WA Senate - Murray +3 - Elway Research.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Patty Murray (D-Inc) 42% (+3)
Generic Republican 39%

Elway Research/@Crosscut ~ 400 RV ~ 12/26-12/28
https://t.co/iKz5h0QfYf

[kwabbit]

I will never understand why they don't poll a specific Republican against Murray. Any polls that have a Generic D or R are not of much use, and it's frustrating that the only piece of public information is so much less useful than it could be.

[Suburbia]

Is Elway Research run by John Elway's family?

Other than that, Safe D. Murray should have retired by now.

[SnowLabrador]

This seat isn't going to flip, but if Murray's only up by 3, it's gonna be ugly for Democrats.

[Miked0920]

I think Murray wins between 3-13 points at days end but I hope I am not jinxing it. One thing that scares me about Ms Smiley is that she has round 2.5 million cash on hand, and its a likely budding red wave year. Still Washington State seems too Democratic on a Federal level to elect a Republican on a Federal Level, Murray herself survived there against Dino Rossi in the GOP tsunami of 2010. I hope that in the case that BBB and Voting Rights don't pass or even fail on the Senate Floor, that it dosent endanger or even mortally wound normally safe incumbents like Patty Murray.

[NewYorkExpress]

Barring Washington Republicans convincing a Republican in the Congressional delegation to make a late entry (someone like Jaime Herrera Beutler, perhaps), Murray should at least be favored. Still, given the likely size of the GOP wave that will be incoming (it might be bigger than 2010 and 2014 combined), her best chance of winning probably will be for another Democrat to enter, and for that person to beat out the Republican for the second slot in the top-two primary (which should be doable in Washington).

[Miked0920]

That is possible by blanket Primary Laws, do you think that there is a real chance Murray could lose to a GOPer like Tiffany Smiley. And do you actually think that the GOP Wave will be bigger than both 2010/2014 combined?

[Roll Roons]

That is possible by blanket Primary Laws, do you think that there is a real chance Murray could lose to a GOPer like Tiffany Smiley. And do you actually think that the GOP Wave will be bigger than both 2010/2014 combined?

No, there isn't a realistic chance. If Murray does lose, forget 2010 or 1994. That would be a wave on par with 1894.

[NewYorkExpress]

That is possible by blanket Primary Laws, do you think that there is a real chance Murray could lose to a GOPer like Tiffany Smiley. And do you actually think that the GOP Wave will be bigger than both 2010/2014 combined?

I think it will be bigger than 2010/2014 combined. However, against Tiffany Smiley, I'd expect Murray to win by a similar margin to Christine Gregoire in 2004. Republicans need a stronger candidate (Jaime Herrera Beutler, Dave Reichert, Rob McKenna, Dino Rossi) to beat Murray, even in this climate.

[Miked0920]

Aside from the Obviously Vulnerable Dem Incumbents, (Catherine Cortez Masto, Maggie Hassan, Mark Kelly, Raphael Warnock), who else on the Democrat Incumbent Side could you possibly see losing?

[Miked0920]

Aside from the Obviously Vulnerable Dem Incumbents, (Catherine Cortez Masto, Maggie Hassan, Mark Kelly, Raphael Warnock), who else on the Democrat Incumbent Side could you possibly see losing?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

That is possible by blanket Primary Laws, do you think that there is a real chance Murray could lose to a GOPer like Tiffany Smiley. And do you actually think that the GOP Wave will be bigger than both 2010/2014 combined?

I think it will be bigger than 2010/2014 combined. However, against Tiffany Smiley, I'd expect Murray to win by a similar margin to Christine Gregoire in 2004. Republicans need a stronger candidate (Jaime Herrera Beutler, Dave Reichert, Rob McKenna, Dino Rossi) to beat Murray, even in this climate.

There is no reason to believe this whatsoever.

[Miked0920]

Rossi, McKenna, Herrara Beutler are all not running.

[NewYorkExpress]

Aside from the Obviously Vulnerable Dem Incumbents, (Catherine Cortez Masto, Maggie Hassan, Mark Kelly, Raphael Warnock), who else on the Democrat Incumbent Side could you possibly see losing?

Michael Bennet is probably the only other incumbent who almost certainly would lose in a wave that's worse than 2010/2014.

Other than that the others are either facing opposition that is too weak (Murray, Wyden, Van Hollen, Blumenthal), already retiring (Leahy), or are just in too Democratic states to be impacted heavily by all but a tsunami that would be worse than 1894 (Schatz, Duckworth, Schumer, Padilla).

[Miked0920]

I see, Do you see Incumbent GOP Governors like Larry Hogan (MD), or Phil Scott (VT) who has seemingly as of now declined running in those possible races?

[swf541]

Aside from the Obviously Vulnerable Dem Incumbents, (Catherine Cortez Masto, Maggie Hassan, Mark Kelly, Raphael Warnock), who else on the Democrat Incumbent Side could you possibly see losing?

Michael Bennet is probably the only other incumbent who almost certainly would lose in a wave that's worse than 2010/2014.

Other than that the others are either facing opposition that is too weak (Murray, Wyden, Van Hollen, Blumenthal), already retiring (Leahy), or are just in too Democratic states to be impacted heavily by all but a tsunami that would be worse than 1894 (Schatz, Duckworth, Schumer, Padilla).

So you are expecting an R+13+ election? That seems far fetched.....

[NewYorkExpress]

I see, Do you see Incumbent GOP Governors like Larry Hogan (MD), or Phil Scott (VT) who has seemingly as of now declined running in those possible races?

No. Both Scott and Hogan have made it clear they aren't running and I don't see them changing their minds.

Hogan probably has his sights set on a primary challenge to Trump in 2024, while Scott will take a reelection win in 2022, and probably another one in 2024.

[Xing]

Murray isn’t going to lose, but it is possible that this race ends up relatively closer than expected ( probably not as close as +3) if Democrats really tank.

[Miked0920]

Agreed As stated above Id say that Murray wins between 3-13 points at the low end she would win similar to her 4 point victory over Dino Rossi in 2010.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

If Murray is ahead by 3 (a 17 point shift to the right without any significant issues with Murray), the dems are in for a heap of trouble and a bigger than 2010 wave.

[MT Treasurer]

Murray isn’t losing (IL has more upset potential for seat #55 or #56 in a gigantic red wave, honestly), but polls like these should be a wake-up call for those who think races like AZ-SEN, NV-SEN, and PA-SEN are Tilt/Lean D because reasons, feelings, incumbency, and "candidate quality." Democrats are in a deep, deep hole and control of the House (which they can always win back in two years) should be the last of their worries right now. We still have nearly a year to go, but right now they’re on track to get absolutely wiped out in this Senate class and countless governorships/row offices in a way that will catalpult them back to 2015 (if not worse), and Republicans are one presidential win away from solidifying the Senate for a generation (not that I trust them to pull it off).

[President Johnson]

Imagine taking this poll seriously.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Murray isn’t losing (IL has more upset potential for seat #55 or #56 in a gigantic red wave, honestly), but polls like these should be a wake-up call for those who think races like AZ-SEN, NV-SEN, and PA-SEN are Tilt/Lean D because reasons, feelings, incumbency, and "candidate quality." Democrats are in a deep, deep hole and control of the House (which they can always win back in two years) should be the last of their worries right now. We still have nearly a year to go, but right now they’re on track to get absolutely wiped out in this Senate class and countless governorships/row offices in a way that will catalpult them back to 2015 (if not worse), and Republicans are one presidential win away from solidifying the Senate for a generation (not that I trust them to pull it off).

Lol, you guys or Rs are blocking Filibuster reform  and until we see every state poll it's still a 304/234 map and the campaign doesn't begin until August anyways

[Schiff for Senate]

This seat isn't going to flip

This quote coming from you says more than anything I could say. Safe Democratic, no question.

[ElectionsGuy]

Never heard of this pollster and nearly all undecided voters are heavily D-leaning groups. Obviously don't expect Murray to have a close race, but it's possible to be within single digits and closer than states like Florida and Ohio.