If the pandemic never happened what would the results have been?

[MT Treasurer]

Biden was essentially the same kind of establishment candidate that Hillary was; if Trump had not been distracted by culture wars, he could have employed the same playbook he used against Hillary to win re-election.

Except, again, Biden was never as unpopular as Clinton. "Culture wars" like COVID-related restrictions and riots were probably the only reason the election was even this close.

He also very much did try to employ the same playbook he used against Clinton, it just didn’t stick.

[MT Treasurer]

Biden was essentially the same kind of establishment candidate that Hillary was; if Trump had not been distracted by culture wars, he could have employed the same playbook he used against Hillary to win re-election.

Except, again, Biden was never as unpopular as Clinton. "Culture wars" like COVID-related restrictions and riots were probably the only reason the election was even this close.

He also very much did try to employ the same playbook he used against Clinton, it just didn’t stick.

And the riots probably don't happen without COVID, at least not nearly to the same extent that they did in real life.

I should add that I still think COVID overall was a net negative for Trump, but that had more to do with how his handling of the pandemic became entangled with/inseparable from his personal conduct/unpopularity. If he hadn’t acted like the narcissist he is, he could have turned it into a winning issue (or at least a neutral one) rather than one which continuously reminded everyone of his egomania.

It definitely was a winnable election for Republicans, and it’s one any halfway competent Republican President with that record would have won. Even Trump had an incumbency advantage in 2020, it just wasn’t enough against an opponent far more popular/uncontroversial than Clinton. Of course Republicans also underperformed the overall fundamentals in 2018, again under Trump — if you look back on the entire Trump presidency/candidacy, it’s entirely possible that Trump's unpopularity and unique issues as a candidate delayed/concealed a Republican realignment which is only becoming evident now (as opposed to after November 2014, if a more skilled figure had led the party and won the nomination in 2016/been reelected in 2020). This might also partly explain why Democrats seem to be struggling so much right now — the Trump elections actually made the country look more Democratic than it is. Of course this is quite a different view from "Trump was the most electable candidate in 2016," but it’s one I’ve held for quite some time now. This also explains why the "low-propensity Trump voters" theory never really materialized this year.