India 2022 assembly elections Feb/Mar and Nov/Dec

[jaichind]

How prevalent is the use of English for government business? What languages are used in the LS?

One can use English or Hindi in the LS with an MP being able to use his/her local language if they cannot speak either.  Same for intra-state communications, Hindi or English. Due to the fear of Hindi being imposed on them Dravidian states have always insisted on using English for intra-state official communication.  What Amit Shah is proposing is that English be removed and Hindi be the only language used between states.  This was met with very strong opposition from the Dravidian states and most likely nothing will come of it.

[jaichind]

1 LS 4 assembly by-elections result out.  Pretty poor for BJP.  Most were expected but the Bihar result was very bad news for BJP.

WB (AITC is the ruling party so by-elections should go AITC's way)

Asansol LS - sitting BJP MP Babul Supriyo resigned and defected to AITC to run in a WB assembly by-election.  

Results
AITC     57.2%  (a former BJP MP from Bihar that has since defected to INC and then AITC)
BJP       30.9%
CPM       7.9%
INC        1.3%

2019 results
BJP       51.2%  (Babul Supriyo)
AITC     35.2%
CPM       7.1%
INC        1.7%

Note that Asansol used to be a CPM stronghold before becoming a BJP stronghold in 2014.  AITC has never won from this seat before.

Ballygunge assembly - sitting AITC MLA passed away in this AITC stronghold. Asansol LS BJP MP Babul Supriyo defected to AITC to run for this seat.

Results
AITC      50.3% (Babul Supriyo, former BJP MP that has defected to AITC)
CPM       30.4%
BJP        13.0%
INC         5.1%

2021 results
AITC      71.2%
BJP        20.9%
CPM        5.7% (with INC support)

This district is heavy Muslim.  Running an ex-BJP MP allowed AITC to eat into the BJP Hindu vote while part of the AITC Muslim vote shifted to CPM.




Chhattisgarh - Khairagarh assembly - sitting JCC MLA passed away - INC is ruling party so by-election should go INC's way which it did

Result
INC        53.8%
BJP         41.5%
JCC          0.7%

2018 results
JCC        36.7%
BJP        36.2%
INC        19.0%

JCC was an INC splinter and most of the JCC vote went back to INC in this by-election




Maharashtra - Kolhapur North assembly - sitting INC MLA passed away.  SHS-NCP-INC is the ruling party so the result should lean INC.

Results
INC       54.8% (backed by SHS-NCP) (widow of old INC MLA)
BJP        44.1%

2019 results
INC       52.9% (backed by NCP)
SHS       44.1% (backed by BJP)

Not a bad result for BJP in defeat.  They were able to hold on to the old SHS-BJP vote from 2019 despite SHS being the ruling party and backing INC.




Bihar - Bochahan - sitting VIP MLA passed away.  BJP and VIP running separately as VIP leaves NDA.  The result was a shock defeat for BJP

Result
RJD       49.4% (backed by Left front, son of 2020 VIP candidate)
BJP        27.5% (backed by JD(U) and RLJP; former MLA from this district)
VIP        17.5% (daughter of 2020 RJD candidate)
INC         0.7%

2020 result
VIP        43.5% (backed by BJP, JD(U))
RJD        37.2% (backed by INC and Left Front)
LJP          4.6% (aligned with BJP at the national level)

It seems the JD(U) vote shifted to RJD and VIP dealing a big defeat for BJP.  In 2020 BJP egged LJP to leave NDA and ran in seats that JD(U) was running and hitting JD(U) hard making BJP the senior party in Bihar NDA.  Last few months there are constant Bihar BJP talks that JD(U) CM Nitish Kumar should step down to make way for a BJP CM.  The JD(U) base seems to have revolted in response to crossing over to RJD or VIP in a seat that the BJP should win given the fact that the NDA is the ruling party.    

2025 Bihar assembly election now seems tilted in favor of RJD as the JD(U)-BJP alliance by 2025 might collapse or be so tenuous as to make it easy for RJD to win.

[jaichind]

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/political-strategist-prashant-kishor-meets-sonia-gandhi-rahul-gandhi-amid-renewed-buzz-about-joining-congress-2892635

"Prashant Kishor Asked To Join Party, Has Drawn Up 2024 Plan: Congress"

Prashant Kishor attend a meeting with all senior INC leaders and presented an INC strategy for the 2024 LS election.  He also asked to join INC to implement his plan.  It seems INC leaders will discuss and get back to him within a week.

It is clear that Young Turks centered around Rahul Gandhi will be for Prashant Kishor coming aboard and running the 2024 LS election while the old guard centered around Sonia Gandhi most likely will be opposed.  We will soon know which faction wins out.

It also seems Prashant Kishor is making a gamble of his lifetime  If he can run the 2024 INC LS election and get INC to do a lot better than in 2014 and 2019 then he will go down as one of the greatest Indian political strategists of his generation.  If not then of course he will just be known as someone that is good a getting on a bandwagon of a side that was going to win anyway (which is what he is accused of by his distractors.)

[jaichind]

Uttarakhand result maps

2022

 
2017


2012



BJP retained ground from 2017 in areas with high concentration of Hindu which is symbolic of the Upper Caste vote holding steady for BJP in 2022 despite historical trends of this voting bloc swing between BJP and INC


Back in 2012 the BJP actually did better in areas of lower Hindu concentration where there was Hindu consolidation behind BJP while the Hindu vote was split in areas of high Hindu concentration.

[jaichind]

https://www.deccanherald.com/state/40-commission-contractors-announce-massive-protest-1095269.html

"40% commission: Contractors announce massive protest"

In Karnataka, the contractors are threatening a mass protest over what they call the "40% government" where 40% of all government spending are stolen by the MPs and MLAs.  They claim that under INC before 2018 it was the "10% government" but now it has turned into "40% government"

More news on this

https://www.hindustantimes.com/cities/bengaluru-news/karnataka-contractor-death-case-cm-bommai-accepts-eshwarappa-s-resignation-101650084187174.html

"Karnataka contractor death case: CM Bommai accepts Eshwarappa's resignation"

It seems a Karnataka contractor committed suicide over a minister pushing him to pay the 40% bribe.  The minister in question has resigned.

and then

https://zeenews.india.com/india/rampant-corruption-in-karnataka-state-govt-takes-30-cut-from-grants-for-mutts-alleges-top-lingayat-seer-2455170.html

"Rampant corruption in Karnataka, state govt takes 30% cut from grants for mutts, alleges top Lingayat seer"

A Lingayat seer (really an abbot) claims that for all government funding for Lingayat temples the ministers take a 30% cut.  Lingayats a are a fairly pro-BJP group.

[jaichind]

Using Uttarakhand map on Hindu concentration


We can look at 2012 vs 2017 vs 2022 results by seats which are High Hindu concentration and Low Hindu concentration

High Hindu concentration
                            2022                                      2017                                     2012
                   Seats       Vote Share              Seats          Vote Share          Seats          Vote Share
BJP                40             48.48%                 41                47.42%            19                33.81%
BJP Rebel                          2.55%                                      4.34%                                 2.50%
URM                                                                                                                           2.36%
INC                 9              37.94%                  7                33.91%            27                36.03%
INC Rebel        1                2.13%                  2                  6.87%              3                  6.15%
UJP                                   1.01%
BSP                                  0.59%                                      2.54%                                  6.64%
AAP                                  2.88%                                      
UKD+                               1.84%                                      1.19%                                  2.83%



Low Hindu concentration
                            2022                                      2017                                       2012
                   Seats       Vote Share              Seats          Vote Share             Seats         Vote Share
BJP                  7             38.44%                 16                46.25%                12              31.92%
BJP Rebel                          1.70%                                      1.07%                                    0.18%
URM                                                                                                                               1.07%
INC                10             38.76%                  4                33.70%                   5              29.76%
INC Rebel        1                1.94%                                     0.60%                                     4.17%
BSP                 2              12.01%                                    14.68%                  3              22.15%
AAP                                  4.11%                                      
 
URM is a BJP splinter that eventually merged into UKD.  UJP is an INC splinter.

BJP actually did not lose any vote share in the High Hindu concentration areas and only lost 1 seat.  INC made significant gains in the Low Hindu concentration seats.  Looking at BSP vote share it is clear that BSP is more of a Muslim party in Uttarakhand as its Dalit base has mostly gone over to BJP.  BSP did gain 2 seats in 2022 due to anti-BJP tactical voting in Muslim seats.

So the narrative is that in 2017 BJP did well in Low Hindu areas due to Hindu anti-Muslim consolidation as BSP Dalit base from 2012 shifted to the BJP.  In 2022 this anti-Muslim consolidation did not take place leading to INC gains in low Hindu concentration areas.  But in high Hindu concentration areas, the Upper caste vote there stayed loyal to BJP when historically they tend to swing back and forth between INC and BJP.  Also in high Hindu concentration areas, the BJP managed to minimize the impact of BJP rebels even as the ruling party whereas in 2017 INC defeat in high Hindu concentration areas were made a landslide defeat by INC rebels.

[jaichind]

Leaked versions of Prashant Kishor's proposal for INC revival are

1) 2024 INC PM face will NOT be Rahul Gandhi
2) INC Communications department dismantled and rebuilt from scratch
3) One Family One ticket
4) Fixed terms for top INC offices
5) Working Prez of INC is not a Gandhi (Sonia or Rahul Gandhi can still be overall Prez but they will become nominal figureheads being as a symbol to unify the various INC factions)
6) Totally redo party funding strategy
7) New alliances with regional parties where INC is weak
8 ) Grassroot worker recruitment drive

Most of these things I think top INC functionaries should be able to come up with.  But they are most likely too intimidated by Gandhis to voice these ideas.  James Carville pointed out before that his political consultancy service is mostly to say to their clients what they know needs to take place but since the consultancy has prestige (James Carville being famous for planning several successful elections) their clients are more likely to take their advice seriously.

7) to be fair has been tried by INC.  INC has allied with SP in UP (2017), and has long-time alliances with RJD in Bihar, JMM in Jharkhand, DMK and TN etc I assume what Prashant Kishor would recommend is to ally with YSRCP in AP (make sense), AITC in WB (make sense) and perhaps NPP in various NE states to blunt the surge of the BJP there (make sense if NPP is game) BJD in Odisha (make sense if BJD is game.   Less logical might be alliance with JD(S) in Karnataka and TRS in Telangana.  In parts of Karnataka and Telangana, the INC base overlaps with JD(S) and TRS so at best a tactical alliance might make sense there but not a full alliance which would just drive INC JD(S) and TRS leaders left out of the alliance to jump over to BJP.

Overall this plan will pretty much write the Gandhi clan out of INC's future in the long run.  Not sure if the Gandhi clan will accept this.  We will know soon.

[jaichind]

Guwahati (capital and largest city in Assam) Municipal elections. Another NDA landslide after NDA swept local elections in Assam a few months back.
 
              Seat     Vote share
NDA         58           67.7%
   BJP        52             60.6%
   AGP         6              7.2%
INC            0           14.0%
AJP            1              3.9%
AAP           1            10.9%

Going ward by ward it seems it was the pro-NDA Hindu vote that came out to vote NDA and the Muslim vote that came out to vote against the NDA with the anti-NDA Hindu vote mostly missing in action or even voting NDA figuring it is better to have a municipal government that is aligned with the state government to get the right level of subsidies.

AAP's performance is strong and a warning sign to INC.

[jaichind]

Rumors are that INC's condition for Prashant Kishor to join INC to take a leading role in INC election strategy going forward is that Prashant Kishor cuts off ties to TRS where INC is expected to take on in 2023 assembly elections in Telangana.  It seems Prashant Kishor met with the TRS leader and Telangana CM KCR saying that he can no longer help TRS in 2023 and wishing him the best of luck in 2023.  If so it seems Prashant Kishor is all set to join a desperate INC that seems to be willing to take a risk with Prashant Kishor's strategy.

[S019]

To jaichind: Gujarat is my home state (well my family's home state), so I have an increased interest in their elections. Last time the INC came close-ish, do you believe the party can build on that and win this time, despite their failures elsewhere?

[jaichind]

To jaichind: Gujarat is my home state (well my family's home state), so I have an increased interest in their elections. Last time the INC came close-ish, do you believe the party can build on that and win this time, despite their failures elsewhere?

INC did much better than expected in 2017 mostly due to the revolt of a section of traditional pro-BJP Patel voters in some critical seats mostly due to Patel youth leader Hardik Patel.  The BJP actually got a positive swing with OBC and Dalit voters in 2017 but they were concentrated in non-competitive seats.

This election CW says will be different

a) There is now a Patel BJP CM which should help claw back these Patel voters
b) INC will try to bring in another Patel leader Naresh Patel along with Prashant Kishor but it is risky to have someone without political experience (Naresh Patel )as your CM candidate and INC risks looking like it is pandering to Patels and losing out with other communities (https://thewire.in/politics/gujarat-congress-prashant-kishor-hardik-naresh-patel)
c) Hardik Patel has since joined INC and is now the Gujarat INC working Prez but there are signs that he might leave INC likely due to his concern that Prashant Kishor and Naresh Patel coming aboard would mean he would lose autonomy and position (https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/hardik-patel-removes-congress-from-whatsapp-telegram-bio-rumours-of-exit-bjp-1941575-2022-04-25)
d) There is also the AAP factor which AAP has been eating into the INC vote in various Gujarat local elections.

My sense is that all these factors would mean the pre-election polls would look very bad for INC even if they roped in Prashant Kishor to help them.  Then on vote counting day INC outperforms these bad polls as AAP underperforms.  INC still will lose seats and votes relative to 2017 but it will still be an OK performance.  Of course, that would mean that the BJP would have won its 7th assembly election in a row in Gujarat which would match the Left Front 1977-2006 record of winning 7 WB assembly elections in a row.

If I had to guess 2027 is the year the BJP will risk actually losing.  By then the Modi factor would have faded away and the burden of incumbency at the federal and state level would be so heavy that even the BJP might be defeated.

[jaichind]

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/prashant-kishor-declines-offer-to-join-congress-2921454

"Refused Free Hand, Prashant Kishor Turns Down Offer To Join Congress"

It seems INC was not willing to give Prashant Kishor the free hand to implement radical reforms (aka sideline Gandhi clan).  As a result, Prashant Kishor will not join INC.

[jaichind]

Hindustan Times list of reasons for lack of INC-Prashant Kishor deal


So the INC position is: we want radical change but will not consider reorganizations and changes in roles and responsiblities.

[jaichind]

https://www.news18.com/news/politics/groups-clash-in-patiala-during-march-against-khalistan-deeply-unfortunate-says-cm-mann-as-oppn-condemns-anarchy-in-state-5078149.html

"Firing in Air, Stones Thrown Amid Clash in Patiala During March Against Khalistan; CM 'Closely Watching'"

Clashes in Punjab's Patiala between SHS and pro-Khalistan elements.  I suspect INC is behind getting SHS to hold anti-Khalistan marches to provoke these clashes.  AAP tried to court radical Khalistan elements back in 2017 and ever since then INC has been trying to brand AAP as pro-Khalistan.  It seems these clashes are done to embarrass the new AAP regime.

[jaichind]

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=246937.msg5826704#msg5826704

is a link to a series of writeups I wrote back in 2017 on a history of Gujarat elections up until 2014.

Most likely I will write up something similar for HP and J&K in the coming weeks.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=246937.msg5826704#msg5826704

is a link to a series of writeups I wrote back in 2017 on a history of Gujarat elections up until 2014.

Most likely I will write up something similar for HP and J&K in the coming weeks.

Ah nice!

[jaichind]

https://nenow.in/north-east-news/nagaland/nagaland-21-npf-mlas-join-ndpp.html

"Nagaland: 21 NPF MLAs join NDPP"

Big news in Nagaland.  Majority bloc of NPF merges into NDPP.  

Historically Nagaland has been INC vs NPF with BJP being tiny and de facto backing NPF.  After the Modi wave and BJP became the natural party of governance at the national level the BJP ate up INC support and began its plan to displace NPF.  For the 2018 assembly elections, the BJP worked to create a split in the ruling NPF with NPF splinter NDPP being formed and allying with BJP to take on NPF.  So 2018 it was NDPP-BJP vs NPF vs a very weakened INC.  The result was an NDPP-BJP victory and an INC wipeout and the state became a NDPP-BJP vs NPF state.  NPF even backed INC in the 2019 LS elections.   Then the BJP went on its next move to become supreme in Nagaland.  Starting in 2020 the BJP started to move toward NPF to create a situation where the BJP-NPF alliance can be formed and lead to a BJP CM in a BJP-NPF alliance.  NDPP sensed this betrayal and worked to start its own talks with NPF and got NPF to join the NDPP-BJP government.  Since then the 3 parties have been circling each other ahead of the 2023 assembly elections as 2 of these 3 parties (NDPP BJP NPF) will form an alliance to take on the third.

This news today makes it clear which two decided to come together (NDPP and NPF).  So now the BJP will be faced with a choice of being part of the NDPP-BJP alliance as a junior partner in 2023 in a state with no real opposition (INC still flat on its back) or take on NDPP in 2023 in a NDPP (including most of NPF) vs BJP (perhaps with rump NPF) battle which BJP is likely to lose.

[jaichind]

More maps

[jaichind]

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=246937.msg5826704#msg5826704

is a link to a series of writeups I wrote back in 2017 on a history of Gujarat elections up until 2014.

Most likely I will write up something similar for HP and J&K in the coming weeks.

Just to add to my Gujarat writeup - 2017 Gujarat assembly and 2019 Gujarat LS elections

Gujarat 2017 assembly election saw the BJP Patel vote rebel which led to INC gaining a bunch of seats.   The main reason for this was the BJP changed CM from a Patel, Anandiben Patel, to a non-Patel, Vijay Rupani in 2016.  Anandiben Patel was not doing a great job and was losing support for the BJP but the Patels saw her replacement as a slap in the face for the Patels.  INC had its own rebellion as Shankersinh Vaghela (Modi's mentor in the 1980s) insisted on being the INC CM candidate and formed AIHCP when his demand was rebuffed.  This plus INC failure to rope in NCP caused the INC to miss out on a few seats.  INC was able to rope in JD(U) tribal splinter BTP which added a couple of seats to the INC+ bloc.  The BJP on its part was able to get GPP to merge back with it from its 2012 rebellion as well as make gains with OBC and Dalit votes.  All things equal BJP vote share held up but losing Patel votes in critical swing district cost it net seats.

Gujarat 2017 Assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+         182               80              43.27%    (BTP was part of INC+)

INC rebel                         1                0.67%

NCP            58                 1                0.63%

AIHCP         95                 0                0.28%   (Shankersinh Vaghela INC splinter)

BJP           182               99               49.97%

BJP rebel                        1                 1.40%

BSP          139               0                  0.70%


The 2019 LS election was expected to be closer than 2014 but it turned out that the Modi wave of 2019 if anything was greater than 2014 and BJP won by an even greater landslide than 2014.

Gujarat 2019 LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+          26                 0               31.69%

BJP             26               26               63.08%

BSP            25                 0                0.87%

BTP              6                 0                0.40% (JD(U) tribal splinter)

[jaichind]

Republic TV reports that Prashant Kishor will form his own party.  Not sure if this is true but it will flop for sure if it is.

[jaichind]

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/raj-thackeray-says-he-won-t-listen-to-anyone-from-may-4-on-loudspeaker-issue-will-double-the-volume-of-hanuman-chalisa-101651418933482.html

"Raj Thackeray says he 'won't be responsible for whatever happens from May 4' on loudspeaker issue"

A new front in India's cultural wars after the whole Hijab battles.  SHS splinter MNS leader Raj Thackeray is targeting loudspeakers in mosques that make a call to prayer during parts of the day.   Raj Thackeray is saying that noise levels from these loudspeakers are so high that they should be banned.  Raj Thackeray says that if the SHS-NCP-INC  Maharashtra government does not ban loudspeakers by May 4th he will start a movement to have Hindu hymns being blared out by loudspeakers nonstop throughout the state.

This Raj Thackeray move is mostly related to the upcoming 2022 Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation election.  Historically this election has been a SHS vs INC affair with SHS-BJP slowly gaining an edge over INC by the mid-1990s.  Then came the first SHS-BJP break in the 2014 Maharsatra assembly elections which led to a patch up but had the BJP determined to take in SHS in the 2017  Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation elections leading to a rapid fall in INC support as the election became polarized between SHS and BJP with SHS winning a narrow victory.   For the 2022 elections, it will be SHS-NCP vs BJP vs INC vs NMS.  NMS did well in 2012 but lost a lot of support in the 2017 SHS vs BJP polarization.    With SHS being in a coalition with NCP-INC it is certain that some of the SHS Hindu nationalist votes will be up for grabs.   Raj Thackeray is fearful that the BJP will grab this vote so he started this anti-loudspeaker movement to draw attention to NMS so it can compete for both BJP and SHS votes.

[jaichind]

https://theprint.in/politics/rajs-saffron-shawls-senas-imitation-barbs-its-thackeray-vs-thackeray-in-maharashtra-again/943797/

"Raj’s saffron shawls, Sena’s ‘imitation’ barbs: It’s Thackeray vs Thackeray in Maharashtra again"

SHS splinter MNS leader Raj Thackeray's deadline for his cousin Maharashtra  SHS CM Uddhav Thackeray to remove all loudspeakers in mosques came and went and now MNS workers are blaring Hindu hymns in front of mosques.

In the meantime, even the BJP sees what Raj Thackeray is trying to do is also steal their votes in addition to SHS votes in the upcoming  2022 Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation elections and getting cool on Raj Thackeray

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/before-ayodhya-visit-raj-thackeray-should-bjp-mp-brij-bhushan-sharan-singhs-warning-2949022

"BJP MP Brij Bhushan Sharan Singh said, "Will not allow Raj Thackeray, who humiliates north Indians, enter the Ayodhya border."

[jaichind]

Some political geography of Karnataka which will vote next year for its assembly elections.

[jaichind]

A small election in Mizoram shows how BJP is eating up INC in the Northeast

Mara Autonomous Council elections in Mizoram,  This is one of 3 Autonomous councils in Mizoram

BJP     12
MNF     9 (Mizoram ruling party and pro-BJP)
INC      4

Back in 2017, it was

INC   17
MNF    5
MDF    2
BJP     0

How did BJP go from 0 to 12?  Well in 2017 Mizoram was ruled by INC.  As soon as the pro-BJP MNF won the Mizoram assembly elections in 2018 all 17 INC members on the council defected to BJP since with BJP in charge federally and MNF in charge at the state level they will control all government subsidies.

So as long as the BJP is the natural party of power at the center the INC will lose ground to the BJP step by step with entire organizations built up over the decades going over to the BJP.  Most of the BJP in the Northeast is pretty much built off INC defectors.

[jaichind]

Households in India own refrigerators.  Gives a sense of the relative strength of the mass consumer economy in each state.  The high numbers in Kerala, TN, and Mizoram are more of an indication of the income distribution.  High numbers in the North like HP, Haryana, Punjab, and Uttarakhand indicate the high income and more normal income distribution there.  The richest state Maharastra has a surprisingly low number indicating something about its income distribution.  Similar story for Gujarat.

Also, there is a clear negative correlation with Hindi-speaking areas.  Meaning if you speak Hindi you are not likely to have a refrigerator at home.