🇳🇱 Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: General Election (Nov 22)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Meanwhile, in the LOLnews department: the invisible BVNL MP Olaf Ephraim has split off from his party after being denied a spot on the candidate list. This means we now have a record 21 parliamentary groups. It is completely unclear why Van Haga didn't simply give him spot #3 and called it a day, because they will never get 3 seats. Ephraim retaliated with a spree of bellicose messages in an internal BVNL WhatsApp group, which have of course leaked. He implies he will now debate Van Haga as much as possible in parliament during the budget debates in September.

No relation, ftr.

[jeron]

Omtzigt seems to be popular among some left wing voters which is kind of weird considering his 20 year parliamentarian streak. He has been a rather conservative CDA member. Of course we do not know his future ideas yet so maybe he will pander to left wing voters during the campaign.

I think Omtzigt's popularity among left-wing voters can be explained very easily: he stands up for marginalized people who are being crushed by the government machinery. This is the core of his legacy in parliament, most importantly because of his role in exposing the childcare benefits scandal - and it is what the left is supposed to do. I also don't think his streak in parliament can be unequivocally called "conservative". He is more of a euroskeptic, true, but seems more left-wing on socio-economic issues than the CDA (see also: his support for increasing the minimum wage by 10%, which was eliminated by Hoekstra from the 2021 draft election manifesto at the last moment). On immigration he is more to the right, but on agriculture more to the left.

As to the SP joining such a right wing coalition, the idea is quite absurd. The SP does not want to be in a coalition with VVD, let alone JA21.

This may be your impression but it is not what they say. They excluded the VVD in 2017 but softened this position that fall. Then SP chairman Ron Meyer in De Volkskrant: "Excluding a party is never permanent."

In 2021, Lilian Marijnissen only excluded cooperation with the PVV and Forum for Democracy but she did explicitly not exclude cooperation with the VVD. From NOS: "She does not wish to anticipate on specific potential coalition partners, but will definitely not [enter a coalition] with PVV and Forum for Democracy. She does not wish to completely exclude the VVD [as potential partner], but they are at the bottom of the list." For Marijnissen, the most important thing was the SP would "only enter a government that would decrease inequality".

On the local and provincial level, VVD and SP have already cooperated successfully. With Rutte out and the new VVD leader not carrying a lot of negative baggage, the most important obstacle for VVD-SP cooperation on the national level is removed. I don't think it is far-fetched at all. The only alternative for the SP is ever-further marginalization in opposition.

You prove my point exactly. People focus on the child benefits scandal and think Omtzigt is on the left and on their side.

It is not my impression, it is what SP members say privately. One of them just laughed when i told him people think the may join such a coalition. And even if they would be willing to join the vvd in a coaliton that is still something completely different than joining a completely right wing coalition. That would be political suicide. Why would any socialist party want to do that?

We all know that cooperating on provincial level is something completely different than on a national level as the main tasks of provinces lie in the fields of public transport, roads and environment.

[DavidB.]

We will see. All I'm saying is that I don't think we can exclude the possibility. In fact, I think that out of all the nearly impossible options on the menu, this combination may turn out to be one of the least impossible ones (even if some SP members will indeed be angry and leave). Of course, if a version without the VVD would be numerically possible (which would be the case if Omtzigt and/or BBB get very big and the VVD drop compared to current polls), that would have the SP's very strong preference.

[freek]

or that he’ll be running only in Overijssel.

procedural question: doesn't the Netherlands have only a single nationwide constituency? What exactly does it entail, then, for a party list to only run in a single district? Only those voters will see them as an option on their ballot?

For that matter, how do district lists work when all the districts are part of one national constituency? If a party lists different candidates in each electoral district (and not just running the same list of candidates everywhere) how do the seats won by the party get allocated between the different candidate lists?

This is a good question and I cannot answer it. Come to think of it, our electoral system seems to provide for the possibility of having completely different lists in every electoral region - the only issue is that in this case, the candidates from more populous provinces would probably all be elected. No party does this, though. As far as I understand, seats are allocated based on the total tally of all votes cast for a party (that means on all lists of this party), then these seats are allocated first to candidates who crossed the threshold for preferential votes (as long as the party obtains enough seats to allocate those) and then to those lower on the list, depending on how many seats a party has left. But if party A runs a different list in every electoral region, obtains 8 seats and only has 3 candidates who reach the preferential threshold (let's say the number 1, 2 and 3 - somewhere), I would not know how the Electoral Council determines which numbers 4, 5, 6, 7, and 8 can take up the seat, out of the 20 regions, provided that none have reached the preferential threshold. Maybe Freek or someone else can help us out here.

Yes, these are interesting questions, I'll try to answer them. It is an intricate system though.

Legally, there is not really a nationwide constituency, but in practice there is one. Every party has the option to have a different list in every district, to have identical lists in every district, or something in between. An identical list is a list that contains exactly the same candidates in exactly the same order. If you want to have an identical list in 19 districts, and the same list with an additional regional candidate in Limburg, you have 2 lists (1 for Limburg, 1 for the rest of the country). In case a party has non-identical lists (i.e. >1 list), in election law it is called a group of lists.
And indeed, you can have completely different candidates in every district. Most parties now opt to have an identical list in every district (a national list). Especially since the maximum number of candidates on a list was increased to 50, about 15 years ago. As a relic from the past (there used to be some administrative advantages in electoral law), some larger parties run lists that are identical except for the last 5 candidates.

After the elections, the seats need to be assigned to the lists. For a nationwide identical list, this is easy. In case there is a group of lists, at first the number of seats is calculated based on the total number of votes for the entire group. These are then assigned to the 2-20 lists within the group. This based on the number of votes for each of the lists and the number of seats for the entire group, using the largest remainder method.

The last step is to assign each of these seats to a candidate. At first, seats are assigned to the candidates that passed the preference vote barrier (25% of the electoral quota, so 0.1667% for the Second Chamber, about 17k votes). When a candidate is running on multiple lists within a group of lists, these votes are added up. Assigning starts with the candidate with the most votes. The candidate is then assigned a seat on a list that still has seats available, the list where he/she received the most votes.

If there are still seats available when all preference vote candidates have been assigned a seat, the remaining seats on each list are then assigned simultaneously, based on list order. In case a candidate is assigned a seat on multiple lists, he/she is elected on the list where the most preference votes were received. The other seats are then reassigned to next candidate on these lists, based on the order. In case of a large number of lists, that only have some variation at the bottom, this is a long iterative process. In case a large party runs 20 different lists, this often means that the top candidates are elected in the most populous district: 7 (Arnhem). The further down the list, it starts to become a lottery. It could be for example that a low-placed candidate from the North, running nationwide, ends up with a seat on a list in a different part of the country, because the northern lists had already run out of available seats.
Whenever an MP from one of these group of lists resigns, the successor will then be appointed from the same list where the MP was originally elected on.

edit: A simple example how this works in practice: Leefbaar Nederland in 2002 ran with 19 regional lists (district 20 did not exist back then). Candidate #1 was the same on every list, candidates and list order were completely different otherwise, although most candidates were running on multiple lists.

Leefbaar Nederland only won 2 seats. These were assigned to the 2 lists that received the most votes: Haarlem and Dordrecht. Candidate #1 was the only one to pass the preference vote barrier, and was elected on the list where he received the most votes: Haarlem. The other seat was then assigned to candidate #2 of the Dordrecht list.

[DavidB.]

Great explanation, many thanks!

Some developments:

- Former CDA Deputy Minister of Economic Affairs Mona Keijzer, who proved to be a vote magnet both in 2012 and 2017, has officially cancelled her party membership. In 2021, Keijzer was fired from the previous Rutte-III government for criticizing the introduction of COVID passports based on testing, recovery or vaccination, which excluded lots of people from society. She always stood out within the CDA as an outspoken woman (from "the region" - Volendam, close to Amsterdam but culturally miles away) with somewhat of an independent streak. Her personal popularity could not be ignored, but she was never allowed a top job by the old boys network.

Her official reason to leave was talk of the potential CDA leadership candidacy of Hubert Bruls, mayor of Nijmegen, former leader of the Security Deliberation Council consisting of the 25 mayors who lead the "security regions" (which suddenly had much power during COVID) and a controversial figure because of his hardline pro-lockdown stances. Google some images of him to see why this stance was particularly controversial in his personal case. Bruls denies he is in the race, though, and I truly doubt he will lead the party (and if so, they're done).

Expect to see Keijzer back with BBB or Omtzigt, perhaps as candidate for Prime Minister. She's definitely not finished.

- Stephan van Baarle is the likely candidate to take over the leadership of DENK. Van Baarle, 31 years old, has been an MP since 2021 and was DENK's leader in Rotterdam before. In other words, he is very much of an insider and the heir-apparent. Van Baarle is half-Turkish and declares himself to be agnostic. It will be interesting to see how this flies with DENK's core voters - also because Van Baarle received a much poorer personal vote than Kuzu and Azarkan in 2021. I think the party may be in trouble if Kuzu decides not to stand anymore.

- D66 foreign affairs spokesman Sjoerd Sjoerdsma, a former diplomat and one of the most visible MPs on Russia/Ukraine, has decided not to stand for re-election. Sjoerdsma has been in parliament since 2012.

- Following Nicki Pouw-Verweij, one more JA21 MP has decided not to stand for re-election for JA21: Derk Jan Eppink, who was also on the conservative side of the party. Earlier this year, both Eppink and Pouw-Verweij signed a letter criticizing the party's supposed lack of democracy and professionalism.

This means Joost Eerdmans will be the only JA21 MP continuing; it adds to the impression that the core pool of candidates for the party has become rather narrow and the party's positioning more liberal (in the Fortuynist sense). Annabel Nanninga, currently the JA21 leader in the Senate and on the council in Amsterdam, will now be a candidate for the lower house - I can only imagine her at #2 of the list - and leave the Senate.

- Lilian Helder has decided not to stand for re-election "for the PVV". Helder, a lawyer, has been the PVV's spokeswoman on justice, security, and crime since 2010. She has been widely viewed as a good MP and even Justice Minister Yesilgöz (VVD) sent out a tweet recognizing this. The question is: what does "for the PVV" mean here? Would you add these words when you don't intend to stand for re-election at all? The transfer window is still open, after all, and there might be one or two clubs looking to strengthen their squads...

- Anonymous Twitter account Haagse Insider, often pedantic and annoying but also often surprisingly right about rumors and scoops, is saying there is an attempt to create a new Social Democratic list, separate from PvdA/GL. Not sure if true, but I wouldn't be terribly surprised either, as some momentum against the joint list is building. Following MP Henk Nijboer not standing for re-election in opposition to the joint list, PvdA board member and former MP Lutz Jacobi (the only PvdA MP to vote against the Joint Strike Fighter war plane in 2013) has decided to quit her board membership over the merger. Jacobi wants broader cooperation with the left (probably with the SP, too) and is unhappy with the top-down implementation of it. She also says all the organizational talk distracts from the issues that matter. You do wonder how much political space there really is for a more 'Blue Labour' social democratic party, though - in 2017, the Nieuwe Wegen party from former PvdA MP Jacques Monasch received only 14,000 votes.

[DL]

Isn’t D66 kind of a “blue labour” social Democratic Party? My understanding is that party was first created by people on the right of PVDA in the 1960s

[JimJamUK]

Isn’t D66 kind of a “blue labour” social Democratic Party? My understanding is that party was first created by people on the right of PVDA in the 1960s

No, absolutely not. It’s an ultra progressive middle class party, almost the complete opposite of Blue Labour politics.

[Cassius]

Isn’t D66 kind of a “blue labour” social Democratic Party? My understanding is that party was first created by people on the right of PVDA in the 1960s

The founders of D66 came from the left-wing of the VVD (Hans van Mierlo and Hans Gruijters) - I think you may be confusing them with DS’70, a group of PvdA traditionalists led by Willem Drees Jr (son of the PvdA PM of the same name) who split from the main party due to their dissatisfaction with its leftward drift.

[Alcibiades]

Isn’t D66 kind of a “blue labour” social Democratic Party? My understanding is that party was first created by people on the right of PVDA in the 1960s

The founders of D66 came from the left-wing of the VVD (Hans van Mierlo and Hans Gruijters) - I think you may be confusing them with DS’70, a group of PvdA traditionalists led by Willem Drees Jr (son of the PvdA PM of the same name) who split from the main party due to their dissatisfaction with its leftward drift.

Though DS’70 also very much did not have a ‘Blue Labour’ electorate, performing best in affluent areas.

[Zinneke]

There's already been an attempt at a blue labour style split of of PvdA obsessed with being both centrist but also anti-wokd but it was just a personalist vehicle for the MP that had a tetchy relationship with the leadership. Monarch for me was more trying to build a serious alternative to PvdA and SP.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

So... the SP but for genepool Freethinkers rather than genepool Catholics?

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

So... the SP but for genepool Freethinkers rather than genepool Catholics?

They can merge and call it SDA.

[DavidB.]

So... the SP but for genepool Freethinkers rather than genepool Catholics?

They can merge and call it SDA.

That would be the Bosniak splitoff from DENK.

[DavidB.]

On Monday, the CDA party board will nominate Henri Bontenbal as leadership candidate. Bontenbal (40) has been an MP since 2021 and represents a younger generation, both in terms of age and in terms of baggage in politics, something many CDA prominents were calling for. He studied physics and has a background in energy. Over the last years he was the spokesman for climate and energy, on which he supports nuclear energy and a "green industrial strategy", and he stood out with his knowledge in debates. Minus for Bontenbal: he is from Rotterdam, not from "the region", where the Christian Democrats have lost most of their votes recently.

CDA members who oppose Bontenbal's candidacy have 10 days (starting from Monday) to find a different candidate supported by at least 3 provincial or 10 local party chapters. In that case, the party congress will vote between the candidates on September 23. This is not expected to happen - no one wants a redux of the disastrous De Jonge/Omtzigt saga.

[DavidB.]

New VVD leader Dilan Yesilgöz has confirmed she will not outright exclude the PVV as coalition partner. She says she will wait for Wilders' election manifesto to see whether there is ground for cooperation. A watershed moment - Rutte had excluded any cooperation since Wilders' "fewer Moroccans" moment in 2014 and based his entire 2017 campaign on this exclusion. Now, Rutte claims to support Yesilgöz' position, as do other VVD prominents such as Rotterdam party leader Vincent Karremans. Yesilgöz emphasizes that Wilders claimed to want "a new start" and awaits whether he comes up with "constructive proposals".

On the other hand, the new CDA leader Henri Bontenbal, who is perceived as being more on the left of his party, continues to exclude the PVV.

[DavidB.]

First Peil.nl poll after the summer break shows big swing towards VVD, PVV, away from BBB and JA21. Numbers compared to July 2 poll:

VVD 28 (+8)
PvdA-GL 26 (+1)
BBB 21 (-6)
PVV 19 (+5)
PvdD 9 (-1)
D66 8 (-2)
SP 8 (-)
CDA 8 (+2)
FVD 5 (-)
CU 4 (-)
Volt 4 (-2)
JA21 3 (-4)
SGP 3 (-)
DENK 2 (-)
50Plus 1 (-)
BVNL 1 (-)
BIJ1 0 (-1)

BBB's hesitancy around the question whether Van der Plas is their PM candidate doesn't look very strong and this impression has been lingering for the entire summer. In addition, nobody talks about the farmers anymore. Looks like they peaked too early. Meanwhile, JA21 has seen Pouw-Verweij and Eppink leave, which I guess gives voters the impression the party is ending. On the other hand, I had definitely underestimated the VVD's capability to move on from the Rutte era. Yesilgöz looks like she could be the next Dutch PM. The PVV gain too - immigration being the top issue now, Wilders' milder tone, and the potential prospect of playing a serious role in government formation all help him (and make sure there is barely any space for JA21 anymore).

The CDA's slight gain is probably due to the massive amount of attention for boring Bontenbal's leadership candidacy over the last few days, with press having nothing to write about, but I expect this bump to fade out - he has the charisma of a wet newspaper, as we say in Dutch.

Polls also don't look very hopeful for D66. Jetten's campaign has been very uninspiring so far - he keeps repeating the sentence "new energy for the Netherlands", a reference to his ministerial portfolio, but in reality it is very low-energy (sounds too much like marketing language and is too vague) and I think he can do a lot better. A missed opportunity to talk about actual issues now that PvdA-GL also don't do that. Wonder what D66' electoral floor is - because they might hit it.

[DavidB.]

Omtzigt is IN. Confirmed in Tubantia. His new party is named Nieuw Sociaal Contract (New Social Contract), just like his book. He says he has a manifesto, but no candidate list, but has until Oct 8th for it. More news to follow.

https://twitter.com/pieteromtzigt/status/1693352512747634907

[Oryxslayer]

Since the above is broken,  here's the announcement video

https://twitter.com/PieterOmtzigt/status/1693352512747634907?t=5qOnTgkgUwKo9hDrb...

[Harlow]

Interestingly, Omtzigt says he does not want to become Prime Minister. Would be an interesting situation if his party were to become the largest and in the governmental coalition.

[Oryxslayer]

Interestingly, Omtzigt says he does not want to become Prime Minister. Would be an interesting situation if his party were to become the largest and in the governmental coalition.

That makes two of the top 5 parties leaders not wanting to be PM, one specifically running solely to be PM, and one who probably couldn't get a majority coalition if he was the PM candidate and not just a coalition partner.

[Harlow]

FWIW, here's the peil poll from yesterday with an Omtzigt party:

Omtzigt: 27
VVD: 25 (-3 w/o Omtzigt)
Pvda/GL: 24 (-2)
PVV: 15 (-4)
BBB: 12 (-9)
D66: 8
PvdD: 8 (-1)
CDA: 6 (-2)
SP 6 (-2)
FVD: 5
Volt: 4
CU: 3 (-1)
JA21: 2 (-1)
SGP: 2 (-1)
DENK: 2
50+: 1

Complete disaster for the BBB

[DavidB.]

Expecting something along the lines of NSC-VVD-BBB-CDA-SP now. Omtzigt excludes PVV (and FVD) because their proposals would be against the rule of law.

If you view BBB and NSC as CDA splitoffs, you could see a coalition like this as a new way to form somewhat of a center-right coalition without nationalist right involvement, a road that had been blocked after the LPF/PVV breakthrough. Mathematically this only becomes possible when sufficient numbers of former PVV/FVD/JA21 voters jump ship to NSC/BBB, and/or when the left lose voters to these center-right parties - both will probably be the case, but more the former than the latter.

[Bacon King]

He says he has a manifesto, but no candidate list, but has until Oct 8th for it. More news to follow.

honest question: how will he possibly recruit and vet a full slate of serious candidates in just 49 days? has there been any speculation/discussion in Dutch media about this? Because he's basically starting from scratch here and it's not like he has an existing network of party activists to recruit from.

[Angel of Death]

He says he has a manifesto, but no candidate list, but has until Oct 8th for it. More news to follow.

honest question: how will he possibly recruit and vet a full slate of serious candidates in just 49 days? has there been any speculation/discussion in Dutch media about this? Because he's basically starting from scratch here and it's not like he has an existing network of party activists to recruit from.

If he's genuine about playing the long game here, he could actually deliberately limit the size of the slate to only the most well-vetted people and accept that he might very well lose out on seats due to having too few candidates to fill them. Of course the (almost?) unheard of outcome of other parties getting those seats instead, could risk harming the democratic legitimacy of the incoming parliament and the political process in general. Then again, the LPF is still in vivid memory.

[freek]

He says he has a manifesto, but no candidate list, but has until Oct 8th for it. More news to follow.

honest question: how will he possibly recruit and vet a full slate of serious candidates in just 49 days? has there been any speculation/discussion in Dutch media about this? Because he's basically starting from scratch here and it's not like he has an existing network of party activists to recruit from.

If he's genuine about playing the long game here, he could actually deliberately limit the size of the slate to only the most well-vetted people and accept that he might very well lose out on seats due to having too few candidates to fill them. Of course the (almost?) unheard of outcome of other parties getting those seats instead, could risk harming the democratic legitimacy of the incoming parliament and the political process in general. Then again, the LPF is still in vivid memory.

Indeed. Alternatively: run in a limited number of districts. That may even leave a number of spare candidates, in case of resignations for whatever reason.