Earliest swing state governor call by a major network that isn’t Kansas

[Utah Neolib]

?

[SnowLabrador]

Wisconsin. Evers will lose badly.

[Pericles]

Florida usually reports early and it's not looking that close this time. So the DeSantis win could be the first big story of the night.

[SnowLabrador]

Florida usually reports early and it's not looking that close this time. So the DeSantis win could be the first big story of the night.

I don't consider Florida a swing state anymore.

[Xing]

Florida and New Hampshire.

[MT Treasurer]

FL and NH are barely swing states at this point. I’ll go with WI here (for the GOP) — not only do the R areas usually report first, but if there are sharp swings (from 2020) combined with off-the-charts turnout in the WOW counties, with Kleefisch running very close to Walker 2018 levels, Evers is basically gone and they will be able to call it fairly quickly. His only hope lies in those counties and hoping that there is enough of a D trend there to offset the rural/small-town collapse elsewhere.

However, it could conceivably be AZ (for the GOP) as well, esp. given how much of the vote there is released early. If you count TX as a swing state, then the answer is TX, but I still think TX is at least a Lean R state.

[ElectionsGuy]

Florida usually reports early and it's not looking that close this time. So the DeSantis win could be the first big story of the night.

So that means the media meltdown will start very early this time.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Florida and New Hampshire.

Florida always takes a while to call even though over 90% of the vote is in very quickly. I doubt the media (with the exception of Fox News) will call Florida for DeSantis before 10PM EST unless he is winning by a large margin.

[Xing]

Florida and New Hampshire.

Florida always takes a while to call even though over 90% of the vote is in very quickly. I doubt the media (with the exception of Fox News) will call Florida for DeSantis before 10PM EST unless he is winning by a large margin.

They called FL-SEN for Rubio right when the polls closed, and he won by a bit less than 8%, so it's definitely plausible that it's called right away for DeSantis. If DeSantis wins by somewhat less than that, it might take a little longer, but it'll still be called relatively early in the night.

And yes, even if Florida leans Republican at this point, you have to have an extremely strict definition of "swing state" not to include it. Same goes for New Hampshire.

[Mr. Smith]

New Hampshire and Texas.

[Real Texan Politics]

I wouldn’t consider New Hampshire a swing state for the governors race, especially with Sununu running again. So I’d say Florida and Wisconsin.

Florida usually reports early and it's not looking that close this time. So the DeSantis win could be the first big story of the night.

So that means the media meltdown will start very early this time.

I’ve seen so many #resist libs on twitter that think the 2020 senate races in Kentucky, South Carolina, and Maine were “stolen.” No doubt in my mind they’ll say the same for the governor races in Florida and possibly Texas, and Georgia as well if Abrams goes down again.

[Cyrusman]

I don’t consider Florida, Texas or NH ( only governors race) to be swing states. Like Others, I’m going with Wisconsin.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

PA obviously, Shapiro is favored like Wolf was and MD Gov with Tom Perez

[David Hume]

Florida and New Hampshire.

Florida always takes a while to call even though over 90% of the vote is in very quickly. I doubt the media (with the exception of Fox News) will call Florida for DeSantis before 10PM EST unless he is winning by a large margin.

They called FL-SEN for Rubio right when the polls closed, and he won by a bit less than 8%, so it's definitely plausible that it's called right away for DeSantis. If DeSantis wins by somewhat less than that, it might take a little longer, but it'll still be called relatively early in the night.

And yes, even if Florida leans Republican at this point, you have to have an extremely strict definition of "swing state" not to include it. Same goes for New Hampshire.

At governor level, Florida is not a swing state. R keep winning for more than 20 years.

[Figueira]

What does "swing state" even mean in this context?

[Minnesota Mike]

Why exclude Kansas? What is classified as a swing state?