2016: Former Governor Mitt Romney vs Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton
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  2016: Former Governor Mitt Romney vs Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton
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Author Topic: 2016: Former Governor Mitt Romney vs Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton  (Read 1659 times)
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Computer89
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« on: December 31, 2021, 03:02:04 PM »

Say Romney decides to run again, and Trump doesn’t and he defeats Cruz for the nomination. How does he do against Hillary






Romney/Rubio 273
Clinton/Kaine 265


VA , CO , NH, WI are all decided by under a point
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Fuzzy Stands With His Friend, Chairman Sanchez
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« Reply #1 on: December 31, 2021, 04:31:49 PM »

I'm not convinced that Romney would have carried NH, IA, or ME-2.

Romney lost in 2012 because he couldn't hide his elitism.  That, and his crass insincerity.  The only advantage of Trump that Romney would share was Hillary's negatives.  It would have been an election with minimal voter enthusiasm.
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Computer89
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« Reply #2 on: December 31, 2021, 09:02:14 PM »

I'm not convinced that Romney would have carried NH, IA, or ME-2.

Romney lost in 2012 because he couldn't hide his elitism.  That, and his crass insincerity.  The only advantage of Trump that Romney would share was Hillary's negatives.  It would have been an election with minimal voter enthusiasm.

Obama approvals though weren’t that low in his first term in the aggregates for him to lose . His lowest average approvals in his first term was in 2011 and it was -1.4 and the reason is while Obama approvals did have major drops they would always quickly rebound so I don’t think that election was ever winnable . Also keep in mind Hillary even in 2008 trailed McCain in the polls in Iowa while Obama was way ahead so Obama always was a great fit for Iowa .

Also the most damaging attacks on Romney wouldn’t work for Hillary as Clinton was the one who permanently normalized trade relations with China and let them into the WTO while Romney had been railing against Chinese trade practices since 2007. She also couldn’t attack him on Wall Street as she too raised a lot of money from there

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_obama_job_approval-1044.html
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #3 on: December 31, 2021, 09:04:55 PM »

See 2020 Map, with NC and FL flipped...possibly even TX.
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dw93
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« Reply #4 on: January 01, 2022, 12:17:14 PM »

Say Romney decides to run again, and Trump doesn’t and he defeats Cruz for the nomination. How does he do against Hillary






Romney/Rubio 273
Clinton/Kaine 265


VA , CO , NH, WI are all decided by under a point

Swap WI and CO and that would be the map IMHO.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #5 on: January 01, 2022, 02:17:44 PM »



✓ Former SoS Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-NY)/Senator Timothy M. Kaine (D-VA): 307 EV. (50.22%)
Former Governor Willard Mitt Romney (R-UT)/Governor Susana Martinez (D-NM): 231 EV. (46.89%)
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #6 on: January 01, 2022, 03:35:17 PM »

On the one hand, Hillary Clinton turned out to be a really weak candidate in 2016, and the emails would have sunk her against a strong opponent.

On the other hand, Mitt Romney lost in 2012, there's no realistic way he wins the nomination again in 2016 (Paul Ryan had a much better chance from the 2012 ticket and he chose not to run), and even if he did, it's unlikely Putin would support him against Hillary, and even with Putin's support, it's unlikely Romney could tap into the Republican base enough to beat Hillary in 2016, after failing to do so to beat Obama in 2012.


Clinton fails to carry all three of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, losing Michigan because of Romney's roots in the Wolverine State, and Romney being the former Governor of Massachusetts allows him to run better than expected in New England, giving him a pickup of New Hampshire.

Other than that, Clinton sweeps the battlegrounds, with the exception of Iowa, including holding Ohio and Florida.

I don't think she picks Tim Kaine here. Given Romney is a harder opponent than Trump to beat, in her eyes, she probably picks someone with actual electoral benefits, or she picks Sanders to unite the Democratic Party.

Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (D-NY)/Senator Bernie Sanders (I/D-VT) 50%
Former Governor Mitt Romney (R-MA)/Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL) 46%
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Chips
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« Reply #7 on: January 01, 2022, 10:37:26 PM »



306-232 or bust!
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Joe McCarthy Was Right
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« Reply #8 on: January 03, 2022, 12:50:24 AM »

Why would Romney lose Texas? He was exceptionally strong there in 2012.

I'm not high on Romney's chances in this scenario. From 2012 to 2016, I think he flips Florida, Ohio, and that's it. He wasn't particularly close in the "swing states" that he lost in 2012. When you asked people who lived in the Rust Belt swing states, the problem with Romney wasn't just his personality, they weren't big fans of his policies either.
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BigVic
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« Reply #9 on: January 03, 2022, 02:30:25 AM »



306-232 or bust!

Most likely with 306-232
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BigVic
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« Reply #10 on: May 10, 2022, 09:16:12 PM »

On the one hand, Hillary Clinton turned out to be a really weak candidate in 2016, and the emails would have sunk her against a strong opponent.

On the other hand, Mitt Romney lost in 2012, there's no realistic way he wins the nomination again in 2016 (Paul Ryan had a much better chance from the 2012 ticket and he chose not to run), and even if he did, it's unlikely Putin would support him against Hillary, and even with Putin's support, it's unlikely Romney could tap into the Republican base enough to beat Hillary in 2016, after failing to do so to beat Obama in 2012.


Clinton fails to carry all three of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, losing Michigan because of Romney's roots in the Wolverine State, and Romney being the former Governor of Massachusetts allows him to run better than expected in New England, giving him a pickup of New Hampshire.

Other than that, Clinton sweeps the battlegrounds, with the exception of Iowa, including holding Ohio and Florida.

I don't think she picks Tim Kaine here. Given Romney is a harder opponent than Trump to beat, in her eyes, she probably picks someone with actual electoral benefits, or she picks Sanders to unite the Democratic Party.

Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (D-NY)/Senator Bernie Sanders (I/D-VT) 50%
Former Governor Mitt Romney (R-MA)/Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL) 46%

Why is MI to the right of OH
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« Reply #11 on: May 10, 2022, 09:33:01 PM »

On the one hand, Hillary Clinton turned out to be a really weak candidate in 2016, and the emails would have sunk her against a strong opponent.

On the other hand, Mitt Romney lost in 2012, there's no realistic way he wins the nomination again in 2016 (Paul Ryan had a much better chance from the 2012 ticket and he chose not to run), and even if he did, it's unlikely Putin would support him against Hillary, and even with Putin's support, it's unlikely Romney could tap into the Republican base enough to beat Hillary in 2016, after failing to do so to beat Obama in 2012.


Clinton fails to carry all three of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, losing Michigan because of Romney's roots in the Wolverine State, and Romney being the former Governor of Massachusetts allows him to run better than expected in New England, giving him a pickup of New Hampshire.

Other than that, Clinton sweeps the battlegrounds, with the exception of Iowa, including holding Ohio and Florida.

I don't think she picks Tim Kaine here. Given Romney is a harder opponent than Trump to beat, in her eyes, she probably picks someone with actual electoral benefits, or she picks Sanders to unite the Democratic Party.

Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (D-NY)/Senator Bernie Sanders (I/D-VT) 50%
Former Governor Mitt Romney (R-MA)/Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL) 46%

Why is MI to the right of OH

Romney's the son of a former Governor of Michigan who might have some residual popularity there due to his family name.
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BigVic
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« Reply #12 on: May 10, 2022, 11:16:17 PM »

On the one hand, Hillary Clinton turned out to be a really weak candidate in 2016, and the emails would have sunk her against a strong opponent.

On the other hand, Mitt Romney lost in 2012, there's no realistic way he wins the nomination again in 2016 (Paul Ryan had a much better chance from the 2012 ticket and he chose not to run), and even if he did, it's unlikely Putin would support him against Hillary, and even with Putin's support, it's unlikely Romney could tap into the Republican base enough to beat Hillary in 2016, after failing to do so to beat Obama in 2012.


Clinton fails to carry all three of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, losing Michigan because of Romney's roots in the Wolverine State, and Romney being the former Governor of Massachusetts allows him to run better than expected in New England, giving him a pickup of New Hampshire.

Other than that, Clinton sweeps the battlegrounds, with the exception of Iowa, including holding Ohio and Florida.

I don't think she picks Tim Kaine here. Given Romney is a harder opponent than Trump to beat, in her eyes, she probably picks someone with actual electoral benefits, or she picks Sanders to unite the Democratic Party.

Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (D-NY)/Senator Bernie Sanders (I/D-VT) 50%
Former Governor Mitt Romney (R-MA)/Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL) 46%

Why is MI to the right of OH

Romney's the son of a former Governor of Michigan who might have some residual popularity there due to his family name.

The favourite son factor plays a role too
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President Johnson
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« Reply #13 on: May 11, 2022, 01:47:26 PM »

On the one hand, Hillary Clinton turned out to be a really weak candidate in 2016, and the emails would have sunk her against a strong opponent.

On the other hand, Mitt Romney lost in 2012, there's no realistic way he wins the nomination again in 2016 (Paul Ryan had a much better chance from the 2012 ticket and he chose not to run), and even if he did, it's unlikely Putin would support him against Hillary, and even with Putin's support, it's unlikely Romney could tap into the Republican base enough to beat Hillary in 2016, after failing to do so to beat Obama in 2012.


Clinton fails to carry all three of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, losing Michigan because of Romney's roots in the Wolverine State, and Romney being the former Governor of Massachusetts allows him to run better than expected in New England, giving him a pickup of New Hampshire.

Other than that, Clinton sweeps the battlegrounds, with the exception of Iowa, including holding Ohio and Florida.

I don't think she picks Tim Kaine here. Given Romney is a harder opponent than Trump to beat, in her eyes, she probably picks someone with actual electoral benefits, or she picks Sanders to unite the Democratic Party.

Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (D-NY)/Senator Bernie Sanders (I/D-VT) 50%
Former Governor Mitt Romney (R-MA)/Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL) 46%

Why is MI to the right of OH

Romney's the son of a former Governor of Michigan who might have some residual popularity there due to his family name.

It's very, very bold to assume Romney would carry the state because his father was governor 50 years prior to that. Most Michigan voters probably don't even remember George Romney.
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OSR stands with Israel
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« Reply #14 on: May 11, 2022, 02:20:11 PM »

On the one hand, Hillary Clinton turned out to be a really weak candidate in 2016, and the emails would have sunk her against a strong opponent.

On the other hand, Mitt Romney lost in 2012, there's no realistic way he wins the nomination again in 2016 (Paul Ryan had a much better chance from the 2012 ticket and he chose not to run), and even if he did, it's unlikely Putin would support him against Hillary, and even with Putin's support, it's unlikely Romney could tap into the Republican base enough to beat Hillary in 2016, after failing to do so to beat Obama in 2012.


Clinton fails to carry all three of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, losing Michigan because of Romney's roots in the Wolverine State, and Romney being the former Governor of Massachusetts allows him to run better than expected in New England, giving him a pickup of New Hampshire.

Other than that, Clinton sweeps the battlegrounds, with the exception of Iowa, including holding Ohio and Florida.

I don't think she picks Tim Kaine here. Given Romney is a harder opponent than Trump to beat, in her eyes, she probably picks someone with actual electoral benefits, or she picks Sanders to unite the Democratic Party.

Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (D-NY)/Senator Bernie Sanders (I/D-VT) 50%
Former Governor Mitt Romney (R-MA)/Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL) 46%

Why is MI to the right of OH

Romney's the son of a former Governor of Michigan who might have some residual popularity there due to his family name.

It's very, very bold to assume Romney would carry the state because his father was governor 50 years prior to that. Most Michigan voters probably don't even remember George Romney.

Keep in mind W easily lost CT in 2000 despite the fact the 2000 election was closer to when Prescott Bush was Senator than 2016 was to when George Romney was Governor.
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« Reply #15 on: May 11, 2022, 02:56:22 PM »



Hillary was a very unpopular candidate; especially after the Comey letter, almost any Republican would have beaten her.

Romney would not run up the same margins as Trump in WWC areas, but he would make up for that with a much better performance in college-educated areas.
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« Reply #16 on: May 11, 2022, 05:07:57 PM »



306-232 or bust!

Actually, I now think Romney would've won WI on top of this. 316-222.
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #17 on: May 13, 2022, 05:00:11 PM »

I actually thought this election would happen back in 2014/early 2015, predicted Mittens would run again and it would be pretty much a toss-up between him and HRC. Thought that was likelier than Jeb! as the nominee even then.

I think Hillary PROBABLY holds on to the freiwal and squeaks out a win, but could see it going either way. Romney probably still gets spanked among Hispanic voters. We could well see a VERY close repeat of 2012 with less voter enthusiasm. Probably Romney narrowly flips FL and OH but maybe not much if anything else?
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Spark
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« Reply #18 on: June 28, 2022, 06:36:54 PM »
« Edited: June 28, 2022, 06:46:45 PM by Senator-elect Spark »



Fmr. Sec. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) / Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ) - 276 EVs, 49.1%
Fmr. Gov. Mitt Romney (R-MA) / Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) - 255 EVs, 47.4%
Others / Faithless electors - 7 EVs, 3.5%

Romney's path would have been remarkably different than Trump's and probably would have went through the Sun Belt. We also would still have a ton of faithless electors. This could have been a winnable race for the Republicans but Romney makes a lot of gaffes. Romney also runs to the left on immigration supporting amnesty, which was out of tune with the national mood in 2016. That costs him the Rust Belt.
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #19 on: June 28, 2022, 07:13:36 PM »

On the one hand, Hillary Clinton turned out to be a really weak candidate in 2016, and the emails would have sunk her against a strong opponent.

On the other hand, Mitt Romney lost in 2012, there's no realistic way he wins the nomination again in 2016 (Paul Ryan had a much better chance from the 2012 ticket and he chose not to run), and even if he did, it's unlikely Putin would support him against Hillary, and even with Putin's support, it's unlikely Romney could tap into the Republican base enough to beat Hillary in 2016, after failing to do so to beat Obama in 2012.


Clinton fails to carry all three of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, losing Michigan because of Romney's roots in the Wolverine State, and Romney being the former Governor of Massachusetts allows him to run better than expected in New England, giving him a pickup of New Hampshire.

Other than that, Clinton sweeps the battlegrounds, with the exception of Iowa, including holding Ohio and Florida.

I don't think she picks Tim Kaine here. Given Romney is a harder opponent than Trump to beat, in her eyes, she probably picks someone with actual electoral benefits, or she picks Sanders to unite the Democratic Party.

Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (D-NY)/Senator Bernie Sanders (I/D-VT) 50%
Former Governor Mitt Romney (R-MA)/Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL) 46%

Why is MI to the right of OH

Romney's the son of a former Governor of Michigan who might have some residual popularity there due to his family name.

It's very, very bold to assume Romney would carry the state because his father was governor 50 years prior to that. Most Michigan voters probably don't even remember George Romney.

Keep in mind W easily lost CT in 2000 despite the fact the 2000 election was closer to when Prescott Bush was Senator than 2016 was to when George Romney was Governor.

Or how about the fact that Romney lost MI by 10 points in 2012.
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