If you were told the popular vote a month before: Your map prediction

[President Johnson]

What would have been your guess for the election map if a timetraveler told you some time in late September/early October that Biden would beat Trump in the national popular vote 81 to 74 million votes (51.3% to 46.8%)?

I would have predicted this map (which was actually my prediction before the election):



✓ Former Vice President Joseph R. Biden (D-DE)/Senator Kamala D. Harris (D-CA): 334 EV. (51.30%)
President Donald J. Trump (R-FL)/Vice President Michael R. Pence (R-IN): 204 EV. (46.80%)

[patzer]

Close Biden states (D+0 to D+6): NH, MN, NE-02, MI, WI, PA, NV
Close Trump states (R+0 to R+6): AZ, FL, NC, ME-02, GA, IA, OH, TX

[OSR stands with Israel]

[Mr. Smith]

Biden/Harris: 332
Trump/Pence: 206

Not too different, but enough crawl back to take Maine CD-2, and Florida follows the R+3 rule.

[GregTheGreat657]

[Sir Mohamed]

This:




Little, friendly notice: The OP and LD Smith accidently used the post 2020 map already.

[Vice President Christian Man]

[Chips]

Looks good.

[Mr. Smith]

This:




Little, friendly notice: The OP and LD Smith accidently used the post 2020 map already.

fixed. Used the system I know best.

[bayareabay]

The same as yours but I would give FL and NC to Trump.

[Pericles]

Probably the same map but without Georgia, so 290 electoral votes for Biden. I wouldn't expect the tipping point state to be quite as close as it was (0.6%), but Georgia evading the national polling error was nice, I thought it was in the same league as North Carolina and maybe Florida rather than voting to their left. NE-02 and ME-02 were both pretty obvious if people actually looked up the margins in 2016.

[Builder Refused]

To complete out the perms and put it out in the water I’m gonna say these same maps, but with FL R, and GA NC D

[Skill and Chance]

Flip GA and FL.  That's all.

[ElectionsGuy]

My actual prediction.

[Schiff for Senate]

What would have been your guess for the election map if a timetraveler told you some time in late September/early October that Biden would beat Trump in the national popular vote 81 to 74 million votes (51.3% to 46.8%)?

I would have predicted this map (which was actually my prediction before the election):



✓ Former Vice President Joseph R. Biden (D-DE)/Senator Kamala D. Harris (D-CA): 334 EV. (51.30%)
President Donald J. Trump (R-FL)/Vice President Michael R. Pence (R-IN): 204 EV. (46.80%)

Don't want to be nitpicky, but you used the wrong electoral votes decade (the first time TX will have 40 electoral votes and FL 30 will be 2024, not 2020).

Anyway, I would definitely rule out OH and IA flipping. I would probably have FL go blue, GA maybe go red, and perhaps have NC go blue (quite high a chance I do the first, about 60-40 I do the second, and 40-60 I do the third).