WA Senate - Murray +3 - Elway Research.

[Calthrina950]

Probably ends up a 55%-45% race in the end.

Agreed. Murray did win by "only" 4% in 2010. Given increased polarization since then, I don't think her race this year will be as close, but she could be held to a high single-digit or low double-digit margin of victory. 

[Calthrina950]

That is possible by blanket Primary Laws, do you think that there is a real chance Murray could lose to a GOPer like Tiffany Smiley. And do you actually think that the GOP Wave will be bigger than both 2010/2014 combined?

No, there isn't a realistic chance. If Murray does lose, forget 2010 or 1994. That would be a wave on par with 1894.

That's probably overstating things; 1894 was a crushing defeat that essentially reduced the Democrats to a regional status and gave Republicans seats they hadn't dreamed of winning in years. 1894 would be like Murray, Durbin, and Wyden all losing, maybe even Van Hollen or Schumer, reducing the Democrats to stable footing in just California and New England.

The truth is that there's a lot of ground between 1994 and 1894 because Republicans have been the minority party for nearly a century. They haven't had many solid-but-not-dominant majorities, which is what we're looking at.

I'd be curious to know what the House and Senate results would look like if the Democrats suffered 1894-scale losses, particularly the House.