2018 Midterms with President Rubio

[OSR stands with Israel]

How do you think they would have gone(assuming Republicans have the same majority in both the house and senate they had after OTL 2016). This is how I Think

House: Democrats gain 20 Seats leaving the GOP with a 221-214 House majority. I think without Trump trends dont accelerate fast enough for the Dems to win the house in 2018

Senate: I think the Democrats do better in the Senate as I think they win Missouri and possibly Indiana while they lose Arizona. Rubio though doesn't appoint Sessions so Alabama remains in Republican hands and the senate ends up 53-47 as well(with a gain of 1 instead of 2 though)

Gubernatorial : Dems pick up the close Midwest Gubernatorial seats of IA/OH/SD though fail to pick up KS as Kobach never gets nominated

[President Johnson]

I think Democrats still take the House of Representatives, with a smaller majority. Some flips that were flukes and went back in actual 2020 wouldn't have occurred. For example SC-01, which only flipped because Trump decided to make down Mark Sanford and replace him with a nutcase.

The senate wouldn't have changed, though Republicans would have come out with 54 seats. I doubt Rubio would have appointed Beauregard Attorney General, therefore no 2017 special election occurs.

[OSR stands with Israel]

I think Democrats still take the House of Representatives, with a smaller majority. Some flips that were flukes and went back in actual 2020 wouldn't have occurred. For example SC-01, which only flipped because Trump decided to make down Mark Sanford and replace him with a nutcase.

The senate wouldn't have changed, though Republicans would have come out with 54 seats. I doubt Rubio would have appointed Beauregard Attorney General, therefore no 2017 special election occurs.

How much do you think seats like TX-7/TX-32/Orange County was inevitable due to demographic changes vs due to Trump realignment. I think while demographics did cause changes , I think without Trump those areas stay Republican till 2022/2024 so due to that I think the Republicans keep the House.


Now you could argue Democrats might be able to pull a 2006 with Rubio and win many WWC districts in 2018 to make up for that but I dont think that would happen due to polarization.