George McGovern almost beat Trump in Hennepin County

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Haha, this is pretty incredible. Despite the population increase and the fact that Nixon actually carried the county...McGovern still received just 30 fewer votes than Trump 2020:

Trump 2020: 205,973
McGovern 1972: 205,943

And that means that McGovern still beat Trump's 2016 (191,770) number. In fact Trump's 2020 numbers were also beat by every Republican candidate from Gerald Ford onward with the exception of his 2016 numbers and Clinton's opponents (when Perot took significantly from both.) And even Nixon in 1960 beat Trump's 2016 numbers and was just 7k short of his 2020.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This is wild. Any reason why this might be the case?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

This is wild. Any reason why this might be the case?

Trump was a really really REALLY bad candidate for Hennepin County.

[lfromnj]

This is wild. Any reason why this might be the case?

 A side factor is that Minneapolis hasn't grown. It did grow a lot from 2010 to 2020 but that was recovery back to its 1970 census.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

This is wild. Any reason why this might be the case?

 A side factor is that Minneapolis hasn't grown. It did grow a lot from 2010 to 2020 but that was recovery back to its 1970 census.

I'm still pretty sure that there were more votes cast in Minneapolis in 2020 than in 1972 and wouldn't be surprised if Nixon received twice as many votes as Trump did in Minneapolis.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This is wild. Any reason why this might be the case?

 A side factor is that Minneapolis hasn't grown. It did grow a lot from 2010 to 2020 but that was recovery back to its 1970 census.

I'm still pretty sure that there were more votes cast in Minneapolis in 2020 than in 1972 and wouldn't be surprised if Nixon received twice as many votes as Trump did in Minneapolis.

Isn't it also the case that voters who left Minneapolis and moved to the suburbs were disproportionately R-friendly? With this having the side effect that the R floor in the city, regardless of who the Rs nominated, would decline.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

This is wild. Any reason why this might be the case?

 A side factor is that Minneapolis hasn't grown. It did grow a lot from 2010 to 2020 but that was recovery back to its 1970 census.

I'm still pretty sure that there were more votes cast in Minneapolis in 2020 than in 1972 and wouldn't be surprised if Nixon received twice as many votes as Trump did in Minneapolis.

Isn't it also the case that voters who left Minneapolis and moved to the suburbs were disproportionately R-friendly? With this having the side effect that the R floor in the city, regardless of who the Rs nominated, would decline.

Maybe but the point is those voters' contemporary equivalents have now turned far more hostile to the Republicans. And that's why the Republicans can't win Minnesota.

[Calthrina950]

This is wild. Any reason why this might be the case?

 A side factor is that Minneapolis hasn't grown. It did grow a lot from 2010 to 2020 but that was recovery back to its 1970 census.

I'm still pretty sure that there were more votes cast in Minneapolis in 2020 than in 1972 and wouldn't be surprised if Nixon received twice as many votes as Trump did in Minneapolis.

Isn't it also the case that voters who left Minneapolis and moved to the suburbs were disproportionately R-friendly? With this having the side effect that the R floor in the city, regardless of who the Rs nominated, would decline.

Maybe but the point is those voters' contemporary equivalents have now turned far more hostile to the Republicans. And that's why the Republicans can't win Minnesota.

I wonder how long the Democratic winning streak in Minnesota will continue for. As I've said before, Minnesota never voted Democratic between 1860, when it first participated in a presidential election, and 1932, when Franklin D. Roosevelt won it. That is a period of 72 years. If we assume that a comparable period of time passes from 1972, when it last voted Republican, that means Minnesota wouldn't vote Republican again until 2044 at the earliest.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This is wild. Any reason why this might be the case?

 A side factor is that Minneapolis hasn't grown. It did grow a lot from 2010 to 2020 but that was recovery back to its 1970 census.

I'm still pretty sure that there were more votes cast in Minneapolis in 2020 than in 1972 and wouldn't be surprised if Nixon received twice as many votes as Trump did in Minneapolis.

Isn't it also the case that voters who left Minneapolis and moved to the suburbs were disproportionately R-friendly? With this having the side effect that the R floor in the city, regardless of who the Rs nominated, would decline.

Maybe but the point is those voters' contemporary equivalents have now turned far more hostile to the Republicans. And that's why the Republicans can't win Minnesota.

I wonder how long the Democratic winning streak in Minnesota will continue for. As I've said before, Minnesota never voted Democratic between 1860, when it first participated in a presidential election, and 1932, when Franklin D. Roosevelt won it. That is a period of 72 years. If we assume that a comparable period of time passes from 1972, when it last voted Republican, that means Minnesota wouldn't vote Republican again until 2044 at the earliest.

It's not impossible the streak goes on that long. Though only God knows.

[Brittain33]

This is wild. Any reason why this might be the case?

Trump was a really really REALLY bad candidate for Hennepin County.

Also, McGovern was a regional candidate for Minnesota.