBB MPs: the former JA21 MPs Pouw-Verweij and Eppink) and 111 against (including CDA, CU and Omtzigt).

Apart from the departure of Harm Beertema and Danai van Weerdenburg, the PVV list is very unsurprising: as always, there are few changes, which means the PVV parliamentary group will be even more experienced compared to their colleagues in the next term. #3 Rachel van Meetelen is the exception: she has no political background and is an entrepreneur as a baker of little Dutch pancakes (poffertjes) at travelling funfairs in the Netherlands. A very interesting choice. In any case, Beertema's departure and the quarrel surrounding the transgender-related motion completely overshadowed their presentation of the list. Beertema has also announced he will publish a book critical of the PVV. Wonder whether it will be launched before the election: that could be publicity the PVV very much don't need, especially in a time in which it seemed they had everything going for them.