Murray isn’t losing (IL has more upset potential for seat #55 or #56 in a gigantic red wave, honestly), but polls like these should be a wake-up call for those who think races like AZ-SEN, NV-SEN, and PA-SEN are Tilt/Lean D because reasons, feelings, incumbency, and "candidate quality." Democrats are in a deep, deep hole and control of the House (which they can always win back in two years) should be the last of their worries right now. We still have nearly a year to go, but right now they’re on track to get absolutely wiped out in this Senate class and countless governorships/row offices in a way that will catalpult them back to 2015 (if not worse), and Republicans are one presidential win away from solidifying the Senate for a generation (not that I trust them to pull it off).
I mean to be fair, I don't think anyone except bloomers, think those three races are anything better than Democrats as a tossup right now. Anyways, a wipeout was pretty likely from the minute Biden won, no matter how much people were going to deny it, electoral fatigue is a very real thing. Also if Republicans do win 2024, they should be prepared for a similar wipeout come 2026 (a map where honestly they have gotten pretty lucky). Anyways we heard takes about Democrats "solidifying the Senate for a generation" after 2008 and it didn't pan out, the only way for a party to actually "solidify the Senate" is to spend multiple midterms in opposition so they can win 3 or 4 wave elections. Electoral fatigue is a very real thing and it will set in sooner or later. But I do agree with the broader point that we seem to be heading towards Democrats establishing an advantage in the House and Republicans establishing one in the Senate, long-term. On the second point about 2024, that map is awful for Democrats, but every single tossup falling one way is just pretty unlikely, incumbency may not matter as much as it does, but it still matters somewhat. I just have a hard time seeing all of the races on a knife's edge go one way, that just tends not to happen. Lastly, I don't think we can discount the possibility of split-ticket voting, which while overrated still absolutely exists.
