Why are the Florida Democrats so incompetent?

[kwabbit]

To add on, much of this sentiment comes from the 'everything is trending Dem' mindset often present on this forum and other sources of electoral mindset. There are a lot of states that have trended Dem as they have gotten more diverse as time has gone on, 'demographics are destiny', such as VA, CO, GA, AZ. There are a lot of states where the Dems have suffered from the countertrends, 'WI, MI, OH, PA', but there's still a lot of denialism when it comes to the new partisanship of those states. That leaves only a few states that fit into the 'Dem states of the future' that didn't turn out that way, primarily NV, NC, and FL. When people talk about incompetent state parties, these states are the ones often mentioned for the Democratic party, such as the recent thread asking why Democrats don't invest in NV. The simple reality is that not every state will become increasingly Democratic and just because there are plenty of minorities doesn't mean that it'll belong to the group that does trend left.

[OSR stands with Israel]

They have neglected an important component in winning/being competitive: registering new voters into their party. They had success on this front in the mid-2000s (as part of the DNC’s 50-state strategy back then) when they increased their voter registration advantage by over 300K net voters from 2004 to 2008, but they mostly neglected these efforts in the 2010s which has resulted in Republicans winning most statewide races here since 2012, as well as them overtaking Democrats in terms of registered voters late last year.

Seriously, why did Obama kill this?

Because he simply wanted to use the Democratic Party to get himself elected rather than others.

I'm not sure if Democrats will ever recover electorally from the damage Obama inflicted upon them downballot and upon their party infrastructure.

His Presidency basically did what Eisenhower did to Republicans in the 1950s, make them pretty much a minor party below the Presidency.

The worst part is that he cost Dems Scalia’s Supreme Court seat due to Dems doing so poorly in the 2010 and 2014 senate elections.

That was Clinton lmao

Democrats had 213 house seats, 50 senate seats and nearly half of the state legislature chambers after 2000(16*2+16=  48).


After 2016 Democrats had 194 house seats, 48 senate seats and less than a third of state legislative chambers(14*2+4 = 32) .


https://web.education.wisc.edu/nwhillman/index.php/2017/02/01/party-control-in-congress-and-state-legislatures/

[kwabbit]

I don't think they're particularly incompetent. It seems as though many people just expect Cubans to become 70 % Democratic because they are Hispanic, ignoring the rather unique socioeconomic and cultural factors that lead to Cubans being so Republican in the first place. When you stop looking at Florida Hispanics as just wayward Democrats, Florida's partisanship makes much more sense. The state doesn't have an especially high Black population, its White population isn't educated, and is disproportionately elderly. Seems like a lean R state to me.

This, although part of the perceived surprise/disappointment from Dems about Florida has to do with non-Cuban Latinos (mostly Puerto Ricans throughout the state but also Venezuelans and Haitians in South Florida). There was some discussion on here of the role WhatsApp and QAnon-style conspiracy theories played with R gains among the Puerto Rican community.

I don't think conspiracies play a strong role in the rightward movement of Puerto Ricans. All groups with low education attainment moved right in the Trump area, regardless of race. Venezuelan movement can be attributed to the spectacular collapse of the Venezuelan state in recent years. The bleeding of the Caribbean population does play an underrated role, along with the decreasing Jewishness of the Miami metro area. The Caribbean population wasn't as strongly Democratic to begin with as African Americans, nor do they have the same history of slavery and discrimination in the United States or the same powerful institutions, like the Black Church, to keep them organized and mobilized as Democratic voters as African Americans. The decreasing Jewishness plays a role in the slipping Democratic margins in Palm Beach. Democratic really need to run up the score in SE Florida, and the trends in that area are not on their side.

[EastwoodS]

They have neglected an important component in winning/being competitive: registering new voters into their party. They had success on this front in the mid-2000s (as part of the DNC’s 50-state strategy back then) when they increased their voter registration advantage by over 300K net voters from 2004 to 2008, but they mostly neglected these efforts in the 2010s which has resulted in Republicans winning most statewide races here since 2012, as well as them overtaking Democrats in terms of registered voters late last year.

Seriously, why did Obama kill this?

Because he simply wanted to use the Democratic Party to get himself elected rather than others.

I'm not sure if Democrats will ever recover electorally from the damage Obama inflicted upon them downballot and upon their party infrastructure.

His Presidency basically did what Eisenhower did to Republicans in the 1950s, make them pretty much a minor party below the Presidency.

The worst part is that he cost Dems Scalia’s Supreme Court seat due to Dems doing so poorly in the 2010 and 2014 senate elections.

That was Clinton lmao

Democrats had 213 house seats, 50 senate seats and nearly half of the state legislature chambers after 2000(16*2+16=  48).


After 2016 Democrats had 194 house seats, 48 senate seats and less than a third of state legislative chambers(14*2+4 = 32) .


https://web.education.wisc.edu/nwhillman/index.php/2017/02/01/party-control-in-congress-and-state-legislatures/

The realignments don’t always look the same but I wish avatars would realize what Clinton did for Democrats on the presidential level already🙄

[Person Man]

They seem to have no idea how to build a winning coalition, which requires support from a number of different voting blocs in a state like Florida. It’s not as simple as winning a large amount of the vote in one or two specific metro areas. We can see how they assumed that Clinton’s gains among Latinos in South Florida would be permanent, and thus thought that small shifts elsewhere would be enough to flip the state.

Florida is Lean R at this point. It just is what it is.

Coalition-building in Florida is very difficult. Its Latin population is far more conservative (and white) than just about anywhere else in the US, not only on the "socialism" issue but on other cultural issues. Democrats can only make inroads with Cubans, Venezuelans, and Colombians by coming out so hard against socialism that they end up signaling to laborers and working-class youth that they don't want their votes.

Ultimately, I think that Florida is out of reach for Dems anyway because unlike Texas or Georgia, retirees flock there in such huge numbers that any demographic change that benefits Dems is neutralized.

Florida is becoming more expensive and may lose some of its appeal to old rich people in the future. Really interested in how the $15 minimum wage turns out.

[MATTROSE94]

Hot take here, but FL-GOV 2022 is absolutely winnable, but yes Fried's campaigning is awful, and I'd much rather Crist be nominated. Anyways, I seriously hope they don't give up on the state, for one, it's basically impossible for me to see a D Senate majority after 2024 where they don't win Florida in at least one of 2022/2024, given Dems are basically guaranteed 3 losses on that map (MT, WV, OH). Democrats should absolutely be campaigning among the Cuban community more, Biden's Hispanic outreach was a total disaster and we saw the result of that. Of course too many Democrats have just let all of the close calls in Florida convince them that it's fools gold or something, which is of course, very stupid strategy. Anyways, here's to hoping that DeSantis is hated enough by Democratic donors that Crist (or god forbid Fried) have the millions that they'll need to compete in this race.

I agree. The Democrats really screwed up in 2020 and 2022 by not doing in person campaigning. Zoom events are not a good way to reach out to prospective voters.

[Mr.Phips]

They have neglected an important component in winning/being competitive: registering new voters into their party. They had success on this front in the mid-2000s (as part of the DNC’s 50-state strategy back then) when they increased their voter registration advantage by over 300K net voters from 2004 to 2008, but they mostly neglected these efforts in the 2010s which has resulted in Republicans winning most statewide races here since 2012, as well as them overtaking Democrats in terms of registered voters late last year.

Seriously, why did Obama kill this?

Because he simply wanted to use the Democratic Party to get himself elected rather than others.

I'm not sure if Democrats will ever recover electorally from the damage Obama inflicted upon them downballot and upon their party infrastructure.

His Presidency basically did what Eisenhower did to Republicans in the 1950s, make them pretty much a minor party below the Presidency.

The worst part is that he cost Dems Scalia’s Supreme Court seat due to Dems doing so poorly in the 2010 and 2014 senate elections.

That was Clinton lmao

Democrats had 213 house seats, 50 senate seats and nearly half of the state legislature chambers after 2000(16*2+16=  48).


After 2016 Democrats had 194 house seats, 48 senate seats and less than a third of state legislative chambers(14*2+4 = 32) .


https://web.education.wisc.edu/nwhillman/index.php/2017/02/01/party-control-in-congress-and-state-legislatures/

The realignments don’t always look the same but I wish avatars would realize what Clinton did for Democrats on the presidential level already🙄

What did holding the Presidency more often get Democrats other than Obamacare?  They haven’t been able to advance much in the way of their policy and are worse off on the Supreme Court than they were before Clinton came along.

[Mr.Phips]

Hot take here, but FL-GOV 2022 is absolutely winnable, but yes Fried's campaigning is awful, and I'd much rather Crist be nominated. Anyways, I seriously hope they don't give up on the state, for one, it's basically impossible for me to see a D Senate majority after 2024 where they don't win Florida in at least one of 2022/2024, given Dems are basically guaranteed 3 losses on that map (MT, WV, OH). Democrats should absolutely be campaigning among the Cuban community more, Biden's Hispanic outreach was a total disaster and we saw the result of that. Of course too many Democrats have just let all of the close calls in Florida convince them that it's fools gold or something, which is of course, very stupid strategy. Anyways, here's to hoping that DeSantis is hated enough by Democratic donors that Crist (or god forbid Fried) have the millions that they'll need to compete in this race.

What are Dems going to think about Florida when DeSantis beats Crist by something like 53%-45%?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Hot take here, but FL-GOV 2022 is absolutely winnable, but yes Fried's campaigning is awful, and I'd much rather Crist be nominated. Anyways, I seriously hope they don't give up on the state, for one, it's basically impossible for me to see a D Senate majority after 2024 where they don't win Florida in at least one of 2022/2024, given Dems are basically guaranteed 3 losses on that map (MT, WV, OH). Democrats should absolutely be campaigning among the Cuban community more, Biden's Hispanic outreach was a total disaster and we saw the result of that. Of course too many Democrats have just let all of the close calls in Florida convince them that it's fools gold or something, which is of course, very stupid strategy. Anyways, here's to hoping that DeSantis is hated enough by Democratic donors that Crist (or god forbid Fried) have the millions that they'll need to compete in this race.

What are Dems going to think about Florida when DeSantis beats Crist by something like 53%-45%?

Lol it's not over until it's over like Jane's Carville said

[sg0508]

Since Jeb Bush was in office, the GOP is far more organized in their ground game, and it's been that way for 25 years.  The Democrats are still run by people in the Stone Age..literally.

[Thank you for being a friend...]

The state is quite rich, and those wealthy people come out to vote for Republicans.

Florida is like the Republican California - you've pretty much got to be against taxes and spending to win over the voters and why would they want to vote Democratic when they can just vote for their Republican incumbent.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

There has always been a Cuban Embargo on FL, making the GOP party advantages in FL