What would have been your guess for the election map if a timetraveler told you some time in late September/early October that Biden would beat Trump in the national popular vote 81 to 74 million votes (51.3% to 46.8%)?
I would have predicted this map (which was actually my prediction before the election):
✓ Former Vice President Joseph R. Biden (D-DE)/Senator Kamala D. Harris (D-CA): 334 EV. (51.30%)
President Donald J. Trump (R-FL)/Vice President Michael R. Pence (R-IN): 204 EV. (46.80%)
Don't want to be nitpicky, but you used the wrong electoral votes decade (the first time TX will have 40 electoral votes and FL 30 will be 2024, not 2020).
Anyway, I would definitely rule out OH and IA flipping. I would probably have FL go blue, GA maybe go red, and perhaps have NC go blue (quite high a chance I do the first, about 60-40 I do the second, and 40-60 I do the third).
