2016: Former Governor Mitt Romney vs Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton

[OSR stands with Israel]

Say Romney decides to run again, and Trump doesn’t and he defeats Cruz for the nomination. How does he do against Hillary






Romney/Rubio 273
Clinton/Kaine 265


VA , CO , NH, WI are all decided by under a point

[OSR stands with Israel]

I'm not convinced that Romney would have carried NH, IA, or ME-2.

Romney lost in 2012 because he couldn't hide his elitism.  That, and his crass insincerity.  The only advantage of Trump that Romney would share was Hillary's negatives.  It would have been an election with minimal voter enthusiasm.

Obama approvals though weren’t that low in his first term in the aggregates for him to lose . His lowest average approvals in his first term was in 2011 and it was -1.4 and the reason is while Obama approvals did have major drops they would always quickly rebound so I don’t think that election was ever winnable . Also keep in mind Hillary even in 2008 trailed McCain in the polls in Iowa while Obama was way ahead so Obama always was a great fit for Iowa .

Also the most damaging attacks on Romney wouldn’t work for Hillary as Clinton was the one who permanently normalized trade relations with China and let them into the WTO while Romney had been railing against Chinese trade practices since 2007. She also couldn’t attack him on Wall Street as she too raised a lot of money from there

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_obama_job_approval-1044.html

[OSR stands with Israel]

On the one hand, Hillary Clinton turned out to be a really weak candidate in 2016, and the emails would have sunk her against a strong opponent.

On the other hand, Mitt Romney lost in 2012, there's no realistic way he wins the nomination again in 2016 (Paul Ryan had a much better chance from the 2012 ticket and he chose not to run), and even if he did, it's unlikely Putin would support him against Hillary, and even with Putin's support, it's unlikely Romney could tap into the Republican base enough to beat Hillary in 2016, after failing to do so to beat Obama in 2012.


Clinton fails to carry all three of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, losing Michigan because of Romney's roots in the Wolverine State, and Romney being the former Governor of Massachusetts allows him to run better than expected in New England, giving him a pickup of New Hampshire.

Other than that, Clinton sweeps the battlegrounds, with the exception of Iowa, including holding Ohio and Florida.

I don't think she picks Tim Kaine here. Given Romney is a harder opponent than Trump to beat, in her eyes, she probably picks someone with actual electoral benefits, or she picks Sanders to unite the Democratic Party.

Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (D-NY)/Senator Bernie Sanders (I/D-VT) 50%
Former Governor Mitt Romney (R-MA)/Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL) 46%

Why is MI to the right of OH

Romney's the son of a former Governor of Michigan who might have some residual popularity there due to his family name.

It's very, very bold to assume Romney would carry the state because his father was governor 50 years prior to that. Most Michigan voters probably don't even remember George Romney.

Keep in mind W easily lost CT in 2000 despite the fact the 2000 election was closer to when Prescott Bush was Senator than 2016 was to when George Romney was Governor.