Why did Reagan do so well in Michigan in 1984?
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August 10, 2022, 09:38:38 AM
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  Why did Reagan do so well in Michigan in 1984?
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Author Topic: Why did Reagan do so well in Michigan in 1984?  (Read 796 times)
Arbitrage1980
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« on: December 31, 2021, 07:04:50 PM »

Reagan underperformed in the Rust Belt compared to his national margin. But he won MI by 19 points and lost jut 1 county in the lower peninsula: Wayne. He even won Washtenaw, which went for McGovern.
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sg0508
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« Reply #1 on: January 01, 2022, 08:39:52 AM »

Maybe the farm crisis wasn't as prevalent there compared to the lowest midwest? That's all that I can really think of.  IA and WI were far weaker performances, with IA giving him one of his worst showings in the landslide.
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sg0508
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« Reply #2 on: January 01, 2022, 08:40:36 AM »

The other factor is like the "Reagan Democrats" in Oakland and other surrounding areas outside of Detroit.
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TDAS04
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« Reply #3 on: January 01, 2022, 10:11:36 AM »

McComb County is supposedly the home so-called "Reagan Democrats," and I guess Reagan's performance there surpassed that of Nixon greatly, especially Nixon's performance in 1968.
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UWS
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« Reply #4 on: January 01, 2022, 08:53:51 PM »

The Reagan Democrats are the reason. Especially since they represented a major part of the electorate in the Macomb County that is home to Warren, the third largest city in Michigan.
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Badger
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« Reply #5 on: January 05, 2022, 10:55:00 AM »

His results there were comparable to other areas in that region of the industrial Midwest lake Ohio and Illinois
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RaphaelDLG
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« Reply #6 on: January 06, 2022, 05:05:04 PM »

Totally pulling this out of my ass, but... more Catholic?
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Joe McCarthy Was Right
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« Reply #7 on: January 10, 2022, 04:06:21 PM »
« Edited: January 10, 2022, 04:12:54 PM by Joe McCarthy Was Right »

I think the southern transplants would be the reason it swung more Republican than say, Wisconsin (yes, WI had the farm crisis, but even the non-rural counties didn't swing nearly as much as the typical county in MI).
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GregTheGreat657
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« Reply #8 on: January 10, 2022, 04:30:50 PM »

McComb County is supposedly the home so-called "Reagan Democrats," and I guess Reagan's performance there surpassed that of Nixon greatly, especially Nixon's performance in 1968.
Humphrey won Macomb in a landslide (25 pts), while Nixon won it by a similar margin (28 pts). Ford won it narrowly (5 pts) likely due to a favorite son effect in 1976. In 1980, Reagan won it by a solid margin (11 pts), but only got .6% more of the vote than Ford. In 1984, Reagan won it a landslide (33 pts)
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Atomic-Statism
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« Reply #9 on: January 14, 2022, 01:06:01 PM »

That one still stumps me. Reagan defied trends in other Rust Belt states, winning working-class Macomb and Saginaw, while also flipping Washtenaw- home to the University of Michigan- against Mondale when he had been making inroads in "liberal elite" areas elsewhere. I always assumed it was a reaction to crime and something having to do with the state's notoriously bad race relations (1967 Detroit Rebellion fresh in memory and all that). I had wondered if Gerald Ford campaigned for Reagan that year but it doesn't look like it. Or maybe the United Auto Workers had some kind of beef with Mondale?
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Joe McCarthy Was Right
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« Reply #10 on: January 14, 2022, 01:52:47 PM »
« Edited: January 14, 2022, 01:55:51 PM by Joe McCarthy Was Right »

That one still stumps me. Reagan defied trends in other Rust Belt states, winning working-class Macomb and Saginaw, while also flipping Washtenaw- home to the University of Michigan- against Mondale when he had been making inroads in "liberal elite" areas elsewhere. I always assumed it was a reaction to crime and something having to do with the state's notoriously bad race relations (1967 Detroit Rebellion fresh in memory and all that). I had wondered if Gerald Ford campaigned for Reagan that year but it doesn't look like it. Or maybe the United Auto Workers had some kind of beef with Mondale?
Macomb County used to be relatively high income compared to the United States average. A Lawrence County PA it was not. But industries in Michigan have declined a lot since then.

https://www.nytimes.com/1972/09/19/archives/50-richest-counties-are-in-suburbs.html
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