India 2022 assembly elections Feb/Mar and Nov/Dec

[jaichind]

BJP offices are decorated with lightning and flower curtains. Tons of Laddos are being prepared for tomorrow's celebrations.

[jaichind]

Its time to apply my exit poll to results algorithm

Again my algorithm (adjusted somewhat) of converting exit polls to seat projection

Again the algorithm is
1) First un-skew Todays Chanakya's exit polls to adjust for its pro-BJP house affect
2) Look at pollsters which did pre-election surveys and exit polls to see if all/most of them point to a particular party is doing better in the exit polls relative to pre-poll survey.  Then
  a) If Yes, then the most optimistic of the exit polls for said party and use that as the projection
  b) If No, then just use the average of exit polls as the projection
3) Is the ruling party/front being defeated using the projection from 2)
 a) If Yes, add some extra seats to the winning opposition party/front
 b) If No, leave result from 2) alone
4) If the winning party is BJP then repeat starting at step 2) WITHOUT un-skewing Todays Chanakya's exit polls
 

UP
Average exit poll
                 BJP+    SP+     BSP    INC    Others
Seats         239       144      12       5         3

There are two pollsters that did pre-election polls and exit polls: ABP-CVoter and Polstrat-NewsX.  For ABP-CVoter the BJP improved a bit in the exit poll and for Polstrat-NewsX BJP fell back a bit in the exit poll.  So no momentum either way so I will go with the exit poll average.  Also, BJP won so there is no need to remove Today's Chanakya from the exit poll average.  

So the exit poll to result projection is

                BJP+    SP+     BSP    INC    Others
Seats        239       144      12       5         3




Uttarakhand
Average exit poll
                 BJP      INC      Others
Seats          33        33           4

Again there are two pollsters that did pre-election polls and exit polls: ABP-CVoter and Polstrat-NewsX.  For both INC outperformed in exit polls.  So we should remove Today's Chanakya from the exit poll average and use a more pro-INC exit poll.  Since this is a defeat of an incumbent party we should add a few extra seats to INC.  I will add only 2 given how inelastic Uttarakhand is.  That gives us

                 BJP      INC      Others
Pro-INC      30        36           4
Shift           -2        +2
Seats         28         38           4

So the exit poll to result projection is
                BJP      INC      Others
Seats        28        38           4




Goa
Average exit poll
                 BJP      INC+     Others
Seats          15        16           9

Again there are two pollsters that did pre-election polls and exit polls: ABP-CVoter and Polstrat-NewsX.  For both polls, BJP lost ground in the exit polls relative to the pre-election polls.   So I will use a pro-INC set of exit polls and add 2 seats from BJP to INC for the defeat of incumbent

                 BJP      INC      Others
Pro-INC      14        17           9
Shift           -2        +2
Seats         12         19          9

So the exit poll to result projection is
                BJP      INC      Others
Seats        12        19           9





Punjab
Average exit poll
                 AAP      INC       SAD+     BJP+      Others
Seats          58        33         20           4            2

Again there are two pollsters that did pre-election polls and exit polls: ABP-CVoter and Polstrat-NewsX.  For ABP-CVoter AAP lost ground in the exit poll while in Polstrat-NewsX AAP gained ground so no net momentum.  As a result, I will use the exit poll average.  But since this is a defeat of the incumbent I will take some seats from INC SAD+ and BJP+ to the winning party AAP.  Punjab is fairly elastic so the shift will be larger.

                 AAP      INC       SAD+     BJP+      Others
Average       58        33         20           4            2
Shift           +7        -4          -2          -1
Seats          65         29         18           3            2

So the exit poll to result projection is
                AAP      INC       SAD+     BJP+      Others
Seats        65        29         18           3            2





Manipur
Average exit poll
                 BJP      INC+     Others
Seats          30        13          17

There was only one pollster, ABP News C-Voter, that did both a pre-election poll and exit poll and they were identical so no momentum.  Since this was not the defeat of the incumbent I will go with the straight exit poll average.

So the exit poll to result projection is
                BJP      INC      Others
Seats        30        13          17

[jaichind]

The count will begin soon.  The rule of thumb is postals come first which tends to lean BJP.  Then as more votes come in either it is neck to neck throughout or the size of the winning party seat margin will grow over time. 

[randomusername]

Obviously very early but I'm surprised by the INC's strength in Manipur thus far. According to the Times of India, right now it is:

17 BJP

14 INC

4 NPP

Easily could go away, but I was expecting very few seats for them.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Does it look like the BJP will get a majority in UP at the moment

[randomusername]

Does it look like the BJP will get a majority in UP at the moment

My general expectation is that they were going to pre-election, more of a question of how much. I'm guessing 260+ seats.

[jaichind]

BJP with large leads in UP, Goa, Uttarakhand, Manipur while AAP on a landslide in Punjab.

[jaichind]

UP

BJP+    238    -53
SP+     102    +61
BSP        7      -7
INC         6     -1
Others     3      --


Uttarakhand
BJP       41    -10
INC      19    +8
BSP        1    +1
AAP        0    --
Other      2    +1


Goa
BJP      20     +9
INC       9     -10
AITC+   3      --
AAP       2     +2
Others   3     --


Punjab
AAP      82    +62
INC      18     -57
SAD+     9      -5
BJP+      4     +1
Others    1     -1


Manipur
BJP       21     +3
INC+    11    -12
NPP        7     +3
JD(U)      5     +5
Others    7      +1

[jaichind]

Total disaster for INC to not be able to capture Goa and Uttarakhand.  Punjab was lost but the scale of defeat is a disaster.

[jaichind]

UP

BJP+    249    -58
SP+     109    +64
BSP        8      -8
INC         8     +1
Others     4     +1


Uttarakhand
BJP       46    -11
INC      20    +9
BSP        1    +1
AAP        0    --
Other      3    +1


Goa
BJP      20     +7
INC     12      -8
AITC+   4      +1
AAP       1     +1
Others   3     -1


Punjab
AAP      85    +65
INC      17     -60
SAD+   10      -5
BJP+      4     +1
Others    1     -1


Manipur
BJP       26     +5
INC+    13    -15
NPP        7     +3
JD(U)      5     +5
Others    9      +2

[jaichind]

Early ECI vote share

UP
BJP       42.4%
SP+      34.6%
BSP      13.1%
INC        2.9%


Uttarakhand
BJP       44.7%
INC       39.1%
BSP        5.2%
AAP        4.3%


Goa
BJP           33.7%
INC-GFP    25.0%
MAG-AITC  13.8%
AAP            7.2%


Punjab
AAP           42.2%
INC           23.0%
SAD-BSP    20.2%
BJP             5.9%


Manipur
BJP           41.4%
INC-CPI     19.6%
NPP           12.1%
JD(U)        11.6%
NPF            6.8%

[jaichind]

BJP seems to hold the India nationalism card which makes it almost impossible to beat outside the Dravidian deep South.  The only way to beat BJP is sub-nationalism.

[jaichind]

BJP at 260 seats in UP.  Going by my logic of the winning party will gain seats until this seat number goes down very soon it will go up and it will not surprise me if BJP hits 300 seats in UP.

[jaichind]

The UP vote share makes it clear that

a) Non-Jatav Dalits went BJP
b) SP gained some non-Yadav OBC from BJP but not that much
c) INC's Muslim base went over to SP
d) Upper caste voted en bloc for BJP

[jaichind]

The only place BJP seems to be underperforming a bit is actually Manipur where it will most likely not win a majority.  NPP and JD(U) are eating into INC and partly BJP vote shares while NPF is holding its own in Naga areas.

[jaichind]

UP

BJP+    259    -63
SP+     128    +76
BSP        7     -12
INC         5     -2
Others     4     +1


Uttarakhand
BJP       44   -13
INC      21   +10
BSP        2    +2
AAP        1    +1
Other      2    --


Goa
BJP      18     +5
INC     14      -6
AITC+   5      +2
AAP       0     ---
Others   3     -1


Punjab
AAP      88    +68
INC      13     -64
SAD+   10      -5
BJP+      5     +2
Others    1     -1


Manipur
BJP       24     +3
INC+    12    -16
NPP      10     +6
JD(U)     6     +6
Others    8     +1

[jaichind]

Early ECI vote share

UP
BJP       42.5%
SP+      34.8%
BSP      13.1%
INC        2.8%


Uttarakhand
BJP       44.5%
INC       38.3%
BSP        5.2%
AAP        4.2%


Goa
BJP           33.4%
INC-GFP    24.7%
MAG-AITC  13.5%
AAP            7.1%


Punjab
AAP           42.0%
INC           23.3%
SAD-BSP    19.9%
BJP             6.4%


Manipur
BJP           39.3%
INC-CPI     18.1%
NPP           14.3%
JD(U)        11.1%
NPF            8.7%

[jaichind]

The seat count is mostly stabilized now.  Again winning party in each state could gain more but it seems the gains are more likely to be limited.

UP

BJP+    263    -59
SP+     126    +74
BSP        6     -13
INC         4     -3
Others     4     +1


Uttarakhand
BJP       42   -15
INC      23   +12
BSP        2    +2
AAP        1    +1
Other      2    --


Goa
BJP      18     +5
INC     13      -7
AITC+   5      +2
AAP       1     +1
Others   3     -1


Punjab
AAP      89    +66
INC      13     -64
SAD+     9      -6
BJP+      5     +2
Others    1     -1


Manipur
BJP       26     +5
INC+    11    -17
NPP      12     +8
JD(U)     3     +3
Others    8     +1

[jaichind]

Early ECI vote share

UP
BJP       42.4%
SP+      35.1%
BSP      12.9%
INC        2.5%

Note BJP+ and SP+ are undercounted in terms of vote share since NISHAD and AD(S) are not counted for BJP while SBSP and other minor SP allies are not counted.  This means BJP+ gained votes relative to 2017 which is quite an accomplishment and speaks to the collapse of the BSP non-Jatav vote base and what is left of INC's upper caste vote.


Uttarakhand
BJP       44.0%
INC       38.9%
BSP        5.1%
AAP        3.9%


Goa
BJP           33.3%
INC-GFP    24.1%
MAG-AITC  13.6%
AAP            7.1%


Punjab
AAP           42.1%
INC           23.2%
SAD-BSP    19.8%
BJP             6.6%

BJP allies PLC and SAD(S) not counted toward BJP+


Manipur
BJP           38.2%
INC-CPI     17.5%
NPP           16.0%
JD(U)        10.8%
NPF            9.0%

NPP surge is significant and is close to overtaking INC as the main opposition to BJP

[jaichind]

It is hard to see how the BJP will lose the 2024 LS elections.  In fact, if BJP continues to ally with AIADMK in TN there is a chance that NDA might gain seats relative to 2024 losing some seats in WB, Karanataka, and Maharastra but gaining in TN and Odisha while keeping its dominant position in Northern India.

[OSR stands with Israel]

It is hard to see how the BJP will lose the 2024 LS elections.  In fact, if BJP continues to ally with AIADMK in TN there is a chance that NDA might gain seats relative to 2024 losing some seats in WB, Karanataka, and Maharastra but gaining in TN and Odisha while keeping its dominant position in Northern India.

Would you say the BJP is the most dominant party since the early 1970s INC at this point or not yet.

[FredLindq]

To summarize:
Goa BJP+MGP? BJP-Hold? BJP 20/40
Manipur BJP+NPF or NPP?    BJP-Hold?   BJP 24/52 (60)
Punjab AAP  AAP-gain AAP 92/117
Uttar Pradesh BJP BJP-hold BJP 253/403
Uttarakhand BJP BJP-Hold BJP 48/70

Goa- Is BJP+MGP likely or will BJP go with someone other?
Manipur - Is  BJP+NPF likely or NPP or both?

[jaichind]

It will soon make sense to report ECI seat count instead.  For now from NDTV.
UP BJP lead grew a bit.  Uttarakhand and Manipur grew a lot as part of the winning party gaining throughout the count.

BSP down to 1 seat in UP, SAD down to 4 seats in Punjab, and INC down to 6 seats in Manipur is just amazing.

UP

BJP+    269    -53
SP+     129    +77
BSP         1     -18 !!!!
INC         2     -5
Others     2     -1  (this seems to be JDL)


Uttarakhand
BJP      48     -9
INC      18    +7
BSP        2    +2
AAP        0    --
Other      2    --


Goa
BJP      19     +6
INC+   12      -8
AITC+   3      --  (this is mostly MGP)
AAP       3     +3
Others   3     -1  (RG seems to have won 1 of the 3)


Punjab
AAP      92    +72
INC      18     -59
SAD+     4    -11 !!!
BJP+      2     -1
Others    1     -1   (this seems to be an independent which means LIP lost both their seats)


Manipur
BJP       29     +8
INC+      6    -22 !!!
NPP        9     +5
JD(U)     7     +7
Others    9     +2 (at least 5 is NPF, 2 is tribal based KPA)

[jaichind]

ECI vote share

UP
BJP       41.8% (does not include AD(S) and NISHAD)
SP+      35.2% (does not include SBSP AD(K) MD)
BSP      12.8%
INC        2.4%

 
Uttarakhand
BJP       44.3%
INC       38.0%
BSP        4.9%
AAP        3.4%


Goa  (it seems RG got a bunch of votes too)
BJP           33.4%
INC-GFP    24.2%
MAG-AITC  12.8%
AAP            6.8%


Punjab
AAP           42.1%
INC           22.9%
SAD-BSP   20.1%
BJP             6.6% (does not include PCL and SAD(S))

 

Manipur (these votes skew tribal areas so I expect NPF to go down)
BJP           37.2%
INC-CPI     16.9%
NPP           15.6%
JD(U)        10.7%
NPF            9.7%

[jaichind]

It is hard to see how the BJP will lose the 2024 LS elections.  In fact, if BJP continues to ally with AIADMK in TN there is a chance that NDA might gain seats relative to 2024 losing some seats in WB, Karanataka, and Maharastra but gaining in TN and Odisha while keeping its dominant position in Northern India.

Would you say the BJP is the most dominant party since the early 1970s INC at this point or not yet.

At the national level, they are getting to be at par with INC in the 1970s and 1980s.  At the state level, without Modi impact, they are weaker than INC during that period.   I compute a chart of state-level power index per year and BJP is more like INC in the early 1990s.  I will publish updated chart later when all the numbers come in.