What's the worst thing that could happen to Republicans before the midterms?

[Tekken_Guy]

What's the absolute worst thing that could happen to Republicans before midterms?

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

imo it's that Trump drops dead.

[Blue3]

Manchin, Sinema, and any other Senate Democrats flip on both BBB and the filibuster.

And, in a frustrating way, it would also hurt Republicans if COVID disappeared and all the focus on masks/vaccines/schools.

[Hermit For Peace]

imo it's that Trump drops dead.

Either that or his "subjects" come out of their self-induced stupor -- like coming out of a coma -- and see that the rest of the country has moved on already. Trump is a pariah.

[Suburbia]

Roe vs. Wade is gone and women of all races turnout in droves to elect Democrats, and the white female vote is reduced for the GOP

[HillGoose]

a video of the Republican elephant smoking crack gets released, and they lose every election except the one for Mayor of Washington DC

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Videotape of McConnell and McCarthy calling Trump a socialist is released.

[7,052,770]

Are we talking about what hurts their chances of winning in November, or what hurts their preferred policy goals?

[Pink Panther]

Trump changes his mind on the whole Patriot Party idea.

[Tekken_Guy]

Are we talking about what hurts their chances of winning in November, or what hurts their preferred policy goals?

How about examples for both?

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Are we talking about what hurts their chances of winning in November, or what hurts their preferred policy goals?

How about examples for both?

Chances of winning:

Trump throws a fit over something and bolts the party, starting the America party and getting candidates on the ballot in a majority of states with contested elections.

Policy goals:

Several of their senior leaders die and their replacements surprisingly demonstrate both a conscience and patriotism (the real thing, not empty sloganeering and flag molesting). 

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

Roe v. Wade bring gutted in June is a very plausible scenario at this point, and I do think it would probably harm the GOP at least a bit in November, although I think it’s really hard to definitively conclude exactly what the political ramifications of that would be.

I agree that Trump reneging on the GOP would be very bad news for them, but I don’t see that happening, so my mind went to Roe being gutted first because I do actually find that to be a probable situation.

[Klobmentum Mutilated Herself]

Trump becomes an anti-racist social democrat, divorces Melania and marries a transgender Mexican Muslim woman, gets dual citizenship in China and joins the CCP, and personally vaccinates every person at a MAGA (Make America Green Again) rally. 

[DaleCooper]

Biden and the Democratic Party come out and proclaim that America is done with the pandemic and all regulations come to an end. Then Democrats aggressively campaign on being the party that brought America back to normalcy.

[Sir Mohamed]

A new Covid variant killing elder people and unvaccinated en masse.

[Hope For A New Era]

Roe v Wade overturned + Democrats getting a lot more of their agenda through + omicron being so mild and so contagious that the pandemic is no longer an issue within a few months

[Ferguson97]

SCOTUS goes too far and overturns Obergefell.

Trump starts a Patriot Party.

[Person Man]

Roe v Wade overturned + Democrats getting a lot more of their agenda through + omicron being so mild and so contagious that the pandemic is no longer an issue within a few months

That's how we are going to get a 2002-like result. I would go so far to say Democrats pass something significant above and beyond what they did but the ultimate things are 1) Roe overruled and 2) the pandemic lessening.

I give Roe v. Wade about a 70% chance of being overruled, a 20% chance that they just uphold the law and ignore Roe v. Wade (that could work with Jackson, but not Dobbs),  with about a 1-2% chance of SCOTUS chickening out entirely. The rest of the probability goes to some sort of late-term abortion carve out or something like that.

I give the pandemic dropping out of the top 3 or 4 issues a 60% chance of happening.

The Democrats passing something worthwhile is about 30%.

There's probably a 10% chance of some Black Swan crippling the Republican brand. Same for the Democrats.

[Xing]

Trump decides to abandon the party and encourages his supporters to vote third party.

[Del Tachi]

Electorally, it's probably getting a bad crop of senate nominee