🇳🇱 Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: General Election (Nov 22)

[DavidB.]

He says he has a manifesto, but no candidate list, but has until Oct 8th for it. More news to follow.

honest question: how will he possibly recruit and vet a full slate of serious candidates in just 49 days? has there been any speculation/discussion in Dutch media about this? Because he's basically starting from scratch here and it's not like he has an existing network of party activists to recruit from.

It is unclear. Omtzigt himself has said he does not want to become "too big" as he "has learned from LPF and Forum for Democracy", which grew too quickly and then imploded.

The media are absolutely paying attention to it. Today, NRC published this article (ChatGPT can probably translate it quite well), in which the option of running in only a number of electoral districts is explored. Two political scientists note how remarkable Omtzigt's message really is: "vote for me, but not everybody, please".

[Harlow]

He says he has a manifesto, but no candidate list, but has until Oct 8th for it. More news to follow.

honest question: how will he possibly recruit and vet a full slate of serious candidates in just 49 days? has there been any speculation/discussion in Dutch media about this? Because he's basically starting from scratch here and it's not like he has an existing network of party activists to recruit from.

It is unclear. Omtzigt himself has said he does not want to become "too big" as he "has learned from LPF and Forum for Democracy", which grew too quickly and then imploded.

The media are absolutely paying attention to it. Today, NRC published this article (ChatGPT can probably translate it quite well), in which the option of running in only a number of electoral districts is explored. Two political scientists note how remarkable Omtzigt's message really is: "vote for me, but not everybody, please".

From that article:

Voters may vote anywhere in the Netherlands, provided they apply for a voter's pass in advance. This already happens during holiday periods, when people want to vote for their holiday destination. On November 22, Omtzigt fans could then, for example, drive to Overijssel from other places to vote for him there. “It is possible, but it may be a bit theoretical,” says Van den Braak.

This is an absurd set-up, to have your list of candidates based on where you happen to be voting and not on permanent residence.

[Zinneke]

 I think Omzigt joining in is much more existentially worse for CDA than it is for BBB. BBB are probably also comfortable not growing too fast. CDA are gonna just be another testimonial throwback party soon.

[Oryxslayer]

Timmermans was approved to lead the PvdA-GL list earlier today by a overwhelmingly positive party member vote.

[DavidB.]

Timmermans was approved to lead the PvdA-GL list earlier today by a overwhelmingly positive party member vote.

And it has been revealed that the name of the list will be GroenLinks-PvdA.

[Harlow]

First polling after the formation of NSC. Table from I&O Research:



NSC: 31 seats
GL/PvdA: 28
VVD: 22
PVV: 13
BBB: 13
PvdD: 8
D66: 7
SP: 5
CU: 4
SGP: 4
CDA: 3 (lol)
FvD: 3
Volt: 3
JA21: 3
DENK: 3
50+: 0
BIJ1: 0
BVNL: 0

This is of course assuming Omtzigt does nothing to limit his party's maximum number of seats they can win.

[DavidB.]

Let's act as if we have a normal party system. We lump BBB and NSC in with CDA. JA21, PVV and FVD are one party. PvdD and SP are also one party. And we shamelessly call GL part of the PvdA.

Then you get: CDA 47, PvdA 28, VVD 22, right of VVD 19, left of PvdA 13, D66 7, small Christian left 4, SGP 4, one issue party (DENK) 3, another one issue party (Volt) 3.

Actually a result with a reasonable amount of similarity to the actual results in the 80s. The only major difference: PvdA (and the entire left) clearly lower and the nationalist right clearly up.

The Christian Democratic pole in the center is by far the biggest and it can choose as its partner between the liberal right (VVD, although no majority here so D66 or parts of nationalist right would be required) or the social democratic left (PvdA), as it has been in most of our post-war history.

If you look beyond party names, this is actually a reversal to the mean - the only exceptions were the Purple era and the Rutte era.

[Mike88]

This question may have already been answered but, what's Omtzigt appeal? I mean, the guy had been flirting with the idea of running or creating a party for a long time, and now that he has created one, he doesn't confirm if he will file the maximum number of candidates for MPs and doesn't want to be Prime Minister. Is there a possibility of Omtzigt having the same fate of BBB, its "15 minutes of fame" and then starting to fell as the novelty effect ends?

[CumbrianLefty]

That has to be possible, yes.

Though the fact he is being "realistic" in his aspirations may increase the appeal to some.

[DavidB.]

Speaker Vera Bergkamp (D66) has announced she will not run for Parliament again. She was controversial because of her role in the investigation of former popular Speaker Khadija Arib (PvdA) on harassment charges (which some deem questionable), for her indecisive leadership in debates where alleged boundaries were crossed, and for the politically motivated way she was likely promoted to the job in the first place - i.e. the job was offered to her as part of the VVD's atoning sacrifice to convince Sigrid Kaag to form a coalition including Mark Rutte.

Kees van der Staaij, SGP leader and "constitutional conscience" of Parliament, will also say farewell after a 25-year stint in Parliament. He modernized the SGP but also stuck to the party's ideological core in a time of increased political fragmentation, in which the party suddenly found itself in a position of increased political significance. He will be succeeded as leader by Chris Stoffer, MP since 2018.

Meanwhile, the JA21 implosion continues. Two out of the party's three MEPs and four former Members of the Provincial States (among which three provincial leaders) have quit the party - in an open letter, they say Annabel Nanninga's candidacy for Parliament proves the party leadership stands above the internal rules, which in turn proves that the party's democratization and professionalization process has failed. Earlier, two out of the three MPs, Eppink and Pouw-Verweij, had refused to stand for Parliament for JA21 again. All of these people are deemed to be part of the conservative faction of the party.

This question may have already been answered but, what's Omtzigt appeal? I mean, the guy had been flirting with the idea of running or creating a party for a long time, and now that he has created one, he doesn't confirm if he will file the maximum number of candidates for MPs and doesn't want to be Prime Minister. Is there a possibility of Omtzigt having the same fate of BBB, its "15 minutes of fame" and then starting to fell as the novelty effect ends?

Omtzigt's appeal is that he has a credible record in standing up for people who have been marginalized by the government machinery, and that he is incredibly tenacious in his questioning of the government regardless of whether his party is in coalition or in opposition.

On the one hand, every party that grows too big too quick has a problem. If Omtzigt wins 31 seats, 30 MPs won't be Omtzigt, which is always going to pose a risk. On the other hand, Omtzigt's personal popularity is enormous; his approvals are sky-high across the board. He is undoubtedly set to disappoint people once his positions on certain contentious issues (climate, agriculture, immigration) become clearer or when his party has to make compromises in government, but his appeal isn't based on one issue (such as BBB, arguably) and the two themes around which he focuses his campaign, better governance and improving people's livelihood, are broad, classic Christian Democratic, and not easily fixed. One former CDA member called it "the liberation of Christian Democracy from the shackles of the CDA party" and that's an interesting perspective.

[DavidB.]

Peil.nl/De Hond also has a new poll - with NSC, for the first time - and interesting voter flow charts.

The poll



Same picture as I&O, but VVD a little higher and PvdA/GL a little lower. Interesting, because De Hond always used to have quite a negative house effect for the VVD and tended to overpoll "populist" parties - but this could in fact be his weighing of a group that cares a lot about immigration and has now returned to the VVD.

Digging deeper, 28% of all voters would vote for NSC or BBB and another 20% consider to vote for either or both of them. In this figure, "double counts" (NSC voters who consider BBB and vice versa) are already eliminated.

De Hond then looks at the three biggest winners (NSC, BBB, PvdA/GL) and the three biggest losers (CDA, D66, VVD) compared to GE21. Values are expressed in terms of seats.

The winners



This chart shows where NSC gains come from - and the answer is: pretty much everywhere, but more from the center-right (the VVD and D66 figures surprise me) and the right. Note that you don't see BBB and JA21 here because these parties didn't win so many seats in GE21 yet, although I suspect among the high figure for "Andere Partij" (other party) there should be a lot of JA21 voters in 2021. But most (former) JA21/BBB voters came from VVD/CDA/PVV only after GE21. Many of these voters have now moved on to NSC, but not from all parties equally, as we will see further on.



BBB are still set to gain 13 seats. It is interesting to see that they have lost a lot of CDA->BBB voters to NSC, while VVD->BBB and PVV->BBB voters tend to stick around more. Compared to GE21, BBB now gain the most from VVD and PVV, not from the CDA anymore. This is the first time we see this and it probably has to do with the more right-wing profile of BBB compared to NSC.

These former VVD voters sticking around for BBB are probably the ones in more rural areas. Assuming Omtzigt runs everywhere, I think NSC's electoral performance will be rather similar across the country (but with a peak in Twente, where Omtzigt is from, and potentially in "populist" areas) while BBB's result will be more periphery-based than in the PS election.


GL-PvdA (here erroneously called PvdA-GL) are the third biggest winner according to this poll. They manage to retain nearly all PvdA and GL voters in 2021, proving that there are barely any voters who are turned off because of the merger.

The remainder of their gains comes largely from D66, who had "borrowed" a lot of left-liberal swing voters when they won 24 seats in 2021 but were always likely to support the "winner" within the left-liberal bloc; PvdA in 2010 and 2012, D66/GL in 2017 and D66 in 2021. They also win 3 seats among former non-voters and 2 seats from other parties, likely PvdD, Volt and SP.

However, there is barely any appeal to center-right or nationalist right voters: almost all of the gains come from the left-liberal bloc. This will make it difficult for GL-PvdA to become the biggest party, as it looks like they are close to their electoral ceiling already. It looks like the number of voters who even consider to vote for the left has substantially decreased compared to 2012, when the PvdA won 38 seats and the left/progressive parties in total 71 seats.

The losers

The flow charts for the three biggest losers - CDA, D66 and VVD - are even more interesting because they show where these voters went in three sequences: GE21, the time of the Provincial election earlier this year (PS23), and the current poll. Note that the value for PS23 reflects the hypothetical poll for parliament at the time and not the actual vote in the PS23 election, but the two were almost identical.



This chart clearly shows the CDA has lost its voters in two sequences: first, they lost about half of their GE21 voters in PS23, most substantially to BBB. Then, they lost another third or so of the remaining voters, mostly to NSC. Many CDA GE21 -> BBB PS23 voters have also moved to NSC.



D66 immediately lost a lot of voters to PvdA/GL after Sigrid Kaag entered a government with Rutte again, clearly a move which many didn't think was in line with her promise of "new leadership". After their bad PS23 result and the presentation of Timmermans' candidacy, they lost even more voters to the combined left list.

However, also note that out of the 24 seats D66 won in 2021, there is a net transfer of 5 seats to NSC (4) and BBB (1), parties outside the left-progressive bloc. If the left-progressive bloc as a whole do worse than in 2021, these voters may be a big part of the explanation. My assumption is that many of them - at least the ones moving to NSC - think of themselves as centrist ("the reasonable alternative", as the D66 slogan once was) or value "statesmanship", which they saw both in Kaag and now in Omtzigt. D66's increasingly polarizing style (which Kaag herself didn't engage in so much) tends to turn such voters off.



In PS23, the VVD lost a lot of voters compared to GE21. Now, they are set to win a lot of them back. I think De Hond absolutely should have included non-voters in this chart, as the VVD actually tends to lose most voters in second order elections because of abstention; think of an average Dutch person not very interested in politics with a busy life, but who will vote for Rutte in the general election because of statesmanship/he is normal/we're not doing that badly/all the others are worse.

In any case, it is clear the VVD causing the government to collapse over the theme of asylum and immigration doesn't seem to hurt them and actually helps gaining back right-wing voters. They gain a total of 4 seats from JA21 and BBB voters in PS23 who voted VVD in 2021. "Don't knows" also tend to be strong for the VVD, which has become somewhat of the "default option" under Rutte. It is also clear that the leadership change to Yesilgöz has widely been received well (the I&O poll also had her favorabilities the highest of all party leaders, after Omtzigt). Their non-exclusion of the PVV probably also helps attract anti-immigration voters, especially now that JA21 are imploding.

I expect Yesilgöz to focus heavily on security, asylum, and immigration; the VVD result will end up lower (about 20 seats) if they don't succeed in setting the campaign agenda on these themes and higher (about 30) if they do. They will mostly be competing with BBB and PVV for these voters. A two-horse race with GL/PvdA doesn't seem so likely anymore, however, which decreases both parties' potential and benefits NSC/BBB.

[DavidB.]

The SP has presented its provisional list for the election. Three new faces in the top-10: two assistants in parliament, Sarah Dobbe (#6) and Bastiaan Meijer (#10), and a former alderman in Zutphen, Mathijs ten Broeke, at #8. The SP's most important loss is popular former MP Renske Leijten, known for her work on the childcare benefits scandal, who quit her job a month before the government collapsed. She will still be at #50 on the list - ending rumors about a transfer to her partner in crime Pieter Omtzigt's NSC - but is unlikely to take up her seat if elected.

A surprise: Jasper van Dijk, the SP's spokesman on immigration and foreign affairs, is at #9 only, which is probably an unelectable position. Van Dijk's legacy is a shift into a less "activist left" direction: he is very critical of labour migration and also pushed the party in a more pro-NATO, pro-Ukraine direction, which would have been unimaginable under his predecessors Sadet Karabulut and Harry van Bommel. Unsure whether his low position is his own choice (he's been in parliament since 2006) or the consequence of the necessity of renewal. In any case, the SP's continuous downward trend in the polls (currently about 5 seats, compared to 9 in 2021 and 14 in 2017) doesn't help.

[DavidB.]

BBB, JA21, PVV
BBB have just announced that former CDA Deputy Minister of Economic Affairs Mona Keijzer will be their candidate for Prime Minister and #2 on the list. In addition, they announced that MPs Lilian Helder (PVV), Nicki Pouw-Verweij (JA21), and Derk Jan Eppink (JA21) are making a direct transfer to them and will be on the list for parliament at #5, #9 and #19 respectively - in the spirit of Deadline Day, here we go confirmed. This is big in their competition for right-wing voters with Omtzigt's NSC as well as with the VVD. It addresses the doubts about Van der Plas' candidacy for PM quite strongly. Also devastating for JA21, who are left with one MP only, Joost Eerdmans.

VVD
Meanwhile, the VVD have presented their draft election manifesto "Providing Space. Setting Limits" ("Ruimte Geven. Grenzen Stellen", the latter part of which also means "erecting a border" or "a boundary" and evidently refers to immigration too), focusing heavily on the subject of limiting immigration. The VVD want to renegotiate the Refugee Convention, focus on deals with third countries, and request the same opt-out as Denmark if all of this fails when the EU Treaties are renegotiated.

Most eye-catching points right now: their own Asylum & Immigration Deputy Minister Van der Burg's initiative to forcefully redistribute asylum seekers across municipalities evenly is rejected, which means it has no majority in parliament anymore, and their own Nature & Nitrogen Minister Van der Wal's initiative to reduce nitrogen emissions by 50% in 2030 already (moved forward from 2035, which is the current legal target) is also explicitly rejected.

When reading the manifesto you get the impression that it's difficult to see this VVD enter a coalition with GL-PvdA. At the same time, historically, the VVD manifestos have had a lower value than the paper they were written on.

SP
The SP have also presented their draft manifesto, named Now the people. Marijnissen says her party is the only "anti-capitalist party" in the Netherlands and will make "radically different choices". "The social welfare state has been replaced for a mistrusting and punishing government. This is the case for the ordinary people, but not for the richest. They do better than ever. It is understandable people are losing trust in politics."

Some proposals:
- A minimum wage of 16 euros per hour
- Nationalization of the public transportation, energy, and childcare sectors
- Higher pensions and benefits
- No copayments for healthcare
- No budget cuts in healthcare
- No closed regional hospitals
- Pension age back to 65
- A temporary stop on labour migration
- Higher flight tax for frequent flyers for business; no flight tax for people who fly only once per year (already interested in the system they want to introduce to track people's flying behavior...)
- Amending Article 23 in the Constitution which provides for freedom of education to limit freedom for religious schools
- Forcefully redistributing asylum seekers across municipalities evenly
- More possibilities for municipalities to expropriate landlords if they leave their property empty
- The introduction of a binding referendum

[DavidB.]

New Peil.nl poll. Following the announcement of Mona Keijzer's PM candidacy, BBB gain 4 seats.



If asked whether voters want Keijzer (BBB), Timmermans (GL-PvdA) or Yesilgöz (VVD) as PM, this is the result by party (allen = all voters):



Big question mark still: who will be Omtzigt's candidate for PM?

[JimJamUK]

If asked whether voters want Keijzer (BBB), Timmermans (GL-PvdA) or Yesilgöz (VVD) as PM, this is the result by party (allen = all voters):

What immediately jumps out to me is how right wing the SP vote is and how left wing the CU vote is.

[DavidB.]

Yes, those two are among the most interesting figures. For CU, it shows the extent to which the party's leftward turn is supported by its voters. As for the SP, they and Timmermans have a history: in the 2019 EP election campaign, the SP launched a very controversial attack ad against Timmermans, depicted as an out-of-touch, elitist Eurocrat. His green crusade is also something that could rub SP voters the wrong way. Their appreciation of Keijzer is, I think, less of a "right-wing" thing and more of a "she's close to the people" thing. I am more curious about the 20% of SP voters who prefer Yesilgöz. Don't understand that.

Another interesting figure is the last remaining JA21 voters (1 seat now...) prefering Yesilgöz over Keijzer by such a big margin. If you had asked me, I would have expected these numbers to be inversed. If they are correct, the only thing I can imagine is that the remaining JA21 voters are relatively highly educated and very much concentrated in the Randstad and like Yesilgöz' profile on immigration and crime. I suppose many will eventually end up voting for her.

[DavidB.]

This weekend, the CDA presented its candidates. The top-10 consists of 8 incumbent MPs - mostly the younger ones, such as Henri Bontenbal (40, #1), Derk Boswijk (34, #3) and Harmen Krul (29, #5). With the CDA at 5 to 6 seats in the polls, many MPs decided to call it quits and do not return on the list. The party will focus on a "decent" Netherlands in which moral standards are upheld both by the government and in society. This is a nod to the theme of "norms and values", i.e. the idea that the Netherlands should again become a society in which people treat each other with respect; a theme which was long one of the most important to Dutch voters, on which CDA still has issue ownership and to which it owed its victories in the 2000s. The question is whether embracing it will be enough in a landscape with two CDA "copies" which, given the CDA's baggage, have more credibility on the issue. The question is also how visible the CDA can be, and how they can overcome the fact that most Dutch people don't know who Bontenbal is. Public Housing Minister Hugo de Jonge, the former party leader, already started off with a typical CDA fail: on camera with a parliamentary reporter, he made a joke at the expense of incumbent CDA MP Lucille Werner and her walking disability...

D66 also had some sort of a campaign kickoff behind closed doors, in which their new leader Rob Jetten made a speech. It is clear he wants the party to be less polarizing and return to somewhat of a centrist position in the political landscape, mentioning the old D66 slogan "the reasonable alternative". He says this is a time of a new generation in politics which shouldn't polarize, but instead unite to tackle the challenges of our time - which, in his view, is first and foremost the climate, but also education and purchasing power. NRC note that Jetten did not touch upon a number of topics which have historically been important to D66: democratic reform (although this went out of the window under Pechtold already), progressive legislation (the most important "crown jewel" under Pechtold, but de-emphasized under Kaag already), and LGBT issues (but Jetten himself is gay and has been vocal about anti-LGBT hate speech in the past).

Under Jetten, D66 will embrace nuclear energy, a change in position - in his capacity of Climate Minister, Jetten has been responsible for the planning of the construction of two new nuclear power plants at the initiative of VVD and CDA, but the official D66 position was still against. Now, Jetten says we do not have the luxury to exclude nuclear. He also says the debate surrounding nitrogen and the climate has to be had in a less polarizing way. Rumor has it that the D66 MP most responsible for this polarization, agriculture spokesman Tjeerd de Groot ("cut the amount of livestock by 50%"), will not return on the list.

In any case, D66 are set to lose a lot of seats: in the most recent I&O and Peil.nl polls, they are at 7, a loss of 17. It will be difficult for them to differentiate themselves from Timmermans and GL/PvdA, who will receive much more attention. Jetten had a little dig at them, saying "do you only want to support the bottom of income groups or do you, like us, choose to focus on the working people?" Perhaps this is a line that could work for them, particularly if GL/PvdA's manifesto turns out to be too left-wing economically for some socially progressive voters with relatively high incomes.

At the same time, D66's turn towards nuclear makes things even more difficult for Volt, as nuclear energy was virtually the only issue on which they had a different position (in favor) than D66.

Jetten also condemned the fact that VVD leader Dilan Yesilgöz has opened the door to the PVV again ("To all real liberals, you are all very welcome at D66").

[DavidB.]

Last minute cabinet reshuffle: as Frans Timmermans will leave the European Commission to focus on leading GL-PvdA into the election, the Dutch government has nominated Foreign Affairs Minister Wopke Hoekstra (CDA) to the European Commission. The European Parliament still has to approve this, but Rutte and the CDA have already arranged the reshuffle.

Hoekstra's position as Minister of Foreign Affairs will be taken up by current Interior Affairs Minister Hanke Bruins Slot (CDA), a former Dutch army officer. Hugo de Jonge (CDA), the current Minister of Public Housing, will keep his ministry but also take up Bruins Slot's position as Interior Minister. Karien van Gennip (CDA), Minister of Social Affairs, will take up Hoekstra's responsibilities as second Deputy Prime Minister.

[DavidB.]

We finally have the first Ipsos/EenVandaag poll since the announcement of NSC. They have historically been very accurate.

Numbers are compared to previous poll at July 25th:

NSC 27 (new)
VVD 26 (-2)
GL/PvdA 20 (-7)
BBB 15 (-9)
PVV 15 (-4)
D66 10 (-)
PvdD 9 (+2)
ChristenUnie 5 (-)
CDA 5 (-1)
SP 3 (-3)
FVD 3 (-1)
Volt 3 (-1)
JA21 3 (-1)
SGP 3 (-)
DENK 3 (-)
50Plus 0 (-)
BIJ1 0 (-)
BVNL 0 (-)

BBB lose a lot to NSC - but GL/PvdA too. The PvdD are also gaining voters who intended to choose GL/PvdA in July.

EenVandaag's Opiniepanel also has a poll on the "acceptability" of potential PMs:

Yesilgöz (VVD): 50% acceptable / 42% unacceptable
Keijzer (BBB): 39% acceptable / 52% unacceptable
Timmermans (GL/PvdA): 36% acceptable / 58% unacceptable
Wilders (PVV): 24% acceptable / 69% unacceptable

Note that this is a different question than Peil.nl's question discussed above, in which voters were asked to choose one between Timmermans, Keijzer and Yesilgöz.

[Harlow]

uh what lol

https://twitter.com/CrazyDutchPol/status/1699320485937357208?s=20

[DavidB.]

Yeah, not sure what's going on there and why they would even backtrack on Keijzer as PM candidate in the first place - polls have confirmed Keijzer is popular. BBB have managed their growth very well thus far, but in cases like these, you notice they are still new and unexperienced.

One party after another is presenting its draft candidate list and its draft election manifesto, which usually have to be approved by the membership. The VVD had already presented its manifesto and published its list this week. The previous election was just two years ago, so it makes sense that a lot of MPs continue and there's fewer new candidates than usually - the first new name is at #16. The top 10 contains seven women, the top 5 four. Leader Dilan Yesilgöz is followed by parliamentary group leader Sophie Hermans, former immigration spokeswoman Bente Becker, Immigration Deputy Minister Eric van der Burg, and Nature & Nitrogen Minister Christianne van der Wal. Some up and coming young MPs were awarded a high spot, among which Foreign Affairs spokesman Ruben Brekelmans (very visible on supporting Ukraine; #6), climate & energy spokesman Silvio Erkens (very pro-nuclear; #11), and agriculture spokesman Thom van Campen (#14).

GroenLinks-PvdA have presented their draft manifesto Together for a hopeful future and list this week. They want a 16 euro per hour minimum wage, an end to flexible, so-called 'zero hour contracts', and a 49 euro per month 'climate ticket' for unlimited use of public transportation. They want 2030 to become the deadline for 50% nitrogen reduction and continue to oppose nuclear energy. On immigration, deals with third countries (like with Turkey and Tunisia) are no longer taboo; here, the PvdA line has clearly won. The manifesto is very green, however: GL-PvdA want to achieve carbon neutrality by 2040 and enshrine this target in the Climate Law. Interesting: chapter "A just sustainability transition" comes first, "A secure existence for everybody" second.

Like with the VVD, the top-20 GL-PvdA candidate list consists mostly of incumbent MPs. The biggest 'surprise' is Esmah Lahlah (GroenLinks) at #2. Lahlah holds a PhD in law and has now been an alderwoman in Tilburg for 5 years, with portfolios Social Affairs, Work, Education, and Poverty Reduction. GL party leader Jesse Klaver is at #3. You can find the entire list here.

BBB has also presented its manifesto and list. At a press conference, they had already presented a number of names: Van der Plas at #1, PM candidate (?) Mona Keijzer at #2, Afghanistan veteran and war hero Gijs Tuinman, only one of the three people still alive who was awarded the highest military decoration, at #3. Parliamentary chief of staff Henk Vermeer is at #4 and former PVV MP and lawyer Lilian Helder at #5. Most of the other people on the list are still relatively unknown, although this obviously isn't the case for former JA21 MPs Nicki Pouw-Verweij (#9) and Derk Jan Eppink (#24, apparently demoted 5 spots since the press conference).

Its election manifesto is interesting, as this is the first time BBB had to take stances on a lot of issues and they are potential kingmakers after the election. The title translates as Every Day BBBetter: From Trust Crisis to Neighborly State, in which "noaberstaat" is not common Dutch but Eastern Dutch dialect, with a connotation of a tight-knit community in which people take care of each other. BBB has a lot of attention for countryside affairs - they want a "regional assessment" for every new policy to check how it would affect the countryside.

They are rather left-wing on healthcare and social affairs (e.g. higher minimum wage), but more right-wing on themes such as the speed limit on highways (back from 100 to 130 km/h by day), asylum and immigration (a 'Danish' opt-out; an annual cap of 15,000 asylum seekers), and the European Union (where they want the Committee of the Regions to become a Senate of the European Union with veto powers). They support nuclear energy, the introduction of a referendum, and the Return of the King... in the government formation process. On the other hand, for BBB, the Nitrogen Law obviously has to go.

The segment on supporting Ukraine was particularly strongly worded. A snippet:

BBB supports peace negotiations, but not against every price. If a burglar enters your house, is caught and proposes, after a fight, a compromise in which he can take away all your family jewelry, we also do not speak of an acceptable outcome.

With 16 seats in the Senate, BBB are a force to be reckoned with in every step of government formation negotiations.

BBB's polar opposite is the Party for the Animals, who presented their manifesto A world for the retaking. They move further in the Dark Green direction, away from the focus on animals.The PvdD want to reduce the number of cattle in the Netherlands by 75% in two (!) years (apparently the government doesn't have to be a trustworthy partner to farmers), cut nitrogen emissions by 70% in 2030 (compared to 2020), and reach carbon neutrality in 2030. Suffices to say the program is very green and very left-wing. Like in 2021, "A livable Earth" (capitalized everytime) is chapter one, "Animal rights" chapter two.

[Angel of Death]

If asked whether voters want Keijzer (BBB), Timmermans (GL-PvdA) or Yesilgöz (VVD) as PM, this is the result by party (allen = all voters):

What immediately jumps out to me is how right wing the SP vote is and how left wing the CU vote is.

What about how badly Keijzer is doing among what remains of her former party's supporters? They must really see her as a traitor if she's doing that much worse than even Timmermans, the very embodiment of the party's archnemesis, the PvdA.

[DavidB.]

What about how badly Keijzer is doing among what remains of her former party's supporters? They must really see her as a traitor if she's doing that much worse than even Timmermans, the very embodiment of the party's archnemesis, the PvdA.

I'm not completely sure this is a correct interpretation. This poll shows first preferences, not approval. You'd expect Keijzer's figure to be much higher with CDA voters, true, but based on this figure alone you cannot say whether Keijzer is disliked.

Also, the bolded part of your quote is key here. The figure would look drastically different if you took CDA 2021 voters. Those who still intend to vote CDA are there for a reason; most of them are probably much more 'establishmentarian'/'don't rock the boat'-like, hence the support for (mostly) Yesilgöz. But I do think many of those Yesilgöz "preferencers" would have Keijzer and not Timmermans as second choice among the three.

[DavidB.]

Wow: Esther Ouwehand not nominated as #1 by PvdD party board because of "multiple allegations" with regard to a "potential" unspecified integrity issue, PvdD chairman Ruud van der Velden has communicated in a press statement. No idea about the context, but there is speculation that the “old guard” wants to take the party back and steer it back into a more animal-focused direction. Doesn’t sound implausible to me. Under Ouwehand, the party had really changed. Risky game though: they had tried to get rid of Ouwehand before and failed. This sort of stuff right before an election could be very damaging to the party’s prospects (see also: JA21).

Update: PvdD Groningen leader Wesley Pechler doesn't mince his words. "The PvdD board has gone completely crazy. Full support for Esther Ouwehand, and not for the dirty political games that the founders have been playing since the beginning. Now, it's the party congress' turn. Motion of no confidence against the full board."

https://twitter.com/wesleypechler93/status/1700495041897087047

Update 2: The youth organization also supports Ouwehand. Looks like the speculation about old guard vs. new generation was correct. Now, who wins this fight depends on the internal rules. Looks like 2/3 at the party congress is needed for a motion of no confidence; at first glance, I don't see any rules regarding turnout as part of the total membership. This would seem achievable for Ouwehand. She gets a ton of support from elected PvdD officials already.

https://twitter.com/pinkpolitiek/status/1700502328103547093

[Logical]

A nice boost for GL-PvdA regardless of what happens next. No one likes party infighting two months before an election.